Horse Race Preview: Race 10 – KY Downs Preview Turf Sprint Stakes at Ellis Park

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Race Overview

Race Name: KY Downs Preview Turf Sprint Stakes (Listed)

Track: Ellis Park, Henderson, KY

Surface: Turf

Distance: 5½ furlongs

Purse: $250,000

Eligibility: 3-Year-Olds & Up

Post Time: 4:12 PM ET

Field Size: 12 runners

Bonus: Winner earns automatic berth to the Grade II Turf Sprint Stakes at Kentucky Downs

Horse-by-Horse Analysis

1. Coppola

Pedigree: Into Mischief × Blind Copy

Trainer: Dale Romans

Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

Odds: 9/2

Form: 156451

Notes: Veteran sprinter with 11 career wins. Won last out at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Dangerous if he gets a clean break

2. Mo Stash

Pedigree: Mo Town × Making Mark Money

Trainer: Victoria Oliver

Jockey: Edgar Morales

Odds: 15/1

Form: 533927

Notes: Hasn’t won since early 2024. Needs a pace meltdown to be effective late

3. Joe Shiesty

Pedigree: Air Force Blue × Ready to Unleash

Trainer: Eric Foster

Jockey: Luan Machado

Odds: 5/1

Form: 701221

Notes: Speedy gelding named after Joe Burrow. Won the Mighty Beau Stakes in June. Will be prominent early

4. Go Captain

Pedigree: Mo Town × Etoile d’Allie

Trainer: Lonnie Briley

Jockey: Corey Lanerie

Odds: 30/1

Form: 327210

Notes: Inconsistent form. Likely outclassed here

5. Chiseler

Pedigree: Speightstown × Spindle

Trainer: Brittany Vanden Berg

Jockey: Christopher Emigh

Odds: 30/1

Form: 412127

Notes: Has speed but faded last out. Needs a perfect trip

6. Double Clutch

Pedigree: Optimizer × Switching Gears

Trainer: George Arnold II

Jockey: Axel Concepcion

Odds: 20/1

Form: 219354

Notes: Calumet Farm homebred. Has back class but recent efforts are dull

7. Nobals

Pedigree: Noble Mission (GB) × Pearly Blue

Trainer: Larry Rivelli

Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

Odds: 5/2 (Morning Line Favorite)

Form: 517212

Notes: 2023 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner. Multiple graded stakes victories. The class of the field

8. High Front

Pedigree: Summer Front × Tide Is High

Trainer: Steven Asmussen

Jockey: Keith Asmussen

Odds: 20/1

Form: 306022

Notes: Late runner with decent form. Could hit the board if pace collapses

9. Bal a Kazoo

Pedigree: Bal a Bali (BRZ) × Golden Sky (IRE)

Trainer: Robert Gorham

Jockey: Luis Contreras

Odds: 30/1

Form: 235734

Notes: Has struggled to finish strongly. Needs a big jump in form

10. Arzak

Pedigree: Not This Time × Delightful Melody

Trainer: Michael Trombetta

Jockey: Jaime Torres

Odds: 3/1

Form: 362746

Notes: Millionaire turf sprinter with 8 wins. Has faced top company. Major threat to Nobals

11. Charcoal

Pedigree: English Channel × Rose of Aran

Trainer: Tracey Wisner

Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza Jr.

Odds: 15/1

Form: 152062

Notes: Pulled a 26-1 upset in this race last year. Can’t be ignored

12. Bear River

Pedigree: Flameaway × Sixtyfivenorth

Trainer: J. Keith Desormeaux

Jockey: James Graham

Odds: 15/1

Form: 644173

Notes: Improving 4-year-old. Could be a pace factor from the outside

PositionHorseReasoning
1stNobalsProven class, elite turf sprinter, top connections
2ndArzakStakes experience, strong closing kick
3rdJoe ShiestyTactical speed, recent stakes win

Win Bet: Nobals

Exacta Box: Nobals / Arzak / Joe Shiesty

Trifecta Play: Nobals over Arzak and Joe Shiesty

Longshot to Watch: Charcoal – upset potential based on last year’s win