Scheduled Post Time for Race 12: 5:42 PM CT (full Louisiana Derby Day card begins at noon CT)
Venue: Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots – 1751 Gentilly Blvd, New Orleans, Louisiana 70119
The Louisiana Derby is the signature event on the final day of the Fair Grounds winter-spring meet and the last major Kentucky Derby points prep in New Orleans (100-50-25-15-10 points to the top five finishers).
- Distance: 1 3/16 miles (longest on the Road to the Kentucky Derby)
- Purse: $1,000,000
- Surface: Main Track Dirt
- Field Size: 9 three-year-old colts (no scratches reported)
- Conditions: For 3-year-olds; all carry 122 lbs (Lasix permitted)
Expected Weather Conditions & Track Conditions
Sunny to mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s°F (around 78–81°F at post time), lows in the low-to-mid 60s°F overnight. Light southwest winds of 5–10 mph, moderate humidity, and zero chance of precipitation. The dirt track has been dry for weeks and will race fast. This setup strongly favors tactical speed and stamina over the extended 1 3/16-mile trip — expect an honest pace with room for stalkers and closers to make their move.
Full Field Analysis (Post Positions, Horses, Jockeys, Trainers, Recent Form)
All carry 122 lbs. Recent form and speed figures drawn from Equibase/BloodHorse and key preps (Lecomte, Risen Star, Gun Runner, Sunland Derby, etc.).
PP 1 – Pavlovian (Pavel – Mandy’s Grace)
- Jockey: Edwin A. Maldonado
- Trainer: Doug F. O’Neill (Reddam Racing specialist)
- Recent Form: Won Sunland Park Derby (Feb. 15) by a nose for 20 Derby points; prior Cal-bred stakes placings; career-best Equibase figure 87.
Analysis: Inside post and stalker style suit a clean trip on fast dirt. O’Neill excels with shippers; live at 6-1 for a Derby spot if he repeats Sunland effort. Solid exotic underneath play.
PP 2 – Autobahn (Nyquist – Take Charge Paula)
- Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza Jr.
- Trainer: Brad H. Cox (hot barn)
- Recent Form: Won 1 1/8-mile maiden at Gulfstream by 5 ¾ lengths; prior placings; figure 80.
Analysis: Bred for distance; Cox has him improving. Tactical speed helps from post 2. Respectable 8-1 chance for a piece; strong value in multis.
PP 3 – Chip Honcho (Connect – Miss My Rose)
- Jockey: Luis Saez
- Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen (5-time Louisiana Derby winner)
- Recent Form: 2nd in Risen Star (G2) with career-best 98 figure; won Gun Runner S.; 39 Derby points; 5: 2-2-0.
Analysis: Asmussen/Saez combo dominates here. Tactical speed and local experience make him the 3-1 morning-line favorite. The one to beat — expect him to press and grind out a top-three finish for 25+ points.
PP 4 – Universe (Global Campaign – Equalityforall)
- Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
- Trainer: Kenneth G. McPeek
- Recent Form: 4th in Risen Star; runner-up in Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and Street Sense (G3); 23 points.
Analysis: McPeek knows this race (2002 winner). Closer style needs pace; 12-1 offers value if he improves on recent FG try.
PP 5 – Golden Tempo (Curlin – Carrumba)
- Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz
- Trainer: Cherie DeVaux
- Recent Form: Won Lecomte S.; 3rd in Risen Star (beaten 6 lengths); 35 points; blinkers added; figure 90.
Analysis: DeVaux has him sharp with strong workouts. Excellent pedigree for the distance. Co-second choice at 7-2 — major threat with improved early position.
PP 6 – Spirit of Royal (Global Campaign – Spirit Lets Hearit)
- Jockey: Francisco Arrieta
- Trainer: Dallas Stewart
- Recent Form: Won maiden at Oaklawn; 9th in Southwest (G3); figure 92.
Analysis: Stewart won this race in 1999. Needs big step forward; 20-1 longshot best for deep exotics only.
PP 7 – Blacksmith (Liam’s Map – Sweet Achiever)
- Jockey: Florent Geroux
- Trainer: Bob Baffert
- Recent Form: Won maiden at Santa Anita by 3 ¾; 2nd in Los Alamitos Futurity (G2); 5 points; figure 100.
Analysis: Baffert/Geroux tandem is dangerous on fast dirt. Presser style; 6-1 live chance to track the pace and hit the board.
PP 8 – Easterly (Uncle Mo – Dakota Wind)
- Jockey: Edgard Zayas
- Trainer: Brad H. Cox (stablemate to Autobahn)
- Recent Form: Won 1 1/16-mile race at Gulfstream by 2 ¾; prior 2nd in debut.
Analysis: Cox has two live runners; pedigree and tactical speed suit the trip. 6-1 offers excellent each-way value.
PP 9 – Emerging Market (Candy Ride – Wild Empress)
- Jockey: Flavien Prat
- Trainer: Chad C. Brown
- Recent Form: Impressive debut winner at Tampa Bay Downs (1 mile 40 yards); figure 79.
Analysis: Brown/Prat combo lethal with maidens stepping up. Stalker with upside; 6-1 with big-room-to-improve profile.
Betting Trends & Strategy Notes
- Favorites Edge: Local prep winners (Chip Honcho, Golden Tempo) have dominated recent editions; Asmussen has 5 wins here.
- Cox/Baffert/Brown Factor: Multiple elite barns represented.
- Extended Distance: 1 3/16 miles rewards stamina — look for horses with route pedigrees and proven two-turn form. Heavy money on the 3-1 and 7-2 top choices.
- Exotics Play: Exacta/trifecta boxes centered on Chip Honcho (#3) and Golden Tempo (#5), with Blacksmith (#7), Easterly (#8), and Emerging Market (#9) underneath for value.
Final Prediction
This wide-open Grade II on perfect fast dirt sets up a classic Louisiana Derby thriller. Chip Honcho (PP 3) is the slight favorite with his local dominance and Asmussen record, but Golden Tempo (PP 5) with blinkers and Emerging Market (PP 9) offer the best upset potential. Expect a stirring stretch battle over the long trip — the winner will punch a big ticket to the Kentucky Derby.
