Horse Race Preview: Race 13 – Grade II mac Dairmida Stakes at Gulfstream Park

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Gulfstream Park, Hallandale Beach, Florida –

Race 13: Grade II Mac Diarmida Stakes presented by FanDuel TV

Venue Location: Gulfstream Park, 901 S Federal Hwy, Hallandale Beach, FL 33009 (South Florida’s premier thoroughbred track, home to the Championship Meet and its championship turf course).
Race Date: February 28, 2026
Scheduled Post Time: 5:36 PM ET (Race 13 on a 14-race Fountain of Youth Day spectacular; first post 11:30 AM ET).
Distance/Surface: 1 3/8 miles (11 furlongs) on the turf course (rail at approximately 20-30 feet; firm expected).
Purse: $225,000 (guaranteed; for 4-year-olds and upward). Weights: 125 lbs with allowances (non-winners of a graded stakes on turf since Feb. 28, 2025 -2 lbs; other conditions apply).

Track Conditions: Turf course firm and fast. Recent Gulfstream turf races have produced quick, true times with no bias—ideal for routers and late closers over the marathon trip.

Expected Weather Conditions: Mild and pleasant late-February South Florida classic. High near 78-80°F, low around 69°F, partly cloudy to mostly sunny, light to moderate southeast winds (8-12 mph), humidity ~65%, and a 15-25% chance of isolated afternoon showers (very low risk of impacting the turf or post time). Perfect conditions for a strong pace and clean trips on firm ground—no weather bias anticipated.

The 30th running of the Grade II Mac Diarmida Stakes (named after the Florida-bred champion) is a prestigious marathon turf test for older horses and a key early-season spot on the championship meet calendar. The full field of 10 features a perfect mix: a sharp recent G3 winner trying for his third straight local win, a millionaire homebred making his 7-year-old debut, and two live contenders from the red-hot Mike Maker barn (who has won five of the last seven renewals). Pace projects honest to fast with Layabout the likely lone front-runner, setting up beautifully for stalkers and deep closers on firm turf. Layabout is the narrow morning-line favorite, but Grand Sonata, Anegada, and Zverev make this a high-quality betting race with multiple win candidates.

Full Field with Post Positions, Analysis, Jockey/Trainer Notes, and Morning Line Odds

PP 1 – Echo Lane (Treasure Beach (GB) – Misbehavin Miss)
Jockey: Edwin Gonzalez
Trainer: Rohan G. Crichton (solid with local long-distance types)
Morning Line Odds: 20/1
Weight: 119 lbs
Analysis: 5YO Florida-bred with multiple stakes placings but yet to win at this level. Recent efforts show consistent late energy over 1 1/4–1 1/2 miles. Tactical but will need the pace to collapse and a career peak to factor. Gonzalez knows the Gulfstream turf—live longshot for superfectas and multi-race wagers at a price.

PP 2 – Without (IRE) (Lope de Vega (IRE) – You Alone (IRE))
Jockey: John R. Velazquez (Hall of Fame turf specialist)
Trainer: H. Graham Motion (master of patient turf development; strong meet)
Morning Line Odds: 8/1
Weight: 119 lbs
Analysis: 4YO Irish-bred with unlimited potential. Most recent: solid 2nd (beaten 1¼ lengths) in a 1 3/8-mile optional claiming/allowance on Jan. 31, 2026 after a 10½-month layoff—pressed the pace and showed promise in his U.S. debut. Lope de Vega stamina suits the trip perfectly. Velazquez upgrade is significant; Motion excels second-off layoffs. Expect a forward, ground-saving trip and major improvement—sneaky contender who could crash the exotics or better.

PP 3 – Layabout (Laoban – Batalla Sindical)
Jockey: David Egan
Trainer: Patrick L. Biancone (sharp with front-running turf routers)
Morning Line Odds: 5/2 (narrow favorite)
Weight: 125 lbs
Analysis: 4YO in career-best form—won two straight (including the 1 1/2-mile William L. McKnight S. (G3) wire-to-wire on Jan. 24, 2026) and five of his last seven since a maiden optional claimer here last spring. Three stakes wins over Gulfstream turf; loves the course and the distance. Biancone has him razor-sharp—lone early speed makes him extremely dangerous to wire the field or sit just off it. The one to beat on current form and local affinity.

