Venue and Race Overview
Oaklawn Park is located at 2705 Central Ave, Hot Springs, AR 71901. The Smarty Jones Stakes, a $250,000 stakes race for 3-year-olds, is scheduled for Saturday, January 3, 2026, with a post time of 4:25 PM CT. This 1 1/16-mile dirt race is a key Kentucky Derby prep, awarding Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying points on a 10-5-3-2-1 scale to the top five finishers. Contested on Oaklawn’s main dirt track, the two-turn configuration often favors horses with tactical speed or proven stamina, though closers can rally if the early pace is honest.
Expected Weather and Track Conditions
Forecasts for Hot Springs, AR, on January 3, 2026, indicate sunny and cold conditions with a high of 52°F and a low of 41°F. Winds will be light at around 5 mph, with humidity at 63% and no precipitation expected. These dry, chilly winter conditions should yield a fast dirt track, playing fair without notable biases, though the cold may test horses’ stamina in the stretch.
Field Analysis
This field of nine newly turned 3-year-olds is headlined by Universe, who brings graded stakes experience, and the undefeated Rancho Santa Fe from top connections. Oscar’s Hope ranks high in late pace and offers value, while Boca Beach Club boasts the field’s top speed figure. The race could feature a moderate pace with Baytown Dreamer or Scar Ship pushing early, setting up stalkers like Rancho Santa Fe and closers like Universe. Below is a detailed breakdown, including post position, jockey, trainer, morning line odds (from official sources), weight (standard 122 lbs for colts per conditions), recent finishes (last 3-4 with dates, tracks, distances, positions, and Equibase Speed Figures where available), and analysis. All horses are colts unless noted.
| Post | Horse Name | Jockey | Trainer | Morning Line Odds | Weight | Recent Finishes | Analysis |
| 1 | Universe | Joel Rosario | Kenneth G. McPeek | 3-1 | 122 lbs | 11/29/25: 2nd (Churchill Downs, 1 1/16m Kentucky Jockey Club S. G2, beaten 1¾ lengths, ESF 92); 10/26/25: 2nd (Churchill Downs, 1 1/16m Street Sense S. G3, ESF 92); 10/05/25: 3rd (Belmont at Aqueduct, 1m Champagne S. G1, one turn); 08/30/25: 1st (Saratoga, 7f MSW, won by 4½ lengths). | This Gun Runner colt makes his Oaklawn debut with strong graded form, finishing placed in three straight stakes to end his juvenile year. Trainer McPeek (27% win rate in non-graded stakes at Oaklawn) switches to jockey Rosario (elite closer); class drop from 109 to 93 average rating boosts chances. Proven at the distance with closing style; top contender despite rail post. Owner: Cardinal Hill Racing et al. Earnings: ~$200,000. |
| 2 | Baytown Dreamer | Orlando Bocachica | Paul McEntee | 30-1 | 122 lbs | Recent: Five straight turf starts, best ESF 82; Prior dirt efforts unremarkable. | A Hard Spun colt switching back to dirt after turf campaign; low speed figures (82 max) suggest he’s outclassed. Trainer McEntee targets spots, but jockey Bocachica will need a perfect trip; longshot for exotics underneath. Owner: Not specified. Earnings: ~$50,000. |
| 3 | Boca Beach Club | Luis Saez | James P. DiVito | 4-1 | 122 lbs | 12/13/25: 2nd (Oaklawn Park, 6f Advent S., beaten head, ESF 98); Prior maiden win. | Omaha Beach colt earned the field’s top ESF (98) in a gritty Advent placing at Oaklawn; stretching to two turns for the first time. Trainer DiVito ships in confidently, and jockey Saez (high win rate) adds tactical edge; strong if he handles distance. Owner: Not specified. Earnings: ~$80,000. |
| 4 | Silent Tactic | Jaime A. Torres | Mark E. Casse | 12-1 | 122 lbs | 11/02/25: 2nd (Woodbine, 1 1/16m Grey S. G3, all-weather, narrow defeat, ESF 85); Prior allowance win. | Nyquist colt ships from Woodbine after a close G3 placing on all-weather; best ESF 85. Hall of Famer Casse (multiple entries) and jockey Torres suit stalking style; value if adapting to dirt. Owner: Not specified. Earnings: ~$100,000. |
| 5 | Rancho Santa Fe | Florent Geroux | Brad H. Cox | 5-2 | 122 lbs | 10/19/25: 1st (Keeneland, 1 1/16m AOC, won by ½ length, ESF 88); 08/24/25: 1st (Ellis Park, 1m MSW, won by 1¾ lengths, ESF 86). | Undefeated Justify colt in two starts, both at or beyond a mile; trainer Cox (35% win rate in non-graded stakes at Oaklawn, won this race in 2024) retains jockey Geroux. Proven router with tactical speed; morning-line favorite with high upside (~30% win chance). Owner: Not specified. Earnings: ~$70,000. |
| 6 | Oscar’s Hope | Ricardo Santana, Jr. | Thomas M. Amoss | 8-1 | 122 lbs | 11/22/25: 1st (Delta Downs, 7f Jean Lafitte S., won by 2¾ lengths, ESF 93); 10/18/25: 1st (Churchill Downs, 6f AOC, won); 09/27/25: 2nd (Keeneland, 6f AOC); 08/23/25: 1st (Saratoga, 6f MSW, won by 5¾ lengths); 07/26/25: 2nd (Saratoga, 6f MSW). | Oscar Performance colt is 3-for-5 lifetime, all first or second; ranks first in late pace (107.0). Trainer Amoss (44% win rate recently) and jockey Santana Jr. (Oaklawn specialist) boost; question on two turns, but value play. Owner: Not specified. Earnings: ~$150,000. |
| 7 | Strategic Risk | Javier Castellano | Mark E. Casse | 6-1 | 122 lbs | 10/11/25: 1st (Gulfstream Park, 1 1/16m FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality S., won by 9 lengths, ESF 86); Prior allowance efforts. | Gun Runner colt dominated a Florida Sire stakes at the distance; ESF 86. Casse’s second entry with Hall of Famer Castellano; could improve shipping north. Owner: Not specified. Earnings: ~$120,000. |
| 8 | Scar Ship | Ramon A. Vazquez | Ricky Courville | 12-1 | 122 lbs | 12/13/25: 2nd (Fair Grounds, 6f Louisiana Champions Day Juvenile S., beaten ½ length, ESF 90); 11/08/25: 1st (Delta Downs, 6f MSW, won by 9½ lengths); Prior debut. | Midshipman colt won debut impressively and placed in stakes; ESF 90. Trainer Courville and jockey Vazquez (Oaklawn regular) suit front-end style; pace factor with upside. Owner: Not specified. Earnings: ~$60,000. |
| 9 | Sleepingonfreedom | Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. | Kenneth G. McPeek | 5-1 | 122 lbs | 11/28/25: 1st (Churchill Downs, 1 1/16m AOC, won, ESF 88); Prior back-to-back wins on Kentucky circuit. | Blame colt on a roll with recent route wins; ESF 88. McPeek’s second entry retains jockey Hernandez Jr.; consistent but faces class test. Owner: Not specified. Earnings: ~$90,000. |
