Venue: Sam Houston Race Park, located in Houston, Texas (a premier Class 1 thoroughbred and quarter horse facility operating since 1994).
Race: Race 11 – Texas Thoroughbred Association Derby Presented by Texas Thoroughbred Association, a $102,000-added stakes (includes $100,000 from the TTA Event Fund plus up to $15,000 from ATBOIA) restricted to TTA Yearling Sale graduates and declared Texas-accredited sale berth entries, for three-year-old colts and geldings.
Distance/Surface: One mile and seventy yards on the main dirt track.
Conditions: 122 lbs.; non-winners of a sweepstakes allowed 3 lbs.; non-winners of a race other than maiden or claiming allowed 5 lbs. Preference to highest lifetime earnings.
Scheduled Post Time: 5:30 PM Central Time (full 12-race card first post 1:00 PM CT).
Expected Weather Conditions: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy and unseasonably warm with a high near 81°F (low around 68°F). South winds 10-15 mph, moderate humidity, and low precipitation chance (near 0-15% during afternoon racing hours). Ideal spring conditions for Texas Champions Day—no adverse impact on the dirt or horses anticipated.
Expected Track Conditions: Fast dirt. The dry, mild forecast with no significant recent rainfall should produce a firm, speed-favoring main track typical for one-turn routes at Sam Houston in March. Full field of eight three-year-old colts and geldings; no scratches reported.
Full Field Analysis (post positions drawn; strong renewal for Texas-accredited and sale graduates).
Analysis incorporates Equibase/HRN entries, recent form indicators (including last-race speed figures), trainer/jockey records in restricted Texas stakes, route pedigree suitability, post-position bias (inside posts often advantaged on speed-favoring dirt), weight allowances, and available speed figures. A competitive Derby edition headlined by a pair of standouts on peak recent numbers.
PP 1 – It’s All Right (TX) – 3yo Gelding, 122 lbs., Jockey: Iram Vargas Diego, Trainer: H. Ray Ashford Jr., ML: 5/2
By Cairo Prince out of a Rudita mare—solid stamina pedigree that stretches to the 1M70Y trip. Recent speed figure of 82 shows steady local form off allowance placings. Ashford (capable with Texas-bred routers) pairs with Vargas Diego for a patient ride. Post 1 is ideal for saving ground early. Logical top contender who could stalk and deliver a strong late kick at workable odds.
PP 2 – Friday Night Fever (KY) – 3yo Gelding, 117 lbs., Jockey: Santos Rivera, Trainer: Ronnie E. Cravens III, ML: 20/1
By Hard Spun out of a Smooth Performer mare—versatile pedigree with tactical speed. Recent speed figure of 95 is respectable. Cravens gets efforts from longshots; Rivera rides aggressively. Post 2 offers clean positioning. Allowance weight helps—deep longshot who could press early or improve second off a layoff; best underneath in superfectas.
PP 3 – Thebabeslayer (LA) – 3yo Colt, 117 lbs., Jockey: Stewart Elliott, Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen, ML: 9/2
By Collected out of a Candy Bay mare—proven route influence with closing kick. Recent speed figure of 91 off solid efforts. Asmussen (national powerhouse with strong Sam Houston stakes record) sends him live; Hall of Famer Elliott excels in stalking trips. Post 3 is excellent for mid-pack positioning. Allowance weight and class make him a live second or third choice—strong exotic play.
PP 4 – Slamin Sammie (TX) – 3yo Gelding, 117 lbs., Jockey: Lane J. Luzzi, Trainer: Jayde J. Gelner, ML: 8/1
By Mr Speaker out of a local Texas mare—tactical speed suited to the distance. Recent speed figure of 102 signals sharp form. Gelner (consistent in restricted stakes) pairs with Luzzi for mid-pack rallies. Post 4 is neutral-to-good. Allowance helps—solid value play who could press the pace or rally; live exotic contender.
PP 5 – Big Time Charlie (TX) – 3yo Gelding, 122 lbs., Jockey: Floyd Wethey Jr., Trainer: Karen E. Jacks, ML: 6/5
By Cinco Charlie out of a Texas-bred mare—local speed/stamina blend ideal for 1M70Y. Towering recent speed figure of 107 (highest in the field) off a dominant local allowance win. Jacks (strong with Texas-breds) has him razor-sharp; Wethey fits a pressing style perfectly. Post 5 allows clean outside positioning. Heavy favorite and logical top pick—expect him to dictate or sit just off and draw away late. Win machine at short odds.
PP 6 – Cody the Kid (OK) – 3yo Gelding, 117 lbs., Jockey: Luis A. Huaman, Trainer: Wayne F. George, ML: 50/1
By Code West out of an Oklahoma mare—modest pedigree but eligible. Recent speed figure of 79 is the lowest here. George and Huaman pair for longshot efforts. Post 6 is fine but he’ll need a miracle pace setup. Deepest longshot—use only in superfectas for chaos value.
PP 7 – Shop Time (TX) – 3yo Gelding, 122 lbs., Jockey: Deshawn L. Parker, Trainer: Kevin Scholl, ML: 8/1
By Shoplifted out of a Texas mare—improving form with late kick. Recent speed figure of 94 keeps him in the mix. Scholl’s barn can pop at a price; Parker excels in patient mid-pack rides. Post 7 gives room to maneuver. Full weight but solid underneath play—could close strongly if pace is hot; value in tris.
PP 8 – Look No Mo (TX) – 3yo Gelding, 117 lbs., Jockey: Freddy Jose Manrrique, Trainer: Austin Gustafson, ML: 12/1
By Mo Town out of a Texas mare—fresh stakes-quality pedigree. Recent speed figure of 95 off improving efforts. Gustafson (sharp with young stock) sends him live; Manrrique fits stalking trips. Widest post (8) is the only knock, but the distance mitigates traffic. Allowance weight helps—dangerous closer at square odds; major exotic threat.
Summary & Wagering Angles
- Favorites: Big Time Charlie (6/5) stands out on elite recent figures, trainer form, and versatility. It’s All Right (5/2) and Thebabeslayer (9/2) are the primary challengers.
- Key Exotic Plays: Exacta box or wheel with Big Time Charlie / It’s All Right / Thebabeslayer / Look No Mo. Tri/Super include Slamin Sammie and Shop Time underneath for value.
- Pace Scenario: Moderate to contested early tempo likely (Big Time Charlie, possibly Slamin Sammie) on fast dirt—favors stalkers and late runners who can save ground or rally outside.
- Trainer/Jockey Notes: Steven M. Asmussen, Karen E. Jacks, and Jayde J. Gelner dominate barn strength. Elliott, Wethey Jr., and Parker are the riders in form. Cinco Charlie and Mr Speaker pedigree angles stand out for the route.
