Race Overview
The Laffit Pincay, Jr. Stakes is a Grade II dirt stakes race for 3-year-olds and up, contested over 1 1/16 miles with a $200,000 purse. Named in honor of the Hall of Fame jockey, this event is Race 6 on an 11-race card at Santa Anita Park, located at 285 W Huntington Dr, Arcadia, CA 91007. The race is scheduled to start at approximately 1:30 PM PT on Sunday, December 28, 2025, with the first post of the day at 11:00 AM PT.
Santa Anita’s main dirt track is a one-mile oval, and this race features two turns. Following heavy rains that postponed the original opening day from December 26, the track conditions for December 28 are expected to be fast on dirt, as the surface drains well and crews have prepared it accordingly. However, if afternoon showers materialize, it could turn sloppy or muddy, favoring horses with wet-track pedigree or form.
Expected Weather Conditions
The forecast for Arcadia, CA, on December 28, 2025, predicts mostly cloudy skies with highs of 63-66°F and lows around 43°F. Winds will be light from the south at 5-10 mph, with a 60% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms, potentially adding 0.25-0.5 inches of rain. Humidity will hover around 70%, and while the morning should be dry, any precipitation could impact later races. This follows a wet week, so the ground may remain soft. Bettors should favor horses proven in off conditions, and attendees are advised to bring rain gear and layers for the cool, damp day.
Field Analysis
Seven horses are entered in this Grade II test, featuring a clash of top Baffert trainees. Below is a detailed breakdown, including post position (PP), recent finishes (form figures, most recent on the right; e.g., 121 means 1st, 2nd, 1st), jockey, trainer, strengths/weaknesses, and prospects. Morning line odds (ML) are listed. Analysis includes pedigree, speed figures (Beyer where available), and notes. All carry 122-124 lbs.
Nysos (PP 1, ML 3/5)
Jockey: Flavien Prat (leading rider with 25% win rate at Santa Anita; excels in big races).
Trainer: Bob Baffert (Hall of Famer with 30% win rate in graded stakes; dominates dirt routes).
Recent Finishes: 112 (1st in Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Nov 1 at Del Mar, 1st in San Diego H July, 2nd in Churchill Downs S May 3; Beyers: 105+).
Analysis: 4YO colt by Nyquist out of Zetta Z (Bernardini mare); $550,000 yearling. Strengths: Dominant closer with tactical speed; proven at Grade 1 level; rail post saves ground. Weaknesses: Returning from short layoff; bruised hoof scratched him from Pacific Classic earlier. Prospects: Heavy favorite with class edge; should control if fit, targeting bigger goals in 2026.
Vodka Vodka (PP 2, ML 20/1)
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux (veteran with 15% win rate; knows Santa Anita well).
Trainer: Vladimir Cerin (solid 18% win rate in allowances; targets California races).
Recent Finishes: 345 (3rd in allowance at Del Mar Nov, 4th in optional claimer Oct, 5th prior; mid-90s Beyers).
Analysis: 4YO colt by Stay Thirsty out of Margie’s Minute; California-bred. Strengths: Inside speed; could stalk leaders. Weaknesses: Lacks stakes form; class rise is steep. Prospects: Longshot for pace pressure; minor award possible if frontrunners duel.
Nevada Beach (PP 3, ML 2/1)
Jockey: Juan Hernandez (aggressive with 22% win rate; strong on Baffert horses).
Trainer: Bob Baffert (as above; master with routers).
Recent Finishes: 171 (1st in Native Diver G3 Nov 22 at Del Mar, 7th in BC Classic Nov 1, 1st in Goodwood G1 Sept 27; Beyers: 101+).
Analysis: 3YO colt by Omaha Beach out of Morrow Cove (Yes It’s True mare). Strengths: Versatile stalker; multiple G1/G3 wins; loves Santa Anita. Weaknesses: Wide post may force energy use; rebounded from BC dud. Prospects: Top contender to duel stablemate; could wire if loose.
Cornishman (PP 4, ML 8/1)
Jockey: Ricky Gonzalez (journeyman with 12% win rate; handles longshots).
Trainer: Dan McFarlane (15% win rate; upset specialist).
Recent Finishes: 121 (1st in Cornhusker G3 July 5 at Prairie Meadows, 2nd in prep June, 1st allowance prior; Beyers: 98+).
Analysis: 4YO gelding by Curlin out of Penwith (Bernardini mare). Strengths: Proven stayer; wide-trip grinder. Weaknesses: Ships from Midwest; adapts to California dirt? Prospects: Value upsetter if pace sets up; strong closer.
British Isles (PP 5, ML 5/1)
Jockey: Diego Herrera (up-and-comer with 16% win rate; tactical).
Trainer: Richard Baltas (18% in routes; turf-to-dirt expert).
Recent Finishes: 262 (2nd in Native Diver G3 Nov 22, 6th turf stakes Oct, 2nd allowance prior; Beyers: 99).
Analysis: 4YO gelding by Justify out of turf-oriented dam. Strengths: Improving on dirt; late kick. Weaknesses: Turf background; mid-pack draw. Prospects: Live threat off recent near-miss; could rally if speed falters.
Indispensable (PP 6, ML 10/1)
Jockey: Joel Rosario (Hall of Famer with 23% win rate; great closer).
Trainer: John Sadler (20% in stakes; develops improvers).
Recent Finishes: 131 (1st allowance Nov at Del Mar, 3rd stakes Oct, 1st prior; Beyers: 95+).
Analysis: 4YO colt with route pedigree. Strengths: Momentum from wins; jockey upgrade. Weaknesses: Class test; outer post risks. Prospects: Mid-odds value; could factor in exotics.
Bartholdy (PP 7, ML 12/1)
Jockey: Tyler Baze (versatile with 14% win rate; suits stretch-outs).
Trainer: Steve Knapp (15% allowances; sprinter specialist).
Recent Finishes: 121 (1st allowance Nov 30 at Del Mar 6.5f, 2nd prior, 1st sprint; Beyers: 97).
Analysis: 4YO gelding stretching from sprints. Strengths: Sharp form; upset potential. Weaknesses: Distance question; wide draw. Prospects: Bomber if adapts to route; underneath play.
