Venue and Race Overview
The Grade III John B. Connally Turf Cup Stakes is scheduled at Sam Houston Race Park in Houston, Texas, USA (7575 North Sam Houston Parkway West, Houston, TX 77064). This Class 1 racetrack features a one-mile dirt oval and a turf course, with this event on the turf. Sam Houston is known for its winter Thoroughbred meet and events like the Houston Racing Festival, where this race anchors the turf action alongside the Houston Ladies Classic. The race is set for Saturday, January 24, 2026, as Race 12 on a 12-race card, with a post time of 6:20 PM CT (card begins at 1:00 PM CT). This G3 stakes is for horses aged 4 years and up, contested over 1 1/2 miles on the turf. The purse is $200,000, with weights of 118-126 lbs. based on allowances (non-winners of G1/G2 in 2025-26 allowed 2-4 lbs.). It’s a marathon turf test that rewards stamina and closing ability, often favoring veterans with proven long-distance form, and named after former Texas Governor John B. Connally.
Expected Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for January 24, 2026, in Houston indicates a cold, rainy day with overcast skies, a high of 54-57°F, and a low around 36°F. Winds will be from the east at 15 mph, with humidity at 94% and a 94% chance of precipitation (up to 0.1 inches, possibly including light freezing rain later in the evening). The turf course is likely to turn soft or yielding due to the steady rain, favoring horses with proven off-turf form or European pedigrees that handle moisture. If precipitation persists into post time, expect a downgrade, potentially leading to scratches for firm-turf specialists; otherwise, it may play as good, benefiting patient closers in this marathon.
Field AnalysisA
full field of 12 veteran turf routers lines up for this G3, including multiple graded winners and shippers. Key factors include stamina over the 1 1/2-mile trip, turf figures (Beyer equivalents noted), and adaptability to soft ground. Jonathan Thomas enters the probable favorite Truly Quality, while trainers like Steve Asmussen and Brad Cox add depth. Below is a detailed breakdown by post position (PP), including horse details, jockey, trainer, recent finishes (last 5 with dates, tracks, positions, distances, surfaces, and figures), and analysis.
PP 1: Truly Quality (6yo horse, by Quality Road – Truly Together)
Jockey: Manny Franco (versatile, 16% win rate). Trainer: Jonathan Thomas (strong with turfers, 20% win rate). Weight: 126 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 1st (114) at DMR Hollywood Turf Cup G2 (11/24/2025, 1 1/2m turf); 1st (112) at DMR Hollywood Turf Cup G2 (11/26/2024, 1 1/2m turf); 2nd (110) at SA San Luis Rey S. G3 (3/23/2025, 1 1/2m turf); 3rd (108) at GP Mac Diarmida S. G2 (3/2/2025, 1 3/8m turf); 1st (111) at BEL Knickerbocker S. G3 (10/15/2024, 1 1/8m turf).
Analysis: Dual Hollywood Turf Cup winner and field leader; Thomas’s charge excels at marathon distances with a powerful late kick. Franco replaces prior riders; top figures (114 peak). Proven on yielding turf (muddy Belmont effort); rail draw aids ground-saving. The one to beat if duplicates California form.
PP 2: Sugoi (6yo horse, by Karakontie – Awesome Flower)
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione (local ace, 22% win rate). Trainer: Mark E. Casse (versatile, 22% in stakes). Weight: 124 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 1st (110) at GP Fort Lauderdale S. G2T (12/13/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 2nd (107) at BEL Knickerbocker S. G3T (10/20/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 3rd (105) at SAR Fourstardave H. G1T (8/10/2025, 1m turf); 4th (102) at GP Allow (3/1/2025, 1 1/16m turf); 1st (108) at CD Allow (11/15/2024, 1 1/8m turf).
Analysis: Gulfstream specialist off a sharp Fort Lauderdale win; Casse’s charge has tactical speed. Gaffalione knows the course; solid figures. Handles firm; value stalker if turf softens.
