Race Overview
The Malibu Stakes is a Grade I dirt stakes race for 3-year-old colts and geldings, contested over 7 furlongs with a $300,000 purse. This sprint event is Race 10 on an 11-race card at Santa Anita Park, located at 285 W Huntington Dr, Arcadia, CA 91007. The race is scheduled to start at 3:49 PM PT on Sunday, December 28, 2025, with the first post of the day at 11:00 AM PT.
Santa Anita’s main dirt track is a one-mile oval with a single turn for this distance. Following heavy rains earlier in the week that postponed the meet’s opening from December 26, track conditions for December 28 are expected to be fast on dirt, as the surface has dried out with no further significant precipitation forecasted. However, any unexpected moisture could lead to a good surface, potentially suiting horses with tactical speed.
Expected Weather Conditions
The forecast for Arcadia, CA, on December 28, 2025, indicates partly cloudy skies with highs around 65°F and lows near 43°F. Winds will be light at 2-8 mph, with humidity around 37% and no significant chance of rain. These mild conditions follow a wet week but should provide ideal racing weather, with no major impact on the track. Bettors should note that the cool temperatures may favor horses with early speed or those proven in California winter conditions. Attendees are recommended to wear layers for comfort.
Field Analysis
Ten horses are entered in this Grade I sprint, dominated by trainer Bob Baffert with five entrants. Below is a detailed breakdown of each, including post position (PP), recent finishes (described based on available form; most recent highlighted), jockey, trainer, key strengths/weaknesses, and prospects. Morning line odds (ML) are provided. Analysis incorporates pedigree, speed figures (Brisnet/Beyer where noted), and notes. Weights are 120 lbs unless noted, with allowances for non-winners.
Modus Bestia (PP 1, ML 15/1)
Jockey: Edwin A. Maldonado (local specialist with 14% win rate; aggressive style).
Trainer: Richard Baltas (17% in sprints; focuses on consistent types).
Recent Finishes: Limited details; has shown form in allowance races but unproven in graded company.
Analysis: Maryland-bred 3-year-old colt with sprint pedigree. Strengths: Rail draw for ground-saving trip; could stalk early. Weaknesses: Class rise is significant; lower speed figures. Prospects: Value longshot; might hang for a piece if pace collapses.
Spenard (PP 2, ML 30/1)
Jockey: Tyler Baze (versatile with 14% win rate; good on underdogs).
Trainer: Dan L. McFarlane (15% overall; occasional stakes shipper).
Recent Finishes: Steady but non-winning in recent allowances.
Analysis: Kentucky-bred 3-year-old; tactical speed. Strengths: Inside post; barn’s patience. Weaknesses: Outclassed; long odds reflect form. Prospects: Exotic filler at best; unlikely to threaten top tier.
Madaket Road (PP 3, ML 5/1)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (elite with 26% win rate; big-race winner).
Trainer: Bob Baffert (30% in graded stakes; six-time Malibu winner).
Recent Finishes: Competitive in preps; solid placings.
Analysis: Kentucky-bred 3-year-old colt owned by SF Racing et al. Strengths: Versatile; jockey upgrade. Weaknesses: Needs to step up against barnmates. Prospects: Live contender; could rally for share in Baffert-dominated field.
Speedy Wilson (PP 4, ML 15/1)
Jockey: Armando Ayuso (journeyman with 12% win rate; hustles early).
Trainer: Philip D’Amato (24% on turf but adapts to dirt; consistent).
Recent Finishes: Placed in recent sprints; improving.
Analysis: California-bred 3-year-old. Strengths: Local affinity; mid-pack flexible. Weaknesses: Graded unproven; faces tough Baffert wall. Prospects: Mid-odds value; exotic potential if speed holds.
Midland Money (PP 5, ML 7/2)
Jockey: Juan J. Hernandez (22% win rate; California leader).
Trainer: Bob Baffert (as above; dominates sprints).
Recent Finishes: Strong allowances; blinkers on for focus.
Analysis: Kentucky-bred 3-year-old with speed pedigree. Strengths: Tactical position; barn’s hot streak. Weaknesses: Mid-draw traffic risk. Prospects: Co-favorite; strong win chance in open spot.
Berlin Wall (PP 6, ML 20/1)
Jockey: Tiago Josue Pereira (solid 13% win rate; aggressive).
Trainer: Steve R. Knapp (15% in allowances; local).
Recent Finishes: Consistent but minor awards.
Analysis: California-bred 3-year-old. Strengths: Stamina edge. Weaknesses: Speed lacking for sprint; outer rivals tough. Prospects: Longshot for underneath; could close late.
Smooth Cruisein (PP 7, ML 30/1)
Jockey: Kyle Frey (14% win rate; suits pressers).
Trainer: Karen Headley (12% overall; family legacy).
Recent Finishes: Spotty form; occasional spark.
Analysis: Florida-bred 3-year-old. Strengths: Upset potential. Weaknesses: Class hike steep; post forces wide. Prospects: Bomber; minor if favorites falter.
Cornucopian (PP 8, ML 7/2)
Jockey: Flavien Prat (25% win rate; Eclipse winner).
Trainer: Bob Baffert (as above).
Recent Finishes: Debut win by 5 3/4 lengths at 6f Oaklawn (Brisnet 100, Beyer 101); 4th in Arkansas Derby (G1) after duel; 2nd in 1m AOC at Aqueduct.
Analysis: Kentucky-bred 3-year-old; blinkers off. Strengths: Impressive debut figures; bullet work (6f 1:12 4/5); cutback suits. Weaknesses: Tired in routes; adapts to sprint? Prospects: Top rebound candidate; predicted to win per analysis.
Barnes (PP 9, ML 3/1)
Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz (21% win rate; strong finisher).
Trainer: Bob Baffert (as above).
Recent Finishes: Won San Vicente (G2) and Perryville (G3); 3rd in H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1).
Analysis: Kentucky-bred 3-year-old at 122 lbs. Strengths: Proven at 7f; graded success. Weaknesses: Wide post; pressure from barnmates. Prospects: Favorite for reason; strong showing expected.
Goal Oriented (PP 10, ML 5/1)
Jockey: Joel Rosario (23% win rate; Hall of Famer).
Trainer: Bob Baffert (as above).
Recent Finishes: Competitive in stakes preps; blinkers off.
Analysis: Kentucky-bred 3-year-old. Strengths: Upside; jockey’s prowess. Weaknesses: Outermost post risks wide trip. Prospects: Intriguing; could surprise in Baffert sweep.
