Race Overview
The Red Hedeman Mile Stakes is set for Sunday, February 15, 2026, at Sunland Park Racetrack & Casino in Sunland Park, New Mexico. This venue, situated near the borders of Texas and Mexico just outside El Paso, features a one-mile dirt oval and is celebrated for its winter racing meet, including prominent Kentucky Derby preps like the Sunland Derby. The track’s dirt surface generally favors speed but can accommodate closers in routes if the pace is contested.
The race is Race 6 on a 10-race card, with a scheduled post time of 2:43 PM MT (4:43 PM ET). It’s restricted to 3-year-old registered New Mexico-breds, contested over one mile on dirt, with a purse of $100,000 (including $50,000 from the New Mexico Horse Breeders Association). All horses carry 122 lbs, and Lasix is not permitted. This stakes attracts emerging local talent, often serving as a stepping stone for bigger races. The field of nine features multiple entrants from trainer Todd Fincher, suggesting a tactical battle with speed likely prominent.
Expected weather conditions in Sunland Park on February 15, based on forecasts, include mostly cloudy skies with a high of 73°F and a low around 42°F. Winds from the southwest at 8-10 mph, humidity around 21-24%, and no chance of precipitation (0%). The track should be fast and dry, with the clouds providing mild conditions that could benefit horses with stamina in the final furlong.
The race shape points to a moderate pace, with several forwardly placed types. Equipment change: #2 Apremont adds blinkers, which may enhance his early focus.
Field Analysis (By Post Position)
Risk Capital (NM)
- Post Position: 1
- Morning Line Odds: 20/1
- Jockey: Olaf Hernandez (local rider with 15% win rate at Sunland; patient and effective from inside posts in routes).
- Trainer: Todd W. Fincher (top trainer at the meet with ~25% wins; excels with state-breds and has multiple entrants here).
- Breeding: Marking – Souma (by Mr. Greeley). Sire Marking brings consistent dirt stamina, dam adds class from graded lines.
- Recent Finishes: Lightly raced with promise. Last out: 3rd in allowance (7f dirt, fast) at Sunland on 1/18/2026, Equibase Speed Figure (ESF) 82, closing ground late. Before: Broke maiden at Zia Park (6f dirt, fast) on 12/15/2025, ESF 78. Track conditions: Fast dirt in both.
- Analysis: Longshot at 20/1, but the rail allows ground-saving tactics. Fincher’s involvement boosts confidence, and pedigree suggests he’ll handle the mile. If the pace softens under cloudy skies, his late kick could surprise for exotics.
Apremont (NM)
- Post Position: 2
- Morning Line Odds: 30/1
- Jockey: Francisco Amparan (reliable local with 11% wins; good at settling horses early).
- Trainer: Simon J. Buechler (steady ~10% wins; specializes in longshots with equipment tweaks).
- Breeding: Sporting Chance – Avail (by Elusive Quality). Sire imparts grit, dam adds tactical speed.
- Recent Finishes: Improving but needs more. Last out: 5th in maiden special weight (6 1/2f dirt, fast) at Sunland on 1/25/2026, ESF 70, even effort. Prior: Debut 4th at Zia Park (5 1/2f dirt, fast) on 11/28/2025, ESF 65. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
- Analysis: Outsider odds, but blinkers on could sharpen him from the good post. Pedigree leans toward routes; Buechler’s prep might yield a board hit if frontrunners tire. Mild winds favor his style, but he’s a deep closer play.
Speed Merchant (NM)
- Post Position: 3
- Morning Line Odds: 6/5
- Jockey: Luis A. Valenzuela (veteran with 18% wins; tactical in stakes routes).
- Trainer: Todd W. Fincher (see above; his second entrant, hot with young stock).
- Breeding: Marking – Keep Your Promise (by Broken Vow). Sire stamina, dam reliability.
- Recent Finishes: Dominant form. Last out: 1st in allowance (7f dirt, fast) at Sunland on 1/11/2026, ESF 92, wire-to-wire. Before: Maiden win at Zia Park (6f dirt, fast) on 12/8/2025, ESF 88. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
- Analysis: Clear favorite at 6/5, deservedly so. Post suits pressing the pace, and Fincher’s barn is firing. Pedigree perfect for the mile; fast track under clouds enhances his speed. The one to beat.
M G Rojo Loco (NM)
- Post Position: 4
- Morning Line Odds: 30/1
- Jockey: Miguel A. Perez (aggressive with 12% wins; suits speed types).
