Race 4: Temperence Hill Stakes (Listed Stakes)
Distance: 1 1/2 miles (Dirt)
Purse: $200,000 Guaranteed
For: Four-year-olds and upward (Open)
Scheduled Post Time: 1:11 PM CT (First post for the 13-race Arkansas Derby Day card is 12:30 PM CT; this is an early-card marathon stakes feature)
Venue Location: Oaklawn Park is located at 2705 Central Avenue in Hot Springs, Arkansas (71901). It is Arkansas’s premier Thoroughbred racetrack, known for its fast, fair main dirt surface that often favors tactical speed and strong finishers in two-turn routes during the winter/spring meet.
Expected Weather Conditions: Daytime high around 68°F (20°C), low near 48°F (9°C) overnight. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds and no chance of precipitation in the forecast.
Track Conditions: Fast dirt (no rain in the extended forecast and recent Oaklawn cards have run consistently fast; the surface should favor stalkers and closers in this marathon).
Full Field (6 horses – official entries locked):
This is a compact but high-quality Listed marathon for older horses on Arkansas Derby Day. Morning line
odds show a two-horse battle at the top between the heavily favored Parchment Party (Mott/Saez) and Jokestar (Attard), with solid value underneath from Forged Steel and the longshots.
PP 1 – Forged Steel (KY, 4yo Colt, Vekoma – Scorecard, by Tale of the Cat)
Trainer: Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. (hot South Florida barn now shipping north; excellent with improving older routers)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (elite closer; one of the best in the country)
Weight: 117 lbs
ML Odds: 9/2
Analysis: Joseph/Ortiz Jr. combo is always dangerous, especially with a lightly weighted tactical type. Recent form includes sharp allowance scores (e.g., strong AOC effort at Tampa). Rail draw is ideal for a patient trip on fast dirt—live win contender who could sit mid-pack and rally strongly.
PP 2 – Happy Strike (KY, 5yo Gelding, Runhappy – Hone In, by Smart Strike)
Trainer: F. Dewaine Loy (smaller barn but capable of price horses at Oaklawn)
Jockey: Amir Mendoza (local rider who fits forward styles)
Weight: 117 lbs
ML Odds: 20/1
Analysis: Consistent placer with early speed. Loy knows the track; expect him to press or lead early. Longshot with upset potential if the pace melts in the stretch, but will need a career-best to beat the top pair.
PP 3 – Tracking Error (KY, 4yo Colt, Good Magic – Guidonia, by Scat Daddy)
Trainer: Greg Compton (solid conditioner with stakes placings at Oaklawn)
Jockey: Abel Cedillo (experienced rider who knows the surface)
Weight: 117 lbs
ML Odds: 12/1
Analysis: Good Magic pedigree suits the distance. Compton has him in good form off recent AOC placings. Tactical versatility from post 3; could stalk and finish well at a square price—solid exotic play.
PP 4 – Compton (ON, 4yo Gelding, Silent Name (JPN) – Erin Commodity, by Hansen)
Trainer: Jerry Dixon, Jr. (consistent with Canadian-bred routers)
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano (veteran who excels in routes)
Weight: 117 lbs
ML Odds: 20/1
Analysis: Local specialist with seasoning. Dixon/Bejarano will look for a mid-pack trip. Respect at a price as a live underneath horse who could improve on fast going.
PP 5 – Parchment Party (KY, 4yo Horse, Constitution – Life Well Lived, by Tiznow)
Trainer: William I. Mott (Hall of Famer; elite with older stakes horses)
Jockey: Luis Saez (high-percentage Oaklawn rider)
Weight: 117 lbs (blinkers on today)
ML Odds: 1/1 (heavy favorite)
Analysis: The class leader and standout. Mott/Saez is a powerhouse combo here; Constitution stamina and recent sharp efforts (including allowance wins) make him the one to beat. Expect a stalking trip and strong finish—deserved favorite.
PP 6 – Jokestar (ON, 4yo Gelding, Practical Joke – Starmaline, by Star Guitar)
Trainer: Kevin Attard (top-tier Canadian trainer shipping in; strong with turf-to-dirt types)
Jockey: Pietro Moran (rising rider who fits this horse’s style)
Weight: 124 lbs (top weight)
ML Odds: 8/5
Analysis: Attard has him peaking with proven stakes form. Practical Joke speed suits the route; outside post fine for a closer. Major win threat who could challenge Parchment Party throughout—key exotic horse.
Overall Preview & Handicapping Thoughts:
A small-field marathon stakes with heavy Mott and Attard influence. The pace should be honest with several forward runners (Happy Strike, Tracking Error), setting it up perfectly for stalkers and closers like Parchment Party, Forged Steel, and Jokestar. Oaklawn’s fast 1 1/2-mile dirt favors horses who can rate kindly and finish strongly. Parchment Party towers on class and connections, but Jokestar (top weight but sharp) and Forged Steel (Joseph/Ortiz) make this a betting race with excellent exotic value.
