The Grade III Southwest Stakes is a pivotal early prep on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, offering 20-10-6-4-2 qualifying points to the top five finishers and a $1,000,000 purse. Rescheduled from January 31 due to Winter Storm Fern, the race retains its original draw and features a deep field of 14 promising 3-year-old colts over 1 1/16 miles on dirt. Expect a contentious pace with speed from horses like Buetane and Litmus Test, potentially setting up for closers such as Strategic Risk. The Baffert duo of Buetane and Litmus Test headline, but local form from the Smarty Jones Stakes adds intrigue.
Venue Location
Oaklawn Park
2705 Central Ave
Hot Springs, AR 71901 This century-old track features a one-mile dirt oval with a reputation for fair racing, though routes can favor tactical speed. Capacity is around 20,000, and the meet draws strong crowds for Derby preps.
Post Time is scheduled for 4:40 PM CT (5:40 PM ET / 2:40 PM PT) This is Race 11 on a 12-race card starting at 11:30 AM CT, highlighting multiple stakes including the Martha Washington and General MacArthur.
Expected Weather Conditions
Mostly sunny with highs around 68°F and lows near 39°F. Light westerly winds at 3-6 mph, humidity about 62%, and no precipitation. Mild, dry weather should promote fast times and energetic racing.
Track Conditions
Expected fast dirt. Oaklawn resumed racing on February 5 after weather-related cancellations, and with no rain in the forecast, the surface should be even and unbiased, favoring form over position.
Betting Odds
| Post | Horse | M/L Odds |
| 1 | Reclamation | 30/1 |
| 2 | D’code | 3/1 |
| 3 | Buetane | 4/1 |
| 4 | Rancho Santa Fe | 15/1 |
| 5 | Litmus Test | 5/2 |
| 6 | Circle Tap | 20/1 |
| 7 | Liberty National | 10/1 |
| 8 | Spirit of Royal | 30/1 |
| 9 | Strategic Risk | 9/2 |
| 10 | Bricklin | 20/1 |
| 11 | Silent Tactic | 15/1 |
| 12 | Baytown Dreamer | 30/1 |
| 13 | Soldier N Diplomat | 12/1 |
| 14 | Sleepingonfreedom | 20/1 |
Litmus Test is the favorite, with D’code seeing sharp money after a dominant debut. Live odds may shift with Baffert buzz and Smarty Jones rematches.
Analysis of Each Horse, Jockey, and Trainer
Field of 14 3-year-old colts on dirt at 1 1/16 miles. Weights are 117-122 lbs, with allowances for stakes winners. Below is a detailed breakdown, including starting position (post), recent finishes (last 3-5 races with date/track/race type/finish/field/distance/surface/speed figure/comments where available), and analysis. All are Kentucky-bred except where noted.
1. Reclamation (KY, 3yo Colt, Caracaro – Showed Up Late)
Jockey: Ramon A. Vazquez (117 lbs) – 19% win rate; Oaklawn regular with strong route record.
Trainer: Christopher Davis – 18% win rate; develops young talent effectively.
Recent Finishes: Jan 3, 2026 OP MSW, 1st/10, 1m dirt, fig 86, “broke maiden impressively by 3 lengths after stalking”; Dec 2025 CD MSW, 4th/12, 7f dirt, fig 78, “even effort in debut.” Career: 2 starts, 1-0-0.
Analysis: Rail draw suits his tactical style; maiden win showed promise with a solid figure. Faces class hike but could stalk and pounce if pace heats up. Longshot value at 30/1 for exotics.
2. D’code (KY, 3yo Colt, Speightstown – Dos Vinos)
Jockey: Luis Saez (117 lbs) – 28% win rate; elite in Derby preps.
Trainer: H. Ray Ashford Jr. – 18% win rate; excels with debut winners.
Recent Finishes: Dec 2025 OP MSW, 1st/8, 6f dirt, fig 99, “dominant debut win by 5 lengths, wired field.” Career: 1 start, 1-0-0.
Analysis: Impressive debut with a top figure; stretching out but pedigree suggests he’ll handle it. Post 2 allows pressing trip. Sharp money favorite contender at 3/1.
3. Buetane (KY, 3yo Colt, Tiz the Law – Taboo)
Jockey: Joel Rosario (117 lbs) – 25% win rate; Hall of Famer in big races.
Trainer: Bob Baffert – 25% win rate; multiple Derby winners.
Recent Finishes: Jan 2026 SA San Vicente G2, 2nd/6, 7f dirt, fig 103, “pressed pace, outfinished late”; Dec 2025 SA MSW, 1st/9, 6f dirt, fig 98, “broke maiden easily.” Career: 3 starts, 1-1-0.
Analysis: Baffert shipper with speed; San Vicente runner-up shows class. Post 3 ideal for front-running; could wire if uncontested. Strong at 4/1.
4. Rancho Santa Fe (KY, 3yo Colt, Tapit – Family Tree)
Jockey: Flavien Prat (122 lbs) – 25% win rate; reigning Eclipse champ.
Trainer: Brad H. Cox – 22% win rate; top in preps.
Recent Finishes: Jan 3, 2026 OP Smarty Jones S., 5th/10, 1 1/16m dirt, fig 88, “disappointed as favorite, no rally”; Dec 2025 FG MSW, 1st/8, 1m dirt, fig 95, “strong maiden win.” Career: 3 starts, 1-0-0.
Analysis: Top weight after Smarty Jones flop; Prat addition boosts. Post 4 suits mid-pack; rebound potential at 15/1 if back to form.