- Trainer: Martin L. Hernandez (consistent ~9% wins; good with local owners).
- Breeding: Metaboss – Halfapondarosa (by More Than Ready). Sire endurance, dam sprint influence.
- Recent Finishes: Spotty but upside. Last out: 6th in maiden (6f dirt, fast) at Sunland on 1/4/2026, ESF 68. Prior: 2nd debut at Zia Park (5f dirt, fast) on 11/20/2025, ESF 72. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
- Analysis: Longshot, but mid-pack draw allows options. Pedigree may stretch; if pace hot, he rallies. Exotic filler in a dry, fast setup.
Flash of Valor (NM)
- Post Position: 5
- Morning Line Odds: 12/1
- Jockey: Luis Negron (strong 20% wins at Sunland; excels with stalkers).
- Trainer: Justin R. Evans (leading with ~25% wins; sharp with imports and young horses).
- Breeding: Marking – Roll On Matilda (by Roll Hennessy Roll). Sire class, dam local speed.
- Recent Finishes: Progressing. Last out: 2nd in allowance (6 1/2f dirt, fast) at Sunland on 1/25/2026, ESF 85, strong close. Before: Maiden win at Zia Park (6f dirt, fast) on 12/22/2025, ESF 82. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
- Analysis: Value at 12/1 from versatile post. Evans’ form boosts him; pedigree suits distance. If clouds keep track firm, his kick plays well.
Reads Artful Run (NM)
- Post Position: 6
- Morning Line Odds: 15/1
- Jockey: Enrique Portillo Gomez (versatile 12% wins; good closer).
- Trainer: Edgar Moreno (solid ~11% wins; owner-trainer setup).
- Breeding: Artful Run – Courageous Cara (by Waki Indy). Sire speed, dam heart.
- Recent Finishes: Even efforts. Last out: 4th in maiden (7f dirt, fast) at Sunland on 1/18/2026, ESF 78. Prior: 3rd debut at Zia Park (6f dirt, fast) on 12/1/2025, ESF 75. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
- Analysis: Mid-price longshot; post suits rally. Pedigree for routes; mild weather aids stamina. Exotic potential.
Vanishing Money (NM)
- Post Position: 7
- Morning Line Odds: 3/1
- Jockey: Alfredo J. Juarez, Jr. (stakes specialist with 20% wins).
- Trainer: Dick Cappellucci (hot ~22% wins; strong in NM-bred stakes).
- Breeding: Conquest Mo Money – Cavetto (GB) (by Oasis Dream (GB)). Sire value, dam international class.
- Recent Finishes: Classy. Last out: 1st in stakes prep (7f dirt, fast) at Sunland on 1/4/2026, ESF 90. Before: Allowance win at Zia Park (6 1/2f dirt, fast) on 12/15/2025, ESF 87. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
- Analysis: Strong second choice at 3/1. Wide post ok with Juarez; Cappellucci’s streak shines. Pedigree edges in dry conditions; major threat.
Buy Local (NM)
- Post Position: 8
- Morning Line Odds: 6/1
- Jockey: Christian Ramos (up-and-coming 13% wins; strong finisher).
- Trainer: Todd W. Fincher (see above; third entrant).
- Breeding: Sporting Chance – African Heat (by Southwestern Heat). Sire upside, dam local heat.
- Recent Finishes: Consistent. Last out: 2nd in allowance (1m dirt, fast) at Sunland on 1/11/2026, ESF 86. Before: Maiden romp at Zia Park (6f dirt, fast) on 11/28/2025, ESF 84. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
- Analysis: Appealing at 6/1; outside stalk suits. Fincher’s depth helps; fast track favors.
Cash Waterfall (NM)
- Post Position: 9
- Morning Line Odds: 4/1
- Jockey: Oscar Andrade, Jr. (aggressive 14% wins).
- Trainer: Todd W. Fincher (see above; fourth entrant).
- Breeding: Sporting Chance – Pink Cadillac (by Diabolical). Sire talent, dam speed.
- Recent Finishes: Peaking. Last out: 1st in allowance (7f dirt, fast) at Sunland on 1/25/2026, ESF 89. Before: Stakes place at Zia Park (6f dirt, fast) on 12/8/2025, ESF 85. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
- Analysis: Solid at 4/1 from wide draw. Fincher’s army; pedigree for mile. If pace collapses, he wins.
