Race Overview
The China Doll Stakes is a Listed stakes race for 3-year-old fillies, contested at 1 mile on the turf with a purse of $100,000. This event serves as a key prep for emerging turf fillies, often highlighting talent bound for longer graded stakes later in the season. The race attracts a compact but competitive field of promising young runners, many with recent strong performances on grass.
- Venue Location: Santa Anita Park, 285 W. Huntington Drive, Arcadia, California 91007, USA. Nestled at the base of the San Gabriel Mountains, this historic track is known for its picturesque setting and fast turf course.
- Starting Date: March 8, 2026
- Scheduled Post Time: 1:33 PM PDT
- Expected Weather Conditions: Clear skies with sunny conditions throughout the afternoon. High temperature around 87°F (30°C), low around 53°F (12°C) overnight. Light winds from the west at 5-10 mph, with low humidity (around 10-15%) and no chance of precipitation. These dry, warm conditions should favor a firm turf surface, promoting speed and tactical positioning.
- Track Conditions: Turf rated as firm. Rail set at 10 feet, which may slightly advantage inside draws by preserving the inner path but could lead to traffic issues in a small field. The Santa Anita turf has been playing fair this meet, with average winning times for 1-mile races around 1:35-1:37 depending on pace.
The field consists of 5 fillies, each carrying 120 lbs (non-winners of a major stakes allowed minor allowances, but none apply here). Morning line odds reflect a wide-open affair, with no clear standout.
Entries Table
| Post Position | Horse Name | Age/Sex | Jockey | Trainer | Owner | Breeder | Morning Line Odds | Recent Finishes (Last 3 Starts) |
| 1 | Yours Sincerely (IRE) | 3/F | Florent Geroux | Philip D’Amato | Benowitz Family Trust, CYBT, Madaket Stables LLC, McLean Racing | Unknown | 8/5 | 1st (MSW, SA, 1m Turf, 1/25/26); 2nd (MSW, DMR, 6.5F Turf, 11/15/25); 4th (Debut, DMR, 5F Dirt, 9/1/25) |
| 2 | Counterbalance (KY) | 3/F | Kazushi Kimura | Michael McCarthy | Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners | Klaravich Stables Inc. | 7/2 | 1st (MSW, SA, 6.5F Turf, 1/31/26); 2nd (MSW, DMR, 5F Turf, 11/28/25); 5th (MSW, DMR, 1m Turf, 9/5/25) |
| 3 | Himika (KY) | 3/F | Juan Hernandez | Bob Baffert | Baoma Corp | Klaravich Stables Inc. | 5/2 | 1st (Alw, SA, 1m Turf, 2/15/26); 1st (MSW, SA, 6F Turf, 1/10/26); 3rd (MSW, DMR, 1m Turf, 11/1/25) |
| 4 | Peanutbutterbombe (KY) | 3/F | Antonio Fresu | Philip D’Amato | LNJ Foxwoods | Little Red Feather Racing & William Strauss | 3/1 | 3rd (G1 Del Mar Oaks, DMR, 1 1/8m Turf, 8/15/25); 1st (Alw, SA, 1m Turf, 6/20/25); 1st (MSW, SA, 6.5F Turf, 5/5/25) |
| 5 | Zimmermann (KY) | 3/F | Hector Berrios | Doug O’Neill | Reddam Racing LLC | Unknown | 12/1 | 2nd (Alw, SA, 1m Turf, 2/20/26); 4th (MSW, SA, 6F Dirt, 1/15/26); 6th (MSW, DMR, 5.5F Turf, 11/20/25) |
*Notes: All horses are equipped with standard gear; no equipment changes noted. Recent finishes are based on available form, focusing on turf performances where applicable. Track conditions in prior races were generally firm, similar to expected today.
Detailed Analysis
Post 1: Yours Sincerely (IRE) – ML 8/5
This Irish-bred filly by Cable Bay has shown rapid improvement since arriving in the U.S. She broke her maiden impressively at Santa Anita in January 2026 over this distance on turf, drawing off by 3 lengths with a strong closing kick (speed figure: 95). Her prior second at Del Mar demonstrated grit in a paceless race, and her debut on dirt was forgivable as she’s clearly turf-oriented. She’s versatile in running style—can stalk or close—and the inside post should allow her to save ground early.
- Jockey: Florent Geroux – A top turf rider with a 25% win rate at Santa Anita this meet. Geroux excels in stakes races, known for patient rides that maximize late speed. He’s 3-for-5 with D’Amato in similar spots.
