Venue and Race Overview
Aqueduct Racetrack is located at 110-00 Rockaway Blvd, South Ozone Park, Queens, New York City, NY 11420. The Busanda Stakes, a $150,000 ungraded stakes race for 3-year-old fillies, is scheduled for Saturday, January 3, 2026, with a post time of approximately 12:10 PM ET (based on the card’s progression from Race 1 at 9:10 AM ET, with races spaced about 30 minutes apart). This one-mile dirt race is a key Kentucky Oaks prep, awarding Road to the Kentucky Oaks qualifying points on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale to the top five finishers. With a field of six, it features a one-turn setup on Aqueduct’s main dirt track, which tends to favor horses with early speed or strong stalking ability, often rewarding those who can handle a brisk pace without fading.
Expected Weather and Track Conditions
Forecasts for South Ozone Park, NY, on January 3, 2026, indicate a high of 43°F and a low of 36°F, with partly cloudy skies and a 25% chance of precipitation (possibly light rain or flurries). Winds are expected at around 8 mph from the northwest.
These mild winter conditions should result in a fast dirt track, though any moisture could soften it to “good.” Aqueduct’s surface is well-maintained for winter racing and typically plays fair, but speed biases may emerge if the rail is advantageous.
Field Analysis
This competitive field of six includes stakes winners like Dazzling Dame (multiple stakes victor) and Shilling (recent Aqueduct stakes winner), alongside promising types like Believable (from top connections) and Britain (Chad Brown trainee). Dazzling Dame boasts the highest speed figures and form, while Shilling has local success. The one-mile distance suits stretch-runners, but early pace from Two Bits or Midnite Ginny could set up closers. Below is a detailed breakdown, including post position, jockey, trainer, estimated morning line odds (based on form, speed figures, and connections, as official lines may vary), weights (all at 123 lbs per stakes conditions), recent finishes, and analysis. Odds estimates: Dazzling Dame (2-1), Shilling (3-1), Believable (4-1), Britain (5-1), Two Bits (6-1), Midnite Ginny (10-1).
| Post | Horse Name | Jockey | Trainer | Morning Line Odds | Weight | Recent Finishes | Analysis |
| 1 | Midnite Ginny | Sahin Civaci | Jose Lozano Sanchez | 10-1 | 123 lbs | 9/15/25: 1st (Monmouth Park, 5½f MSW, won gate-to-wire, speed rating 80); 10/25/25: 5th (Laurel Park, 1m allowance); Limited other starts, broke maiden impressively. | This dark bay/brown filly by Cloud Computing enters off a maiden win but steps up significantly in class. Her speed figure (80) is the field’s lowest, suggesting she may struggle against proven stakes company, but the inside post allows a ground-saving trip. Jockey Civaci (solid with front-runners) and trainer Lozano Sanchez (developing talent) could help her press the pace early, but she’s likely outclassed unless improving sharply. Best as an exotic filler. Owner: David N. Heaton LLC. Earnings: ~$50,000. racenet.com.au +1 |
| 2 | Britain | Manuel Franco | Chad C. Brown | 5-1 | 123 lbs | 11/22/25: 2nd (Aqueduct, 7f allowance, rallied late, speed rating 91); 10/10/25: 1st (Belmont at Aqueduct, 6f MSW); Debuted with 4th in sprint. | A bay filly by Quality Road, she broke her maiden impressively and showed closing kick in her allowance placing. Trainer Brown (elite with turf-to-dirt switches, 25% win rate in stakes) has her stretching to a mile, which her pedigree supports. Jockey Franco (Aqueduct specialist) knows how to rate her; she could benefit from a pace meltdown. Solid contender with upside. Owner: Amo Racing USA LLC. Earnings: ~$85,000. bloodhorse.com |
| 3 | Shilling | Christopher Elliott | Kenneth G. McPeek | 3-1 | 123 lbs | 12/6/25: 4th (Aqueduct, 1⅛m Demoiselle G2, faded late, speed rating 97); 11/6/25: 1st (Aqueduct, 1m Tempted S., won by 4 lengths); 10/16/25: 1st (Belmont at Aqueduct, 6f MSW). | This bay filly by Global Campaign is battle-tested, with a stakes win in the Tempted and a respectable effort in the longer Demoiselle where she pressed but tired. Cutting back to one mile suits her tactical speed. Trainer McPeek (strong with fillies, recent stakes success) and jockey Elliott add confidence; she’s a local specialist with two Aqueduct wins. Top threat if she avoids a duel. Owner: Fern Circle Stables. Earnings: ~$200,000. nyra.com +3 |
| 4 | Two Bits | Jaime Rodriguez | Amelia J. Green | 6-1 | 123 lbs | 11/30/25: 1st (Aqueduct, 7f allowance, overcame trouble, speed rating 106); 10/15/25: 2nd (Laurel Park, 6f MSW); Workouts strong since. | A bay filly by American Pharoah, she rallied despite bumping in her last win, posting a sharp 106 speed figure. Trainer Green (emerging with routers) has her in good form, and jockey Rodriguez (aggressive rider) could position her mid-pack. The stretch to a mile is a question, but her pedigree screams distance. Value play with potential to upset. Owner: EGL-One Racing. Earnings: ~$75,000. paulickreport.com +2 |
| 5 | Dazzling Dame | Jevian Toledo | Brittany T. Russell | 2-1 | 123 lbs | 10/11/25: 1st (Delaware Park, 1m stakes, wire-to-wire); 9/13/25: 1st (Churchill Downs, 1m Pocahontas G3, dominant); 8/17/25: 1st (Monmouth Park, 6f stakes); 6/27/25: 2nd (Laurel Park, 5½f MSW). | This bay Maryland-bred filly by Girvin is 3-for-4 lifetime, with stakes wins in her last three, including the graded Pocahontas. Her 109 speed figure towers over the field, and she’s versatile (front or stalk). Trainer Russell (hot with juveniles) and jockey Toledo (her regular pilot) make her the one to beat. Post 5 allows options; high win chance (~35% per models). Owner: Respect the Valleys, LLC. Earnings: ~$300,000. paulickreport.com +3 |
| 6 | Believable | Flavien Prat | Todd A. Pletcher | 4-1 | 123 lbs | 12/6/25: 3rd (Aqueduct, 1⅛m Demoiselle G2, rallied for show); 11/6/25: 2nd (Aqueduct, 1m Tempted S., beaten 4 lengths by Shilling); 9/28/25: 1st (Belmont at Aqueduct, 6f MSW, photo finish); Speed rating 88 last. | A bay filly by Curlin, she’s from strong bloodlines (full sister to graded winner Tenfold) and showed promise with a maiden win and stakes placings. Trainer Pletcher (Hall of Famer, excels in preps) and jockey Prat (elite closer) suit her late-running style. Outer post helps her avoid traffic; rematch with Shilling adds intrigue. Contender if pace sets up. Owner: Repole Stable. Earnings: ~$150,000. thoroughbreddailynews.com +3 |
