2025 Stephen Foster Stakes (G1) – Race Preview & Analysis
Date: June 28, 2025
Track: Churchill Downs
Race: Race 11
Distance: 1 1/8 Miles (Dirt)
Purse: $1,000,000
Eligibility: 4-Year-Olds & Up
Post Time: 6:03 PM ET
“Win and You’re In” qualifier for the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Contenders Breakdown
1. First Mission
Pedigree: Street Sense – Elude
Trainer: Brad H. Cox
Jockey: Luis Saez
Form: 6 wins from 12 starts, $2M+ earnings
Analysis: Winner of the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) and a past Alysheba (G2) victor at Churchill. Faded to fourth in last year’s Foster but returns in sharper form. Tactical speed and rail draw make him a major player.
2. Mindframe
Pedigree: Constitution – Walk of Stars
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Form: 4 wins, 2 seconds from 6 starts
Analysis: Lightly raced 4YO with a G1 win in the Churchill Downs Stakes. Stretching back out to two turns is the question, but his pedigree and recent works suggest he’s ready. Top contender.
3. Skippylongstocking
Pedigree: Exaggerator – Twinkling
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Form: 11 wins from 32 starts, $3.6M+ earnings
Analysis: Veteran warrior with multiple G2 wins. Finished third in last year’s Foster. Always dangerous with a stalking trip, but still seeking that elusive G1 breakthrough.
4. Sierra Leone
Pedigree: Gun Runner – Heavenly Love
Trainer: Chad C. Brown
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Form: 4 wins, 3 seconds, 3 thirds from 10 starts
Analysis: 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up. Hasn’t won since the Classic and has struggled as the favorite. Still, his class is undeniable. Needs a rebound effort.
5. Mystik Dan
Pedigree: Goldencents – Ma’am
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Form: 3-for-4 at Churchill, including 2024 Kentucky Derby
Analysis: Local hero with a win in the Blame Stakes last out. Loves this track and distance. If the pace is honest, he’ll be flying late.
6. Hit Show
Pedigree: Candy Ride (ARG) – Actress
Trainer: Brad H. Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Form: Dubai World Cup winner
Analysis: International star returns stateside after a dominant win in Dubai. Candy Ride adds stamina and class. If he handles the bounce, he’s a serious threat.
7. Red Route One
Pedigree: Gun Runner – Red House
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Form: 4 wins from 20 starts
Analysis: Deep closer with a tendency to clunk up for minor awards. Needs a pace meltdown to be effective. Fringe player in this field.
Top Picks:
Win Contender: Mindframe – peaking form, elite connections
Main Rival: Mystik Dan – Churchill specialist, tactical trip
Value Play: First Mission – rail draw, proven at the distance
Exacta Box: Mindframe, Mystik Dan, First Mission
Trifecta Add-On: Sierra Leone – class edge if he rebounds