- Trainer: Philip D’Amato – One of California’s premier turf specialists, boasting a 22% win rate with 3YOs on grass. D’Amato’s horses often peak second off the layoff, and Yours Sincerely’s workouts (bullet 5F in :58.2 on 3/1/26) suggest she’s sharp. He’s won this race twice in the last five years.
Strengths: Tactical speed, proven at the track/distance. Weaknesses: Short odds may not offer value if the pace melts down. Outlook: Top contender; likely to be prominent throughout.
Post 2: Counterbalance (KY) – ML 7/2
Sired by Caravaggio out of a Kitten’s Joy mare, this filly has strong turf pedigree and broke through with a maiden win at Santa Anita in late January 2026, rallying wide for a 2-length score (speed figure: 92). Her near-miss second at Del Mar in November showed she handles shorter sprints, but she faded late in a 1-mile try earlier, suggesting she needs a patient ride. Recent form indicates she’s maturing, and the firm turf suits her closing style.
- Jockey: Kazushi Kimura – Rising star with a 20% win rate on turf routes. Kimura is aggressive from mid-pack and has a good rapport with McCarthy trainees, winning 28% together.
- Trainer: Michael McCarthy – Solid with young fillies (18% win rate), often improving them second time on turf. Counterbalance’s recent drills (6F in 1:12 flat on 2/28/26) point to fitness. McCarthy targets stakes like this for Eclipse ownership.
Strengths: Late kick, loves Santa Anita turf. Weaknesses: May need pace help; post 2 could box her in early. Outlook: Live at the price; could upset if the leaders tire.
Post 3: Himika (KY) – ML 5/2
A daughter of Curlin, Himika has been flawless in her last two starts, wiring allowance fields at Santa Anita in February and January 2026 with front-running tactics (speed figures: 98 and 96). Her third in a tough Del Mar maiden last fall was against stronger, and she’s since added Lasix, boosting her speed. Expect her to gun for the lead from this middle post, setting a controlled pace.
- Jockey: Juan Hernandez – Meet-leading rider with a 28% win rate overall and 32% on turf. “JJ” is masterful on speed horses, timing fractions perfectly. He’s 4-for-6 with Baffert in stakes this year.
- Trainer: Bob Baffert – Hall of Famer with endless success in California stakes (25% win rate with 3YO fillies). Baffert’s horses are always ready, and Himika’s sharp 4F bullet (:47.1 on 3/4/26) screams readiness. He’s won the China Doll three times.
Strengths: Speed bias on firm turf; unbeaten streak. Weaknesses: Unproven in stakes; could fold if pressured early. Outlook: Pace setter and likely favorite; hard to pass if loose on the lead.
Post 4: Peanutbutterbombe (KY) – ML 3/1
This Collected filly has class, finishing a close third in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks last August (speed figure: 102), beaten only by top older rivals. She dominated an allowance at Santa Anita in June 2025 and her maiden prior, showing both speed and stamina. After a layoff, she’s back with targeted works, signaling a big effort.
- Jockey: Antonio Fresu – Italian import with a 22% win rate on turf; excels in route races. Fresu pairs well with D’Amato (30% together), often rating horses perfectly.
- Trainer: Philip D’Amato – See above; he’s saddling two here, but Peanutbutterbombe is his A-game runner. Her 5F work in :59.4 (3/2/26) was best of 50 that day. D’Amato loves stretching out layoff horses in stakes.
Strengths: Graded experience, versatile. Weaknesses: Long layoff; outer post may force wide trip. Outlook: Class of the field; value play if overlooked.
Post 5: Zimmermann (KY) – ML 12/1
A longer shot by Poet’s Voice, Zimmermann ran a solid second in a Santa Anita allowance last month, closing well despite traffic (speed figure: 88). Her prior efforts were mixed, including a flat fourth on dirt, but she’s shown turf affinity. This is a class test, but she could hit the board at big odds.
- Jockey: Hector Berrios – Veteran with 15% win rate; strong on closers. Berrios and O’Neill click at 20% in routes.
- Trainer: Doug O’Neill – Volume trainer (18% win rate); good with Reddam-owned horses. Zimmermann’s steady works (5F in 1:00.2 on 3/3/26) suggest upside.
Strengths: Upset potential in exotics. Weaknesses: Lacks class; outer draw hurts. Outlook: Longshot for underneath in tris/supers.
