Horse Race Preview: Race 4 – Grade III Tom Fool Stakes at Aqueduct

Aqueduct Racetrack – Ozone Park, Queens, New York
$175,000 – 6 furlongs – Dirt – For 4-year-olds and upward
Scheduled Post Time: 2:13 PM ET

Aqueduct Racetrack is located at 110-00 Rockaway Blvd in Ozone Park, Queens, New York. This is the 51st running of the Tom Fool Stakes (named after the legendary Hall of Famer), a traditional mid-winter sprint test and key prep for the Grade II Carter Stakes on April 5. The race headlines an early slot on Gotham Day, a loaded 10-race card that also features the Busher and Gotham Stakes.

Expected Weather Conditions
Cold but dry winter afternoon with highs near 47°F (8°C) by post time and lows around 30°F overnight. Skies partly to mostly cloudy with winds light (5–10 mph from the northwest). Precipitation chance near 0–10% (no rain or snow expected). Track temperatures in the low-to-mid 40s°F. The main dirt track is currently listed as fast and should remain that way — no overnight precipitation and recent cards have been played on a sealed/fast surface when cold and dry. Monitor NYRA updates for any wind-chill effects on riders.

Track Conditions: Main dirt track – expected fast. Aqueduct’s winter dirt has been speed-favoring in sprints this meet, especially inside posts when the rail is good. Six-furlong races here often see early pace hold up or stalkers pounce late off moderate fractions.

Full Field with Post Positions, Morning-Line Odds, Jockeys, Trainers, Weights:

Detailed Analysis of Each Horse, Jockey, and Trainer:

PP 1 – Breslau (Violence – Curlin N Twirlin, 7YO Gelding, 10/1, 119 lbs, J: Ricardo Santana, Jr., T: Michael Miceli)
A 10-time winner and veteran sprinter for the Miceli barn. He’s a confirmed front-runner who loves the inner rail and has posted solid early fractions at Aqueduct. Recent efforts include competitive optional-claiming placings, but this is a significant class jump into graded company. Santana, Jr. (a meet leader) knows how to ration speed from the fence. Miceli hits at a solid rate with his claimers-turned-stakes runners, but Breslau will likely be pressured early and may weaken late. Best used underneath in exactas/trifectas at a square price.

PP 2 – One Nine Hundred (Dialed In – Hedonism, 4YO Colt, 4/5, 119 lbs, J: Jose Lezcano, T: Thomas Morley)
The clear morning-line favorite and most logical winner. He earned a career-best 104 Beyer in a dominant 4½-length optional-claiming victory over this exact course and distance on Jan. 9 (1:09.84 with sharp early splits). He’s been in excellent form all winter for Morley, who calls him “a very, very fast horse who has matured physically.” Lezcano retains the mount and should have him stalking or pressing comfortably from post 2. The 4YO has tactical versatility and the pedigree to handle the cold and the fast track. Morley is having a strong winter at NYRA. He’s very tough to beat if he repeats his last effort.

PP 3 – Bold Journey (Hard Spun – Polly Freeze, 7YO Gelding, 9/2, 119 lbs, J: Eric Cancel, T: William I. Mott)
Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott’s veteran with graded stakes experience (G3 winner). He was fifth in last year’s Tom Fool but has been consistent in allowance/optional company this winter. Cancel knows him well and will look to sit a stalking trip just off the early pace. Mott is always dangerous in these mid-winter sprints at Aqueduct. At 9/2 he offers some value if the favorite over-performs early or the pace melts. Solid exotic play with proven class.

PP 4 – Acoustic Ave (Maclean’s Music, 6YO Gelding, 3/1, 119 lbs, J: Manuel Franco, T: Linda Rice)
New York-bred specialist for Linda Rice (perennial leading trainer at the meet). He just missed by 1¾ lengths in the state-bred Say Florida Sandy (7f) last Saturday on short rest, showing he’s sharp. Grade 3-placed (runner-up in the Elite Power last December) with an 11-4-5-1 record this year. Franco is excellent at rationing speed on the Aqueduct dirt. Rice loves cutting this one back to six furlongs, and the cutback should suit him perfectly. Live chance to upset the favorite at 3/1; a must-use in all tickets.

PP 5 – Full Moon Madness (Into Mischief, 6YO Gelding, 4/1, 123 lbs, J: Reylu Gutierrez, T: Michelle Nevin)
The defending champion (won last year’s Tom Fool by 1¼ lengths with a prominent trip). He has four of five career wins at Aqueduct and loves the surface. Recent form is mixed — a solid neck second at Delaware in June but only a fourth (beaten 2¼ lengths) in a 6½f handicap at Laurel in January after breaking inward. Gutierrez knows him well and will likely send him forward from the outside. Nevin’s barn is in good form, but the 123-pound high weight and slightly regressive recent efforts make him vulnerable. Still, he’s a dangerous closer if the pace is hot.

Overall Outlook and Betting Angles:
This is a high-quality, compact Grade III sprint with a logical standout in One Nine Hundred (#2), who brings the highest recent figure and ideal post. The pace should be honest with Breslau (#1) and possibly Full Moon Madness (#5) up front, setting it up perfectly for the favorite or stalkers like Acoustic Ave (#4) and Bold Journey (#3). The Aqueduct winter dirt favors inside-to-mid posts and horses with proven speed figures over the surface.