Race Overview
The American Oaks presented by Cygames is a Grade I turf stakes race for 3-year-old fillies, contested over 1 1/4 miles on the downhill turf course with a $300,000 purse. This prestigious event, which began in 2002 at Hollywood Park and moved to Santa Anita in 2013, is Race 11 on an 11-race card at Santa Anita Park, located at 285 W Huntington Dr, Arcadia, CA 91007. The race is scheduled to start at 4:20 PM PT on Sunday, December 28, 2025, with the first post of the day at 11:00 AM PT.
Santa Anita’s turf course features a downhill start for this distance, which can favor horses with early speed or tactical positioning. Following heavy rains that postponed the original opening day from December 26, track conditions for the turf are expected to be good, with some residual softness possible from the prior weather. Officials have confirmed the race will remain on turf, but if conditions worsen, it could be moved to dirt—though that’s unlikely given the forecast.
Expected Weather Conditions
The forecast for Arcadia, CA, on December 28, 2025, calls for partly cloudy skies with highs around 61°F and lows near 43°F. Winds will be light and variable at 5-10 mph, with humidity around 41% and no significant chance of precipitation. These mild conditions should allow the turf to firm up, but any lingering moisture from earlier rains could result in a yielding surface, potentially benefiting horses with European form or proven soft-ground ability. Attendees should prepare for cool weather with layers.
Field Analysis
Eleven fillies are entered in this wide-open Grade I, with a mix of domestic and international talent. Below is a detailed breakdown of each entrant, including starting position (post position, or PP), recent finishes (form figures or descriptions, most recent on the right), jockey, trainer, key strengths/weaknesses, and prospects. Morning line odds (ML) are provided. Analysis incorporates pedigree, running style, speed figures where noted, and trainer comments. All carry 124 lbs.
A Thousand Miles (KY) (PP 1, ML 30/1)
Jockey: Mike E. Smith (Hall of Famer with 20% win rate; excels in big races).
Trainer: Vann Belvoir (mid-level conditioner with 12% win rate; focuses on consistent performers).
Recent Finishes: Won Zia Park Oaks (most recent, by 8 1/2 lengths); wins in Arizona Oaks and Panthers S.; second in Autumn Miss Stakes (G3).
Analysis: By Thousand Words out of Swiss Army Wife; versatile with tactical speed—can press or stalk. Strengths: Rail draw saves ground; strong closing kick in routes. Weaknesses: Form from Zia Park Oaks questioned for depth; class rise steep. Prospects: Longshot value; could factor underneath if pace sets up, but unlikely winner.
Will Then (KY) (PP 2, ML 7/2)
Jockey: Flavien Prat (25% win rate at Santa Anita; tactical master).
Trainer: Jonathan Thomas (22% in graded stakes; develops turf routers).
Recent Finishes: 5th in Red Carpet Stakes (G3) at Del Mar (most recent, flattened late); third in San Clemente Handicap (G2T); winless in five but won China Doll Stakes at Santa Anita (March).
Analysis: By War of Will out of Remember Then; mid-pack stalker who rallies. Strengths: Proven at Santa Anita (China Doll win); tactical speed suits downhill; Augustin Stables ownership. Weaknesses: No win since March; recent form dip. Prospects: Top contender; strong rally expected in open field—trainer’s trio adds depth.
Cliffs (KY) (PP 3, ML 6/1)
Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz (21% win rate; strong finisher).
Trainer: Cherie DeVaux (18% with shippers; 2024 American Oaks winner).
Recent Finishes: Two wins in five starts (one at Churchill Downs, one at Saratoga); stakes debut.
Analysis: By Omaha Beach out of Perfect View; stalking style with closing ability. Strengths: Shipped early, nice work at Santa Anita; versatile on turf. Weaknesses: Untested in stakes; needs pace help. Prospects: Live shipper; could rally for a piece with clean trip.
Ambaya (KY) (PP 4, ML 8/1)
Jockey: Antonio Fresu (18% win rate; rising star).
Trainer: Jonathan Thomas (as above; Augustin Stables).
Recent Finishes: Fourth against older at Del Mar (mile turf, Nov. 24, most recent); third in Christiana Stakes at Delaware Park (Sept. 27); 1-2-1-1 record in five starts.
