Horse Race Preview: Race 10 – Grade III Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct

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Aqueduct Racetrack – Ozone Park, Queens, New York
$300,000 – 1 mile (one turn) – Dirt – For 3-year-olds
(50-25-15-10-5 Kentucky Derby qualifying points)
Scheduled Post Time: 5:18 PM ET

Aqueduct Racetrack is located at 110-00 Rockaway Blvd in Ozone Park, Queens, New York. The Gotham Stakes is one of the oldest and most prestigious early-season Derby preps in New York, traditionally a key “win-and-you’re-in” type stepping stone on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. This is the 73rd running, and the 2026 edition features a compact but high-quality field of eight sophomores on a loaded Gotham Day card.

Expected Weather Conditions
Cold and dry with highs near 47°F (8°C) by post time and lows in the low 30s°F overnight. Skies partly to mostly cloudy with light winds (5–10 mph northwest). Precipitation chance near 0%. Track temperatures in the low-to-mid 40s°F. Perfect winter racing weather with no moisture expected.

Track Conditions: Main dirt track – expected fast. Aqueduct’s winter inner dirt has played fair to slightly inside-favoring in one-turn miles this meet, with tactical speed and stalkers excelling when early fractions are honest. No extreme bias noted in recent condition books.

Full Field with Post Positions, Morning-Line Odds, Jockeys, Trainers, Weights:

PPHorseML OddsWeightJockeyTrainer
1Balboa6/1123Sheldon RussellBrittany T. Russell
2Hammond5/1123Jaime RodriguezSaffie Joseph, Jr.
3Crown the Buckeye4/1123Ricardo Santana, Jr.Michael Maker
4Fourth and One20/1123Jose LezcanoJeremiah Englehart
5Right to Party8/1123Chris ElliottKenny McPeek
6Iron Honor6/5123Manuel FrancoChad C. Brown
7Exhibition Only15/1123Ruben SilveraRudy R. Rodriguez
8Creole Chrome12/1123Francisco ArrietaGustavo Rodriguez

Detailed Analysis of Each Horse, Jockey, and Trainer:

PP 1 – Balboa (Not This Time – …, 3YO Colt, 6/1, 123 lbs, J: Sheldon Russell, T: Brittany T. Russell)
A battle-tested colt with proven stakes form. Third in the Remsen (G2) at 1 1/8 miles here in December and a solid second in the Jerome S. (one-turn mile) last out. Sheldon Russell (family barn) knows him perfectly and should have him forwardly placed or stalking from the rail. Brittany Russell is sharp with her New York shippers. The cutback to a flat mile suits him, and the inside post is a bonus. Live contender at square odds; must-use in all tickets.

PP 2 – Hammond (… – …, 3YO Colt, 5/1, 123 lbs, J: Jaime Rodriguez, T: Saffie Joseph, Jr.)
Came from off the pace to finish a fast-closing third in the Swale S. (7f) at Gulfstream in a sharp time. Joseph is excellent stretching his Gulfstream runners to New York, and Rodriguez is a meet leader. Tactical speed and the pedigree to handle the mile make him dangerous, though the class jump from allowance/optional to graded is real. Strong exotic player.

PP 3 – Crown the Buckeye (… – …, 3YO Colt, 4/1, 123 lbs, J: Ricardo Santana, Jr., T: Michael Maker)
Maker’s speed type who set the pace in the Lecomte S. (G3) at 1 1/16 miles before fading to eighth; prior to that he was a game third in the Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds. Santana, Jr. will look to send him early from post 3. Sharp recent works suggest a rebound is possible on the cutback to one turn. Live at 4/1 with pace-setting ability.

PP 4 – Fourth and One (… – …, 3YO Colt, 20/1, 123 lbs, J: Jose Lezcano, T: Jeremiah Englehart)
New York-bred who was stakes-placed twice locally before a big maiden win at the mile here. Lezcano is excellent at rationing speed, and Englehart hits occasional longshots at Aqueduct. He’s overmatched on paper but could pick up a piece if the pace melts. Best in superfectas only.

PP 5 – Right to Party (… – …, 3YO Colt, 8/1, 123 lbs, J: Chris Elliott, T: Kenny McPeek)
Broke his maiden at Aqueduct going a mile last out with a strong rally from last to win by over a length. McPeek (master of Derby preps) and Elliott give him a big chance to improve. The one-turn mile is ideal, and he’s a logical underneath horse at 8/1.

PP 6 – Iron Honor (Nyquist – …, 3YO Colt, 6/5, 123 lbs, J: Manuel Franco, T: Chad C. Brown)
The clear morning-line favorite and most logical winner. Debuted with a visually impressive 1 ½-length win in a 6-furlong maiden special weight here on Dec. 13, earning a huge 95 Beyer / 99 Brisnet figure while tracking and finishing strongly. Brown (perennial NYRA stakes king) and Franco (perfect fit) have him ready for the stretch-out. Breeding (Nyquist out of a Blame mare) screams mile suitability. The class jump is the only question, but everything else screams star-in-the-making. The one to beat.

PP 7 – Exhibition Only (Complexity – …, 3YO Colt, 15/1, 123 lbs, J: Ruben Silvera, T: Rudy R. Rodriguez)
Consistent New York-bred with lower figures. Silvera and Rodriguez know the track, but this is a significant step up. Will need pace help and is best as a deep exotic filler.

PP 8 – Creole Chrome (… – …, 3YO Colt, 12/1, 123 lbs, J: Francisco Arrieta, T: Gustavo Rodriguez)
Improving sort with a recent strong speed figure. Arrieta is riding well, and the outside post is fine for a closer. Live longshot chance to hit the board if the favorites overdo it early.

Overall Outlook and Betting Angles:
This is a classic “favorite vs. the field” Gotham with Iron Honor (#6) towering on talent and figures after a monster debut for Chad Brown. The pace should be moderate-to-honest with Crown the Buckeye (#3) and possibly Balboa (#1) involved early, setting it up perfectly for Iron Honor or stalkers like Balboa and Right to Party (#5). The Aqueduct one-turn mile favors tactical speed and horses with proven local form.