PP 4 – Dancin in Da’nile (Pioneerof the Nile – Dance Again)
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Trainer: Gail Cox (proven with improving older geldings)
Morning Line Odds: 10/1
Weight: 121 lbs
Analysis: 7YO veteran with Grade 3-placed form and consistent placings at 1 1/4–1 1/2 miles. Recent efforts show he can close or stalk; has hit the board in restricted stakes company. Alvarado can deliver a patient ride—solid underneath play and a threat if the pace melts.

PP 5 – Grand Sonata (Medaglia d’Oro – A. P. Sonata)
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione (top local turf rider)
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher (multiple Mac Diarmida wins; elite with fresh horses)
Morning Line Odds: 3/1 (co-second choice)
Weight: 125 lbs
Analysis: Whisper Hill Farm homebred millionaire (5-9-2, $2.5M+ earnings) launching his 7-year-old season off a freshening. Most recent: 6th (beaten 3½ lengths) in the 1 1/2-mile Sycamore S. (G2) at Keeneland last October; prior: 2nd by a head in the 2025 Mac Diarmida here, 2nd in the United Nations (G2) and Arlington Million (G1) last summer, and winner of the Kentucky Downs Turf Cup (G2). Loves Gulfstream turf (chasing third win here). Pletcher/Gaffalione combo is money—expect a mid-pack trip and powerful late kick. Major threat to upset at square odds.

PP 6 – Anegada (Midshipman – Love Cove)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (the man to have on live longshots)
Trainer: Michael J. Maker (won five of last seven Mac Diarmidas)
Morning Line Odds: 9/2
Weight: 123 lbs
Analysis: 4YO Three Diamonds Farm homebred in peak form—won two straight stakes and three of last four, capped by a dominant score in the 1 1/2-mile John B. Connally Turf Cup on Jan. 24, 2026 (career-high figure on yielding ground). Maker’s record here is legendary. Ortiz first-time mount is a massive plus—expect him to stalk Layabout and pounce in the lane. The best closer in the field and a win candidate.

PP 7 – Zverev (Oscar Performance – Balance)
Jockey: Flavien Prat (elite closer)
Trainer: Michael J. Maker
Morning Line Odds: 5/1
Weight: 119 lbs
Analysis: 5YO with strong recent form—5th (beaten just two lengths) in the McKnight S. (G3) after a troubled trip. Oscar Performance progeny handle firm turf and the distance well. Maker’s second string but live; Prat upgrade is huge. Will sit mid-pack or farther and unleash a strong rally—excellent value underneath and a major exotics threat.

PP 8 – Padiddle (Empire Maker – Belle Chaussee)
Jockey: Javier Castellano (Hall of Famer in top form)
Trainer: Elizabeth L. Dobles (solid with consistent routers)
Morning Line Odds: 10/1
Weight: 119 lbs
Analysis: 6YO McKnight runner-up with multiple stakes placings. Tactical versatility and Castellano upgrade make him dangerous. Can improve with a clean trip—respectable price for exactas/trifectas.

PP 9 – Tank (Adios Charlie – Vegas)
Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Carlos A. David (good with Florida-breds)
Morning Line Odds: 30/1
Weight: 121 lbs
Analysis: 4YO three-time stakes winner with early zip but needs to step up in graded company. Saez can steal a share with an easy lead if others scratch or tire—deep bomb for supers only.

PP 10 – Junipero Serra (Noble Mission (GB) – Sutil (BRZ))
Jockey: Rajiv Maragh
Trainer: Martin Drexler (knows the marathon turf game)
Morning Line Odds: 30/1
Weight: 119 lbs
Analysis: 6YO with occasional flashes but lower figures than the top choices. Outside post requires a patient ride—longest shot on the board but can fill out superfectas at a huge price.

Summary and Wagering Angles:
This is a classic “lone speed vs. classy closers” marathon on firm turf. Layabout (3) is the deserving narrow favorite with his front-running style and local dominance, but Grand Sonata (5) brings elite class off the freshening and Anegada (6) has the Maker/Irad magic plus recent distance success. Zverev (7) and Without (2) offer the best value at 5/1-8/1. Maker’s pair (6-7) and the top three make for strong exotic coverage.