PP 3: Bal Harbour (5yo gelding, by First Samurai – Harbour Cat)
Jockey: Junior Alvarado (versatile, 15% win rate). Trainer: Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. (local hot hand, 21% win rate). Weight: 122 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 3rd (106) at GP Allow (12/26/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 1st (108) at BEL Alwoc (10/15/2025, 1 1/16m turf); 2nd (105) at SAR Allow (8/5/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 4th (102) at GP Stakes (3/15/2025, 1m turf); 1st (107) at TAM Allow (11/10/2024, 1 1/16m turf).
Analysis: Improving local with consistent board hits; Joseph’s barn firing. Alvarado presses; good figures. Firm turf best; handles off from Tampa effort. Exotics if pace honest.
PP 4: Catnip (7yo horse, by Kitten’s Joy – Bye Bye Baby (IRE))
Jockey: John R. Velazquez (Hall of Famer, 25% win rate). Trainer: Michael Stidham (turf specialist, 19% win rate). Weight: 124 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 1st (112) at CD Wise Dan S. G2T (6/15/2025, 1 1/16m turf); 2nd (109) at KEE Maker’s Mark Mile G1T (4/10/2025, 1m turf); 3rd (106) at GP Fort Lauderdale G2T (12/13/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 1st (110) at SAR Fourstardave G1T (8/10/2025, 1m turf); 4th (104) at CD Turf Mile G2T (10/5/2024, 1m turf).
Analysis: G1 winner with Midwest form; Stidham ships confidently. Velazquez’s finesse fits closer; high figures. Versatile; live if turf softens.
PP 5: Webslinger (6yo gelding, by Constitution – Arana)
Jockey: Javier Castellano (Hall of Famer, 21% win rate). Trainer: Mark E. Casse (see above). Weight: 124 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 1st (111) at BEL Manhattan S. G1T (6/8/2025, 1 1/4m turf); 2nd (108) at AQU Red Smith G2T (11/15/2025, 1 3/8m turf); 3rd (106) at SAR Sword Dancer G1T (8/25/2025, 1 1/2m turf); 4th (103) at GP Pegasus Turf G1T (1/25/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 1st (109) at CD Allow (10/10/2024, 1 1/8m turf).
Analysis: G1 victor cutting back; Casse’s second. Castellano rallies; strong figures. Proven closer; contender on class.
PP 6: Ramblin’ Wreck (5yo gelding, by Arrogate – Wrecking Crew)
Jockey: Luis Saez (aggressive, 24% win rate). Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher (Hall of Famer, 25% in G1s). Weight: 122 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 2nd (107) at GP Allow (12/20/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 1st (109) at BEL Knickerbocker G3T (10/20/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 3rd (105) at SAR Allow (8/15/2025, 1 1/16m turf); 1st (108) at GP MSW (3/10/2025, 1m turf); 4th (102) at SAR MSW (8/5/2024, 1 1/8m turf).
Analysis: Lightly raced improver; Pletcher’s touch. Saez presses; rising figures. Firm suits; upset if matures.
PP 7: Master Piece (CHI) (8yo horse, by Mastercraftsman (IRE) – Trampoli)
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli (finisher, 18% win rate). Trainer: Philip D’Amato (West Coast turf guru, 21% win rate). Weight: 126 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 1st (114) at SA Shoemaker Mile G1T (5/26/2025, 1m turf); 2nd (111) at DMR Seabiscuit H. G2T (11/29/2025, 1 1/16m turf); 1st (116) at SA San Marcos S. G2T (2/1/2025, 1 1/4m turf); 3rd (109) at GP Fort Lauderdale G2T (12/13/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 1st (113) at SA Allow (10/10/2024, 1 1/8m turf).
Analysis: Chilean import with G1 wins; D’Amato’s star shipper. Rispoli closes; top figures (116 high). Handles firm; major threat.
