The Borderplex Stakes is a $65,000 stakes race for three-year-old fillies, contested over 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt. This event serves as a prep for higher-profile races like the Sunland Park Oaks later in the season and attracts a compact but competitive field of lightly raced sophomores. Sunland Park’s dirt track favors speed horses with tactical versatility, and with a small field of five, expect a straightforward pace scenario without much traffic trouble. The race draws from New Mexico’s strong local breeding programs, with several entrants showing promise in maiden and allowance company. Boston’s recent dominance in similar spots makes them a strong play, but Seattle’s home-ice energy could force a close finish.
Venue Location
Sunland Park Racetrack & Casino, 1200 Futurity Drive, Sunland Park, New Mexico 88063. The track is a one-mile dirt oval with a seven-furlong chute, known for its fair surface and speed-favoring bias in shorter races.
Post Time is scheduled for 2:09 p.m. MT (4:09 p.m. ET / 1:09 p.m. PT). This is Race 5 on a nine-race card, with the first post at 12:25 p.m. MT.
Expected Weather Conditions
Sunny skies with a high of 61-65°F and lows around 31°F. Winds light and variable (under 5 mph), with no precipitation expected. Humidity around 26%, making for comfortable racing conditions. The dry, mild weather should ensure a fast track without any moisture-related biases.
accuweather.com +3
Track ConditionsThe dirt track at Sunland Park is expected to be rated “fast” given the sunny, dry forecast with no recent rain. Sunland’s surface typically plays fair but slightly favors inside speed in sprints, with a historical win rate of 28% for horses breaking from posts 1-3 in 6-7 furlong races. No major biases reported from recent cards, but monitor for any harrow changes post-scratch time. The track maintenance team has kept it consistent, with average winning Beyer speed figures around 85 for similar stakes.
Analysis of Each Horse, Jockey, and Trainer
The field consists of five three-year-old fillies, all carrying 121 lbs. This is a compact group with varying experience levels—most are coming off maiden or allowance wins, making class rise a key factor. Speed figures (from last race) provide a baseline for form, with higher numbers indicating stronger performances. I’ll analyze each entrant by post position, including recent finishes (last three races where available), strengths/weaknesses, jockey stats (win rate at Sunland), and trainer notes (career stakes success).
equibase.com +3
Not a Lady (Post Position 1)
Horse Analysis: 3YO filly by Into Mischief out of Justa Lady. Lightly raced with a solid pedigree for speed; last race speed figure of 76 suggests room for improvement but may need to stretch out effectively. Recent finishes: 1st in maiden special weight (6F, fast track, wire-to-wire), 2nd in allowance (5 1/2F), 3rd debut (5F). Strengths: Rail post aids early speed; tactical versatility. Weaknesses: Untested at 6 1/2F; may tire if pressed.
Jockey: Keith J. Asmussen (son of trainer Steve; 18% win rate at Sunland, excels in sprints with 22% in-the-money). Strong hands for young horses; good at rating speed.
Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen (Hall of Famer; 25% stakes win rate career; multiple Eclipse Awards). Master at developing juveniles; 28% win rate with 3YOs in dirt sprints. Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds (deep pockets, high expectations).
In the Aggregate (Post Position 2)
Horse Analysis: 3YO filly by Raging Bull (FR) out of Alleging. Impressive last-out speed figure of 94 in allowance win; shows closing kick. Recent finishes: 1st allowance (6F, off-pace rally), 1st maiden (5 1/2F), 4th debut (6F). Strengths: Versatile stalker; handles fast tracks well. Weaknesses: May need pace to close into; small field limits setup.
Jockey: Luis Negron (20% win rate at Sunland; aggressive style, 25% with closers). Reliable in stakes; good at timing runs.
Trainer: Dick Cappellucci (Solid local; 15% win rate overall; strong with NM-breds but less in open stakes). Owner: Judge Lanier Racing (focused on value plays).
Run Your Mouth (Post Position 3)
Horse Analysis: 3YO filly by Sharp Azteca out of Roo Dew. Speed figure 88 in last; front-runner type. Recent finishes: 2nd allowance (6F, led but caught), 1st maiden (5F), 5th debut (5 1/2F). Strengths: Quick gate speed; could wire if uncontested. Weaknesses: Fades late; unproven beyond 6F.
Jockey: Guillermo Rodriguez (16% win rate at Sunland; excels on speed horses, 21% wire-to-wire). Patient but aggressive when needed.
Trainer: Isaiah Ortiz (Emerging; 12% win rate; specializes in sprinters). Owner: Isaiah Ortiz (trainer-owned, personal touch).
Coffee Connection (Post Position 4)
Horse Analysis: 3YO filly by Nyquist out of Hot Coffee. Speed figure 79; consistent but not flashy. Recent finishes: 3rd allowance (6F), 1st maiden (6F), 2nd debut (5 1/2F). Strengths: Stamina for distance; off-pace style. Weaknesses: Lacks top-end speed; may need trip luck.
Jockey: Olaf Hernandez (19% win rate at Sunland; strong finisher, 23% in stakes). Good at conserving energy.
Trainer: Todd W. Fincher (Top NM trainer; 22% win rate; 18% in stakes). Owner: Multi-partner syndicate (experienced group).
Ready to Dial (Post Position 5)
Horse Analysis: 3YO filly by Dialed In out of Lake Turkana. Highest last speed figure (106) in dominant allowance win. Recent finishes: 1st allowance (6 1/2F, romped by 5 lengths), 1st maiden (6F), 3rd debut (5F). Strengths: Proven at distance; explosive turn of foot. Weaknesses: Outside post may force wide trip; lightly raced.
Jockey: Luis A. Valenzuela (21% win rate at Sunland; tactical rider, 25% with favorites). Excellent at positioning.
Trainer: Justin R. Evans (High-volume; 20% win rate; strong in NM stakes). Owner: Amestoy/Beasley syndicate (aggressive buyers).
Betting Odds
Morning line odds (as of January 17, 2026; subject to change based on wagering):
Not a Lady: 8/5
In the Aggregate: 7/2
Run Your Mouth: 6/1
Coffee Connection: 4/1
Ready to Dial: 5/2
