Venue and Race Overview
Aqueduct Racetrack is located at 110-00 Rockaway Blvd, South Ozone Park, Queens, New York City, NY 11420. The Jerome Stakes, a $150,000 ungraded stakes race for 3-year-olds, is scheduled for Saturday, January 3, 2026, with a post time of 1:10 PM ET. This one-mile dirt race serves as the first Kentucky Derby prep of 2026, awarding Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying points on a 10-5-3-2-1 scale to the top five finishers. With only five horses entered, every entrant is guaranteed at least one point. The race is run over a one-turn configuration on Aqueduct’s main dirt track, which often favors horses with tactical speed and can play like an extended sprint.
Expected Weather and Track Conditions
Based on forecasts for Queens, NY, on January 3, 2026, expect partly cloudy skies with a high of 43°F and a low of 36°F. There’s a 25% chance of precipitation, potentially in the form of light flurries or rain, with winds around 8 mph from the northwest. These conditions suggest a cool, brisk day that could lead to a “good” track surface if there’s any moisture, but the dirt is expected to be fast overall, as Aqueduct’s winter track typically drains well and is maintained for firm footing unless significant weather intervenes.
Field Analysis
The compact field of five features a mix of graded stakes experience, undefeated track specialists, and promising up-and-comers. Balboa brings the strongest class from his Remsen (G2) placing, while My World and Mailata showcase speed and recent dominance. Enforced Agenda and Freedom’s Echo are stepping up but show potential. Below is a detailed breakdown of each horse, including starting position (post), jockey, trainer, morning line odds (estimated based on previews, as official lines may vary), recent finishes, and analysis. Odds are drawn from expert estimates: Balboa (2-1), My World (5/2), Mailata (3-1), with Enforced Agenda and Freedom’s Echo likely in the 4-1 to 6-1 range.
| Post | Horse Name | Jockey | Trainer | Morning Line Odds | Weight | Recent Finishes | Analysis |
| 1 | Enforced Agenda | Flavien Prat | George Weaver | 4-1 | 123 lbs | 11/23/25: 1st (Aqueduct, 1 mile MSW, won by 1 length, speed rating 81); Debut only start. | This gray/roan colt by Liam’s Map made a strong impression in his debut, pressing the pace and edging away late despite racing greenly. He has experience over the exact course and distance, which is a plus. With top jockey Prat (known for tactical rides) and room for improvement as a lightly raced sophomore, he could stalk and pounce if the pace heats up. Upside potential makes him a logical contender, but he needs to prove himself against winners. Owner: St. Elias Stable. Earnings: $46,750. |
| 2 | Freedom’s Echo | Dexter Haddock | Guadalupe Preciado | 6-1 | 123 lbs | 12/15/25: 1st (Parx, 1 mile $40K MCL, won by 11 lengths, speed rating 85); 11/10/25: 4th (Parx, 6f MSW). | A bay colt by Independence Hall, he broke his maiden impressively in a one-mile claimer, wiring the field gate-to-gate. He’s a speedster who could contest the early lead, but this is a significant class jump against tougher competition. Trainer Preciado (solid with shippers) and jockey Haddock add value, but he may falter if pressured. Best as an underneath play in exotics. Owner: Nicholas Cammarano Jr. Earnings: $19,610. |
| 3 | My World | Jaime Rodriguez | Brad Cox | 5/2 | 123 lbs | 11/1/25: 1st (Aqueduct, 1 mile Nashua S., won by 3½ lengths, speed rating 89); 10/5/25: 1st (Aqueduct, 1 mile MSW, speed rating 89); 9/12/25: 4th (Churchill, 6f MSW). | This gray/roan son of Essential Quality is 2-for-2 at Aqueduct, including a dominant pace-pressing win in the Nashua Stakes where he drew off late. Trainer Cox (27% win rate in ungraded stakes) has him peaking, and his tactical speed suits the one-turn mile. He’s a track specialist with proven form, but as a potential underlay on odds, value may depend on pace setup. A strong favorite candidate. Owners: Robert V. LaPenta and Madaket Stables. Earnings: $135,250. |
| 4 | Balboa | Manuel Franco | Brittany Russell | 2-1 | 123 lbs | 12/6/25: 3rd (Aqueduct, 1⅛ mile Remsen G2, beaten 3½ lengths, speed rating 94); 11/8/25: 1st (Laurel, 6f James F. Lewis III S., won by 5¼ lengths); 10/18/25: 3rd (Laurel, 6f allowance); 9/20/25: 1st (Laurel, 5½f MSW); 8/15/25: 4th (Saratoga, 6f MSW); 7/10/25: 5th (Belmont, 5f MSW). | The bay colt by Not This Time is the class of the field, with graded stakes experience from his Remsen third where he pressed a quick pace, briefly led, and held for show. His sprint wins suggest the cutback to one mile will suit him better, allowing a stalking trip. Trainer Russell excels with similar types, and jockey Franco knows Aqueduct well. Top choice with high win probability (~28% per models). Owners: SF Racing et al. Earnings: $159,600. |
| 5 | Mailata | Mychel Sanchez | Robert Reid Jr. | 3-1 | 123 lbs | 12/20/25: 1st (Parx, 7f Pennsylvania Nursery S., won by 3½ lengths, speed rating 95); 11/25/25: 1st (Parx, 1 mile MSW, wire-to-wire); 10/30/25: 3rd (Parx, 6f MSW); 9/28/25: 4th (Parx, 5½f MSW). | This bay by Maximus Mischief has the field’s highest speed figures, wiring fields in his last two starts, including a stakes win. He’s a wire-to-wire threat with sharp works indicating peak form, but faces other speed (e.g., Freedom’s Echo) and a class test. Trainer Reid Jr. has him ready, and if the pace melts, he could steal it. Good value play. Owners: Cash is King and LC Racing. Earnings: $114,500. |
