Scheduled Post Time (Race 11): 5:23 PM CT (6:23 PM ET)
Venue: Oaklawn Park, 2709 Central Avenue, Hot Springs, Arkansas (main dirt track)
Distance: 1 1/16 miles (8.5 furlongs)
Surface: Dirt
Purse: $1,000,000 (Grade II; for 3-year-olds; Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 50-25-15-10-5 to top five finishers)
Track Conditions (projected): Fast dirt. Oaklawn’s main track has been consistently fast and bias-neutral this meet, with a slight inside/stalker preference in two-turn races.
Expected Weather Conditions: Mild early March conditions with highs near 62–65°F by post time, light south winds 5–10 mph, and a 35–45% chance of isolated afternoon showers (brief and light, no major accumulation expected). Overnight lows in the upper 30s°F. Any passing shower would be absorbed quickly on the well-draining surface, keeping it fast.
Note on Field: Original 10-horse entry; Bravaro (PP1 original) scratched to run in Saturday’s Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream. Current 9-horse field with adjusted post positions below.
Full Field Analysis
PP 1 – Litmus Test (KY-bred by Nyquist out of Study Hard by Malibu Moon)
Jockey: Flavien Prat (elite closer specialist; perfect for tactical types)
Trainer: Bob Baffert (Hall of Famer; 8-time Rebel winner since 2010)
Weight: 122 lbs
ML Odds: 7/2
Recent Finishes: 1st (dominant) in Grade II Los Alamitos Futurity (Dec. 2025); 4th (1¾ lengths behind champion Ted Noffey) in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1); 3rd in Grade I Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity.
Analysis: Fastest speed figures in the field (top Equibase 105). Ships in fresh from California for seasonal debut. Prat should have him in perfect stalking position from the rail. Baffert’s record here is legendary. The horse to beat.
PP 2 – Class President (KY-bred by Uncle Mo out of Top Quality by Quality Road)
Jockey: John R. Velazquez (Hall of Famer; big-race rider)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (Hall of Famer; strong with lightly raced 3YOs)
Weight: 122 lbs
ML Odds: 10/1
Recent Finishes: 2nd in Swale S. (G3, 7f, Jan. 31 at Gulfstream); impressive 3¼-length maiden win going a mile (Dec. 22 at Gulfstream).
Analysis: Lightly raced (only 2 starts) but pedigree screams two turns. Velazquez ships in for the ride. First time stretching to two turns is a question, but he offers excellent value underneath and could improve significantly.
PP 3 – Blackout Time (KY-bred by Not This Time out of Beauty Parlor by Elusive Quality)
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr. (McPeek’s go-to rider; excellent at Oaklawn)
Trainer: Kenny McPeek (master with Derby preps; won 2024 Rebel)
Weight: 122 lbs
ML Odds: 8/5 (morning-line favorite)
Recent Finishes: 2nd (behind champion Ted Noffey) in Grade I Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (2025); dominant 9¾-length maiden win at Ellis Park.
Analysis: Most accomplished juvenile form in the field. Returns off a 4½-month layoff but has been training sharply. McPeek excels with these types at Oaklawn. The class horse, but short odds reflect the risk of the layoff.
PP 4 – Honey’s to Blame (AR-bred by Blame out of Harlee Honey by Harlan’s Holiday)
Jockey: Emmanuel Esquivel (solid local rider)
Trainer: Kenny McPeek (double entry with Blackout Time)
Weight: 122 lbs
ML Odds: 20/1
Recent Finishes: Back-to-back wins including open 1 1/16-mile allowance-optional claimer (Feb. 8 at Oaklawn).
Analysis: Local Arkansas-bred stepping up in class. McPeek knows the track cold, but this is a significant jump. Longshot exotic filler only.
PP 5 – Strategic Risk (FL-bred by Noble Bird out of Strategize by Afleet Alex)
Jockey: Javier Castellano (veteran stakes rider)
Trainer: Mark Casse (hot barn; won two prior Oaklawn Derby preps this meet)
Weight: 122 lbs
ML Odds: 8/1
Recent Finishes: 1st (Smarty Jones S. by 4½ lengths, Jan. 3); 10th (unexplained dud in Southwest S., Feb. 6).
Analysis: Bounce-back candidate after Southwest regression (Casse says he’s better than that). Local stakes winner with tactical speed. Strong exotic play at a square price.
PP 6 – Silent Tactic (KY-bred by Tacitus out of Magical Sign by Gun Runner)
Jockey: Cristian Torres (Oaklawn riding champion; rising star)
Trainer: Mark Casse (back-to-back preps with this barn)
Weight: 122 lbs
ML Odds: 9/2
Recent Finishes: 1st (Southwest S. by 3¼ lengths with powerful rally, Feb. 6); 2nd (Smarty Jones S.).
Analysis: Explosive closer who exploded in the Southwest (103 speed figure). Short 23-day turnaround is the only concern, but Casse/Torres combo is firing. Live every step.
PP 7 – Rancho Santa Fe (KY-bred by Tapit out of Family Tree by Smart Strike)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. (top national rider)
Trainer: Brad H. Cox (elite with routers; strong Oaklawn stats)
Weight: 122 lbs
ML Odds: 12/1
Recent Finishes: 4th (nosed out for 3rd in Southwest S., speed figure 97); improved effort after Smarty Jones.
Analysis: Bred for distance (Tapit). Cox/Ortiz is money. Improving form and gets a perfect stalking trip. Excellent value exotic play.
PP 8 – Time for Music (KY-bred by Not This Time out of Bling On the Music by Too Much Bling)
Jockey: Keith Asmussen (local specialist)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen (Hall of Famer; dominant at Oaklawn)
Weight: 122 lbs
ML Odds: 30/1
Recent Finishes: Poor recent efforts including 10th in season debut (Feb. 8 at Oaklawn).
Analysis: Longshot with declining form. Asmussen barn is always dangerous, but this one needs a miracle.
PP 9 – Soldier N Diplomat (KY-bred by Army Mule out of Diplomatic Miss by Violence)
Jockey: Jose Ortiz (elite rider)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen (double entry)
Weight: 122 lbs
ML Odds: 10/1
Recent Finishes: 2nd (Southwest S., 3¼ lengths behind Silent Tactic); 3rd (Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club S.).
Analysis: Has talent but has faded late in two-turn tries. Asmussen/Ortiz combo gives him every chance. Live underneath but may prefer shorter.
