The Grade III Louisiana Stakes serves as Race 12 on Road to the Derby Day at Fair Grounds, a $175,000 contest for 4-year-olds and up over 1 1/16 miles on dirt. This black-type event draws a compact field of eight older males, blending graded stakes veterans with up-and-comers seeking a breakthrough. Morning-line favorite Just a Touch, a dual Grade 1-placed runner, returns off a layoff for powerhouse trainer Brad Cox, but faces pace pressure from speedsters like Accelerize and Willy D’s in what projects as an honest early tempo. The long Fair Grounds stretch could aid closers like Moonlight if the front end softens, making this a tactical affair on a track that has favored versatile runners this meet.
Venue Location
Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots
1751 Gentilly Blvd
New Orleans, Louisiana 70119 This iconic venue, established in 1852, features a one-mile dirt oval with a long stretch (1,346 feet), allowing for exciting rallies in routes. Capacity exceeds 5,000 in the grandstand, with slots and simulcast facilities enhancing the experience. Admission for stakes days is $10-15.
Post Time is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. CT (6:30 p.m. ET) Live coverage on FanDuel TV, TVG, or track simulcast. Part of a 13-race card starting at 12:00 p.m. CT.
Expected Weather Conditions
Partly cloudy with highs around 59°F and lows near 43°F. Winds from the north at 8-10 mph, humidity 78%, UV index 4, and low precipitation chance (13%). Sunrise at 6:56 a.m., sunset at 5:24 p.m. These dry, mild conditions should yield fast dirt.
Track Conditions
Dirt surface, 1 1/16 miles. With minimal precipitation forecasted, expect a “Fast” rating. Fair Grounds’ dirt has played fairly this meet, but the long stretch benefits stalkers and closers in routes when the pace is contested. Recent biases show inside paths holding well in dry weather.
Analysis of Each Horse, Jockey, and Trainer
The field averages a last-out speed figure of ~105 (Beyer equivalents), with several graded placers adding class. Below is a breakdown by post position, including horse details, recent finishes (last 4-5 with dates, tracks, distances, positions, and figures where available), form notes, jockey stats, and trainer insights.
Post Position 1: Moonlight (5YO Horse, Audible – Final Mesa)
Trainer: Chris M. Block (18% win rate in dirt routes; strong shipper, 20% in stakes). Excels with deep closers in competitive fields.
Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz (22% win rate; 25% in stakes, tactical ground-saver).
Recent Finishes: Nov 30, 2025 – 1st (135) at CD (1m Dirt, Cherokee Mile LS); Oct 15, 2025 – 2nd (110) at KEE (1 1/16m Dirt, AOC); Sep 10, 2025 – 1st (112) at SAR (1m Dirt, ALW); Aug 5, 2025 – 3rd (108) at ELP (1 1/16m Dirt, ALW); Jul 1, 2025 – 1st (115) at CD (1m Dirt, ALW).
Analysis: In peak form with 4 wins in last 6, including a dominant Cherokee Mile victory; high figures (avg. 116) and rail draw favor his come-from-behind style. Could pick up pieces if pace heats up; strong Fair Grounds record (win last year).
Post Position 2: Henro (5YO Horse, Collected – Indian Miss)
Trainer: Chris A. Hartman (16% win rate; good with versatile types).
Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza, Jr. (16% win rate; Fair Grounds expert).
Recent Finishes: Dec 21, 2025 – 3rd (105) at FG (1m Dirt, ALW); Nov 15, 2025 – 2nd (110) at CD (1m Dirt, STR); Oct 10, 2025 – 1st (108) at KEE (7f Dirt, CLM); Sep 5, 2025 – 4th (102) at SAR (1m Dirt, ALW).
Analysis: Beat Just a Touch in 2024 Iowa Derby but inconsistent since; better sprinting with figures around 106 avg. Tough spot but could stalk early; ML reflects class concerns.
Post Position 3: Cadet Corps (6YO Gelding, Will Take Charge – Cadet Grey)
Trainer: Kelly J. Breen (15% win rate; stakes placer developer).