Analysis: By Ghostzapper out of Kundray; mid-pack stalker who closes. Strengths: Consistent but light résumé; pedigree for turf routes. Weaknesses: No standout stakes win; class test. Prospects: Value in trainer’s trio; could improve for exotics.
Slick (IRE) (PP 5, ML 20/1)
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli (22% at Santa Anita; aggressive).
Trainer: Philip D’Amato (24% on turf; stakes specialist).
Recent Finishes: Fifth in Autumn Miss Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita (most recent); no placings in three graded tries; two overnight wins at Santa Anita.
Analysis: By Oasis Dream out of Shurooq; mid-pack stalker. Strengths: Local wins; barn’s turf success. Weaknesses: Graded form lacking; rebound needed. Prospects: Longshot; minor share if pace melts.
Take A Breath (GB) (PP 6, ML 15/1)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (26% win rate; big-race expert).
Trainer: Mark Glatt (15% in stakes; solid with imports).
Recent Finishes: Sixth in Autumn Miss Stakes (G3, most recent, bad trip—checked hard); strong handicap wins in Great Britain pre-U.S.
Analysis: By Bated Breath out of Darling Grace; stalking/mid-pack closer. Strengths: Jockey upgrade; excuses last out. Weaknesses: No U.S. win yet; adapts to distance? Prospects: Upset potential; rally if trouble-free.
Resolve (KY) (PP 7, ML 30/1)
Jockey: Diego A. Herrera (16% win rate; tactical).
Trainer: Leonard Powell (15% in stakes; 2023 American Oaks winner).
Recent Finishes: Third behind Will Then in Jimmy Durante Stakes (G3T); often wide trips.
Analysis: By Midnight Lute out of Custody; comes from off pace. Strengths: Trainer notes 1 1/4 miles suits; stamina. Weaknesses: Wide trips common; longshot odds. Prospects: Exotic filler; could close late.
Totally Justified (KY) (PP 8, ML 5/1)
Jockey: Juan J. Hernandez (22% win rate; local leader).
Trainer: Anna M. Meah (emerging; new with this filly post-purchase).
Recent Finishes: Sixth in Valley View Stakes at Keeneland (most recent, two months ago); winless in six this year; standout win in 2024 P.G. Johnson Stakes at Saratoga.
Analysis: By Justify out of Outstanding; near front or mid-pack. Strengths: $775k purchase; blinkers off; versatile. Weaknesses: Break since Keeneland; no 2025 wins. Prospects: Solid mid-odds; could rebound for new connections.
As Catch Can (FL) (PP 9, ML 8/1)
Jockey: Joel Rosario (23% win rate; Hall of Famer).
Trainer: Jonathan Thomas (as above; Augustin Stables).
Recent Finishes: Won Old Dominion Oaks at Colonial Downs (most recent, by 3/4 length, Sept. 6, speed 93); second in Mazarine Stakes (G3), Sweet Life Stakes, Bourbonette Oaks, Autumn Miss Stakes (G3).
Analysis: By Mo Town out of Just a Catch; stalker/closer who saves ground. Strengths: Good closing kick; jockey first time. Weaknesses: No G1 win; overlooked at odds. Prospects: Value contender; strong underneath play.
Atsila (IRE) (PP 10, ML 5/2)
Jockey: Tiago Josue Pereira (13% win rate; aggressive).
Trainer: Richard Baltas (17% with imports; two-time American Oaks winner).
Recent Finishes: Sixth in G1 Sun Chariot (most recent); third in G1 Matron Stakes; won Athasi Stakes (G3) at Curragh (May); two wins in seven European starts; scratched from BC Filly & Mare Turf (vet).
Analysis: By Phoenix of Spain out of Scala Romana; stalker/closer. Strengths: Class from Europe; trainer surprised at favorite status but notes upside. Weaknesses: U.S. debut; wide post. Prospects: Favorite with potential; late rally in tough field.
Ribbons (KY) (PP 11, ML 15/1)
Jockey: Mirco Demuro (19% in U.S. stakes; international).
Trainer: Leonard Powell (15% in stakes; patient).
Recent Finishes: Nose win at mile in allowance optional claimer (most recent); stakes debut.
Analysis: By Liam’s Map out of Calinas Song; front-runner. Strengths: Trainer notes distance question but age group suits. Weaknesses: Outer post; unproven in stakes. Prospects: Mid-odds; could press early but fade.