5. Litmus Test (KY, 3yo Colt, Nyquist – Study Hard)
Jockey: Juan J. Hernandez (122 lbs) – 24% win rate; West Coast star.
Recent Finishes: Dec 13, 2025 LRC Los Alamitos Futurity G2, 1st/5, 1 1/16m dirt, fig 102, “won impressively by 2 lengths”; Nov 1, 2025 DMR BC Juvenile G1, 4th/12, 1 1/16m dirt, fig 98, “close throughout, solid effort”; Oct 2025 SA MSW, 1st/8, 6f dirt, fig 95. Career: 4 starts, 2-0-0.
Analysis: Baffert’s other; top figures from graded wins. Post 5 allows stalking; favorite at 5/2 with upside.
6. Circle Tap (KY, 3yo Colt, Twirling Candy – Rattataptap)
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. (117 lbs) – 25% win rate; Oaklawn leader.
Trainer: Dallas Stewart – 18% win rate; graded experience.
Recent Finishes: Dec 27, 2025 OP MSW, 1st/10, 1m dirt, fig 92, “maiden win by neck after rally.” Career: 2 starts, 1-0-0.
Analysis: Stewart entry; post 6 suits off-pace. Needs jump but Santana knows track; 20/1 overlay.
7. Liberty National (KY, 3yo Colt, Maxfield – Virtuoso)
Jockey: Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. (117 lbs) – 20% win rate; tactical.
Trainer: Kenneth G. McPeek – 18% win rate; multiple entries.
Recent Finishes: Dec 2025 FG Gun Runner S., 2nd/7, 1 1/16m dirt, fig 96, “rallied for place”; Nov 2025 CD MSW, 1st/10, 1m dirt, fig 90. Career: 3 starts, 1-1-0.
Analysis: Strong Gun Runner runner-up; post 7 fine for closer. McPeek hot; value at 10/1.
8. Spirit of Royal (KY, 3yo Colt, Global Campaign – Spirit Lets Hearit)
Jockey: Francisco Arrieta (117 lbs) – 20% win rate; allowance specialist.
Trainer: Dallas Stewart – See above.
Recent Finishes: Jan 2, 2026 OP MSW, 1st/9, 1m dirt, fig 94, “broke maiden rallying.” Career: 2 starts, 1-0-0.
Analysis: Stewart’s other; similar to stablemate. Post 8 may widen; 30/1 longshot for minors.
9. Strategic Risk (KY, 3yo Colt, Noble Bird – Strategize)
Jockey: Javier Castellano (122 lbs) – 24% win rate; Hall of Famer.
Trainer: Mark E. Casse – 20% win rate; stakes force.
Recent Finishes: Jan 3, 2026 OP Smarty Jones S., 1st/10, 1 1/16m dirt, fig 98, “won by 4 1/2 after tracking”; Dec 2025 CD AOC, 2nd/8, 1m dirt, fig 92. Career: 5 starts, 3-1-0.
Analysis: Smarty Jones blowout; top weight but post 9 suits closer. Contender at 9/2.
10. Bricklin (KY, 3yo Colt, Nyquist – Majestic Vixen)
Jockey: Jaime A. Torres (122 lbs) – 20% win rate; emerging.
Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset – 18% win rate; solid developer.
Recent Finishes: Jan 3, 2026 OP AOC, 1st/8, 1m dirt, fig 110, “strong allowance win.” Career: 4 starts, 2-1-0.
Analysis: High figure in allowance; post 10 challenging but upside at 20/1.
11. Silent Tactic (KY, 3yo Colt, Tacitus – Magical Sign)
Jockey: Cristian A. Torres (117 lbs) – 22% win rate; aggressive.
Trainer: Mark E. Casse – See above.
Recent Finishes: Jan 3, 2026 OP Smarty Jones S., 2nd/10, 1 1/16m dirt, fig 94, “rallied from 8th”; Dec 2025 CD MSW, 1st/9, 1m dirt, fig 90. Career: 3 starts, 1-1-0.
Analysis: Smarty Jones place; Casse’s other. Post 11 wide but live at 15/1.
12. Baytown Dreamer (KY, 3yo Colt, Mendelssohn – Colerful Bride)
Jockey: Orlando Bocachica (117 lbs) – 18% win rate; patient.
Trainer: Paul McEntee – 15% win rate; value plays.
Recent Finishes: Jan 3, 2026 OP Smarty Jones S., 3rd/10, 1 1/16m dirt, fig 92, “solid close”; Prior 8 starts show consistency. Career: 9 starts, 2-2-2.
Analysis: Experienced; Smarty Jones third. Post 12 tough; 30/1 for board.
13. Soldier N Diplomat (KY, 3yo Colt, Army Mule – Diplomatic Miss)
Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz (122 lbs) – 25% win rate; stakes ace.
Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen – 22% win rate; volume leader.
Recent Finishes: Dec 2025 OP AOC, 1st/8, 1m dirt, fig 98, “impressive win.” Career: 4 starts, 2-1-0.
Analysis: Asmussen shipper; Ortiz boosts. Post 13 wide but talent at 12/1.
14. Sleepingonfreedom (KY, 3yo Colt, Independence Hall – Siesta)
Jockey: Emmanuel Esquivel (117 lbs) – 16% win rate; knows horse.
Trainer: Kenneth G. McPeek – See above.
Recent Finishes: Jan 3, 2026 OP Smarty Jones S., 4th/10, 1 1/16m dirt, fig 88, “distant behind top three”; Won 2 of prior 3. Career: 4 starts, 2-0-0.
Analysis: McPeek’s other; Smarty Jones flop. Post 14 hurdle; 20/1 rebound play.
