Race: Niagara Stakes (NY-bred 3-year-old fillies)
Track/surface/distance: Finger Lakes, dirt, 6 furlongs
Purse/class: $50,000, stakes
Date/time: Monday, September 22, 2025, Race 3, post 1:58 PM ET (10:58 AM PT)
Field size: 5
Venue, timing, and weather
Venue location: Farmington, New York (Finger Lakes Racetrack)
Post-Time: 1:58 PM ET
Expected weather/track: Forecasts indicate rain on the card; anticipate a potential wet surface (sloppy/sealed) if precipitation persists. Monitor updates on race day.
1. Mischief Lady (post 1) — ML 3-1
Profile: Honest Mischief filly for a sharp NY-bred program; tactical speed from the rail. Class fits at this level.
Form insights: Recent line shows mixed but competitive stakes/allowance form; capable of bouncing forward second off freshening. Form string: 62161x14x (last 8).
Connections: Dylan Davis pilots for Edward R. Barker; solid big-race jockey upgrade for this circuit.
Setups/track note: Inside draw helpful if rail is kind; on wet dirt, saving ground early is an edge.
Recent finishes: Most recent sequence: 1-4-x off the layoff cycle; overall 7: 3-1-0 record signals a win-leaning profile at this trip.
2. Idyll Gossip (post 2) — ML 4-1
Profile: Central Banker filly trending up; balanced running style fits a compact field.
Form insights: Comes in off a win; consistent in-the-frame type with 9: 3-1-1 overall. Recent string: 1361x6x251, showing multiple wins sprinkled among competitive efforts.
Connections: Local synergy with Christopher Elliott and trainer Paul Barrow—reliable handling at Finger Lakes.
Setups/track note: Draw puts her in the pocket behind speed; wet track shouldn’t hinder her stalk-and-pounce trip.
Recent finishes: Last 3: 2-5-1, pointing to fitness and upward trajectory.
3. She’s Grand (post 3) — ML 5-2
Profile: Instagrand filly with sharp current form; three straight wins signal peak condition.
Form insights: Streaking: 0x111 (last four), with a high internal rating and strong strike rate (4: 3-0-0). Projects forward speed with finish.
Connections: Sofia Vives riding for Michael Ferraro; both in rhythm locally and effective with frontrunning types.
Setups/track note: If the surface turns sloppy, forward types often get first run—major tactical advantage.
Recent finishes: Last 3: 1-1-1; the field’s most obvious “now” horse.
4. Signifying Nothing (post 4) — ML 6-1
Profile: Honest, workmanlike Central Banker filly; checks boxes for consistency and versatility.
Form insights: String: 6334271213 across last ten—remarkably steady with 2-2-3 from 10 starts and a 70% in-the-money clip this prep.
Connections: Andre Worrie up for Ralph D’Alessandro; they know how to nurse a trip from mid-gate at FL.
Setups/track note: Can sit just off the pace and grind. On wet, her stamina profile plays if leaders get pressured.
Recent finishes: Last 3: 2-1-3; fits exotic builds at a square price.
5. Zi End (post 5) — ML 2-1
Profile: Local standout, 5 wins from 7 starts, returns to age-restricted company after facing older in the Arctic Queen. Morning-line favorite.
Form insights: Powerful record: 1121114 with a 71% win rate; homebred by Weekend Hideaway for trainer Debra Breed. Speed and resilience are proven locally.
Connections: Joel Cruz knows her well and times her moves; trainer-owner synergy suggests confidence at placement.
Setups/track note: Outside draw lets her dictate—press or sit. Wet track could enhance her pace-with-power style given proven local comfort.
Recent finishes: Last 3: 1-1-4, the “4” coming when overmatched vs. elders; big class relief today.
Pace and race shape
Primary speed: She’s Grand (3), Zi End (5).
Stalkers: Mischief Lady (1), Idyll Gossip (2).
Sit-and-pounce/grinders: Signifying Nothing (4).
If rain softens the track, forward placements gain leverage. Expect She’s Grand and Zi End to control early fractions; Mischief Lady and Idyll Gossip track, with Signifying Nothing looking to pick up pieces late.
Betting strategy and suggested wagers
Top pick: Zi End (5) — class drop back to 3yo-only and dominant local profile.
Main danger: She’s Grand (3) — current form and tactical speed, especially potent if wet.
Value key: Signifying Nothing (4) — consistency and late grind at a price.
Exotics anchor: Idyll Gossip (2) — reliable underneath.
Wildcard: Mischief Lady (1) — rail trip upside if track favors inside.
Win/place
Win — 5 Zi End
Saver win — 3 She’s Grand
Value place — 4 Signifying Nothing
Exacta
Exacta A: 5 over 3,4,2
Exacta B (saver): 3 over 5,4
Trifecta
Tri 1: 5 / 3,4 / 3,4,2,1
Tri 2 (value key): 3 / 5 / 4,2
Superfecta (small units)
Super: 5,3 / 5,3 / 4,2 / 4,2,1
Ticket construction should scale to bankroll and live tote clues; upgrade speed types if rain persists and the surface is sealed.
Quick form snapshot
Zi End (5): 7: 5-1-0, form 1121114 — ML 2-1
She’s Grand (3): 4: 3-0-0, form 0x111 — ML 5-2
Mischief Lady (1): 7: 3-1-0, form 62161x14x — ML 3-1
Idyll Gossip (2): 9: 3-1-1, form 1361x6x251 — ML 4-1
Signifying Nothing (4): 10: 2-2-3, form 6334271213 — ML 6-1
