Race Overview
The Mathis Mile Stakes is a Grade II turf stakes race for 3-year-old colts and geldings, run over 1 mile on the turf course. This event carries a $200,000 purse and is Race 5 on an 11-race card at Santa Anita Park, located at 285 W Huntington Dr, Arcadia, CA 91007. The race is scheduled to start at 1:05 PM PT on Sunday, December 28, 2025, with the first post of the day at 11:00 AM PT.
Santa Anita’s turf course is a downhill layout for sprints but flat for this one-turn mile, with the rail set at 0 feet. Following heavy rains earlier in the week that prompted a postponement of opening day from December 26, track conditions for December 28 are expected to be good to yielding on the turf, as maintenance crews have worked to drain and firm the surface. The dirt track should be fast, but any additional moisture could affect off-turf scenarios—though officials have indicated intent to keep stakes on grass.
Expected Weather Conditions
The forecast for Arcadia, CA, on December 28, 2025, calls for mostly cloudy skies with a high of 63-65°F and lows around 43-44°F. Winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph, with a 60% chance of showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon, potentially bringing 0.25-0.5 inches of rain. This follows a wet week, so humidity will be high (around 70%), and any precipitation could soften the turf further. Bettors should watch for updates, as wet conditions may favor European imports or horses with proven soft-ground form. Attendees should prepare for cool, damp weather with layers and rain gear.
Field Analysis
Seven horses are entered in this competitive Grade II, with a mix of domestic and international talent. Below is a detailed breakdown of each entrant, including starting position (post position, or PP), recent finishes (form figures, most recent on the right; e.g., 123 means 1st, 2nd, 3rd in last three starts), jockey, trainer, key strengths/weaknesses, and prospects. Morning line odds (ML) are provided. Analysis incorporates pedigree, speed figures (e.g., Equibase or Beyer equivalents), and trainer notes. All carry 120-122 lbs, with allowances for non-winners.
Hiding in Honduras (PP 1, ML 6/1)
Jockey: Antonio Fresu (rising star with 18% win rate at Santa Anita; excels on turf routers).
Trainer: Jonathan Thomas (strong 22% win rate in graded turf stakes; develops patient closers).
Recent Finishes: 243 (2nd in a Del Mar allowance two back, 4th in a Santa Anita optional claimer last out, 3rd prior at Belmont).
Analysis: This 3-year-old gelding (Equibase speed figure: 104) is by Dialed In out of La Moneda, with stamina-oriented breeding. Strengths: Inside post for ground-saving trip; sharp recent workouts (5f in 59.4 at Santa Anita). Weaknesses: Lacks graded experience; may need a hot pace to close into on potentially soft turf. Prospects: Value as a mid-pack stalker; could rally for a minor share if the leaders tire.
Tempus Volat (PP 2, ML 9/2)
Jockey: Mirco Demuro (international veteran with 20% win rate in U.S. stakes; tactical on speed types).
Trainer: Leonard Powell (15% win rate on turf; specializes in European-style routers).
Recent Finishes: 132 (1st in a Churchill allowance last out, 3rd in a Keeneland stakes two back, 2nd prior at Del Mar).
Analysis: 3-year-old colt (speed figure: 98) by Not This Time, with War Front influence for turf affinity. Strengths: Proven at the mile; carries 122 lbs as a stakes winner; adaptable to soft ground. Weaknesses: Inside draw may force early commitment; inconsistent in traffic. Prospects: Strong contender to press the pace; trainer notes he’s peaking for this spot.
Namaron (GER) (PP 3, ML 3/2)
Jockey: Flavien Prat (top Santa Anita rider with 25% win rate; master of turf trips).
Trainer: John W. Sadler (high 28% in graded stakes; excels with imports).
Recent Finishes: 211 (2nd overseas two back, 1st in Del Mar restricted stakes last out, 1st prior in Germany).
Analysis: German-bred 3-year-old gelding (speed figure: 120) by Amaron, adding blinkers for focus. Strengths: Untapped potential; dominant in U.S. debut; loves soft turf per pedigree. Weaknesses: Class hike to Grade II; needs clean break from mid-post. Prospects: Morning-line favorite with upside; could dominate if he handles the pace.
Geometry (PP 4, ML 12/1)
Jockey: Joel Rosario (Hall of Famer with 23% win rate; great on closers).
Trainer: Jonathan Thomas (dual entry here; 20% in turf miles).
Recent Finishes: 453 (4th last out at Aqueduct, 5th two back at Belmont, 3rd prior at Saratoga).
Analysis: 3-year-old gelding (speed figure: 97) by Twirling Candy out of Vanishing. Strengths: Removing blinkers for sharper focus; pedigree suits mile. Weaknesses: Recent form dip; outer post risks wide trip on soft ground. Prospects: Longshot with barnmate support; could surprise in exotics if pace melts.
Friendly Confines (PP 5, ML 7/2)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (elite with 26% win rate; wins big turf stakes).
Trainer: Richard Baltas (18% on turf; targets California meets).
Recent Finishes: 122 (1st two back in allowance, 2nd last out in stakes prep, 2nd prior).
Analysis: 3-year-old colt (speed figure: 96) by Twirling Candy, half to graded placers. Strengths: Consistent form; jockey upgrade; tactical speed for any ground. Weaknesses: Mid-field draw may require energy early. Prospects: Live second choice; strong closing kick makes him a win threat.
Lyle The Crocodile (IRE) (PP 6, ML 12/1)
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli (22% win rate at Santa Anita; aggressive on imports).
Trainer: Philip D’Amato (top turf trainer at 24%; masters European shippers).
Recent Finishes: 314 (3rd last out at Del Mar, 1st two back in Ireland, 4th prior overseas).
Analysis: Irish-bred 3-year-old gelding (speed figure: 107) by Inns of Court. Strengths: Barn’s success with similar types; soft turf suits pedigree. Weaknesses: Wide post could lead to ground loss; adapting to U.S. style. Prospects: Upset potential if he settles early; value for underneath spots.
Maaz (FR) (PP 7, ML 5/1)
Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz (versatile with 21% win rate; strong finisher).
Trainer: Michael W. McCarthy (19% in stakes; develops late bloomers).
Recent Finishes: 231 (2nd last out in allowance, 3rd two back in graded try, 1st prior in France).
Analysis: French-bred 3-year-old gelding (speed figure: 94) by Galiway. Strengths: Closing style; Eclipse Thoroughbreds ownership signals confidence. Weaknesses: Outermost post risks wide rally on tiring turf. Prospects: Solid mid-odds play; could close for win if pace is hot.