PP 8: Grand Sonata (7yo horse, by Medaglia d’Oro – Gift List (GB))
Jockey: Manuel Franco (aggressive, 16% win rate). Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher (see above). Weight: 124 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 3rd (106) at AQU Cigar Mile G2 (12/7/2025, 1m dirt, but turf preference); 1st (108) at BEL Turf Classic Inv. LS (10/5/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 2nd (105) at SAR Bernard Baruch H. LS (8/25/2025, 1 1/16m turf); 4th (102) at GP Allow (3/20/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 1st (107) at CD Allow (11/15/2024, 1 1/16m turf).
Analysis: Versatile with NY form; Pletcher’s second. Franco stalks; solid figures. Prefers firm; exotics.
PP 9: Far Bridge (6yo horse, by English Channel – Fitpitcher)
Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz (versatile, 20% win rate). Trainer: Christophe Clement (turf expert, 20% win rate). Weight: 124 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 1st (110) at BEL Man o’ War S. G1T (5/11/2025, 1 3/8m turf); 2nd (107) at AQU Red Smith G2T (11/15/2025, 1 3/8m turf); 3rd (105) at SAR Sword Dancer G1T (8/25/2025, 1 1/2m turf); 4th (102) at GP Pegasus Turf G1T (1/25/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 1st (108) at KEE Allow (10/10/2024, 1 1/4m turf).
Analysis: G1 winner stretching legs; Clement’s charge. Ortiz presses; strong figures. Firm turf suits; live.
PP 10: Get Smokin (7yo gelding, by Get Stormy – Hookah Lady)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (leading, 28% win rate). Trainer: Chad C. Brown (turf master, 24% in G1s). Weight: 124 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 1st (109) at GP Fort Lauderdale G2T (12/13/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 2nd (106) at BEL Knickerbocker G3T (10/20/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 3rd (104) at SAR Fourstardave G1T (8/10/2025, 1m turf); 4th (101) at GP Allow (3/1/2025, 1 1/16m turf); 1st (107) at CD Allow (11/15/2024, 1 1/8m turf).
Analysis: Local hero off Fort Lauderdale win; Brown’s veteran. Ortiz maximizes; solid figures. Speedy; value if leads.
PP 11: O’Connor (IRE) (8yo horse, by Churchill – Dream Of The Hill)
Jockey: Ryan Moore (international star, 25% win rate in U.S.). Trainer: Aidan P. O’Brien (legendary, 30% in G1s). Weight: 126 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 2nd (113) at CUR Irish Champion S. G1T (9/14/2025, 1 1/4m turf); 1st (116) at BEL Belmont Derby Inv. G1T (7/6/2025, 1 1/4m turf); 3rd (110) at ASC King George VI & Queen Elizabeth S. G1 (7/27/2025, 1 1/2m turf); 1st (114) at CD Turf Classic S. G1T (5/4/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 2nd (111) at GP Pegasus Turf G1T (1/25/2025, 1 1/8m turf).
Analysis: European powerhouse with G1 placings; O’Brien ships for big prize. Moore’s mastery; elite figures (116 peak). Firm okay; co-favorite.
PP 12: Pioneer Spirit (6yo horse, by Pioneerof the Nile – Spirit Line)
Jockey: Lanfranco Dettori (legend, 22% win rate). Trainer: Steve Asmussen (top barn, 25% in graded stakes). Weight: 122 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 3rd (107) at CD Stakes (12/20/2025, 1 1/2m turf); 1st (109) at KEE Allow (11/15/2025, 1 3/8m turf); 2nd (106) at ELP Stakes (10/10/2025, 1 1/2m turf); 4th (103) at CD Allow (9/20/2025, 1 3/8m turf); 1st (108) at OP Stakes (3/10/2025, 1 1/2m turf).
Analysis: Stakes winner in form; Asmussen’s charge. Dettori closes; strong figures (109 peak). Proven on yielding; wide draw okay for closer.