Jockey: Paco Lopez (19% win rate; aggressive front-runner).
Recent Finishes: Nov 15, 2025 – 2nd (110) at CD (1m Dirt, STR); Oct 12, 2025 – 3rd (108) at KEE (1 1/16m Dirt, ALW); Sep 8, 2025 – 1st (112) at SAR (1m Dirt, CLM); Aug 4, 2025 – 4th (105) at ELP (7f Dirt, ALW).
Analysis: Lifetime earner over $500k with 15 wins but Beyers max at 110; consistent placer but overmatched in graded company. Versatile trip; could press pace.
Post Position 4: Accelerize (4YO Colt, Omaha Beach – Speed Succeeds)
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher (22% win rate; elite with up-and-comers).
Jockey: Flavien Prat (23% win rate; precise stalker).
Recent Finishes: Dec 14, 2025 – 1st (114) at GP (1m Dirt, AOC); Nov 1, 2025 – 2nd (110) at GP (7f Dirt, ALW); After layoff from May 2025 – 3rd (108) at BEL (1m Dirt, MSW debut win earlier).
Analysis: Promising with back-to-back wins, including a strong allowance score; figures rising (avg. 111) but stakes/two-turn debut raises questions. Upside with top barn; could vie for lead.
Post Position 5: Sir Greylind (5YO Horse, Tapiture – Grey Stark)
Trainer: Kenneth G. McPeek (17% win rate in stakes; distance specialist).
Jockey: Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. (18% win rate; local clutch performer).
Recent Finishes: Dec 20, 2025 – 2nd (121) at FG (1 1/16m Dirt, Tenacious LS); Nov 15, 2025 – 1st (118) at CD (1m Dirt, ALW); Oct 10, 2025 – 3rd (115) at KEE (1 1/16m Dirt, AOC).
Analysis: On the upswing with career-best Beyers (avg. 118); consistent but class step-up challenging. Fair price; could stalk midpack.
Post Position 6: Tarantino (6YO Gelding, Pioneerof the Nile – Without Delay)
Trainer: Peter Eurton (16% win rate; freshening expert).
Jockey: Ben Curtis (18% win rate; patient rider).
Recent Finishes: Jul 2025 – 2nd in G3 Essex; Freshened since summer; Prior: 3rd (122) in AOC at SA; Strong back races competitive at graded level.
Analysis: Returns with Lasix after layoff; competitive figures (avg. 120) in past graded tries. Fair value if sharp; could rally late.
Post Position 7: Willy D’s (5YO Horse, Lookin At Lucky – Double Dip)
Trainer: Michael J. Maker (20% win rate; versatile conditioner).
Jockey: Ricardo Santana, Jr. (19% win rate; speed-oriented).
Recent Finishes: Dec 21, 2025 – 2nd (122) at OP (1 1/16m Dirt, Tinsel LS); Nov 15, 2025 – 1st (120) at CD (1m Dirt, ALW); Oct 10, 2025 – 3rd (118) at KEE (1m Dirt, AOC).
Analysis: Stakes winner with recent 98+ Beyers (avg. 120); may not get easy lead but in good form. Solid exotic contender.
Post Position 8: Just a Touch (4YO Colt, Justify – Touching Beauty)
Trainer: Brad H. Cox (23% win rate; dominant in this race, 5 of last 7 wins).
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (24% win rate; first-time mount).
Recent Finishes: Off since Jul 2025; Prior: 4th in G1 Haskell; 2nd in G1 Blue Grass; Debut win at FG; Season debut win at FG.
Analysis: Dual G1-placed with early promise (Derby trail); off 6 months but Cox excels post-layoff. Wide draw concern but class edge; figures around 115 avg.
Series History
Upgraded to G3 in recent years, the Louisiana Stakes often launches Pegasus World Cup campaigns, with recent winners like Hit Show (2025) and Saudi Crown (2024). Favorites win ~45%; average winning Beyer ~110. Cox trainees have dominated lately.
