The 2025 College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Cotton Bowl Classic pits the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes (11-2) against the No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) in a high-stakes rematch of historic rivals. This playoff matchup revives memories of their iconic clashes, including the 2003 Fiesta Bowl national championship. Miami, under head coach Mario Cristobal, seeks to advance after a breakthrough season, leveraging a potent offense against Ohio State’s elite defense. The Buckeyes, led by Ryan Day, aim to continue their dominant Big Ten run and chase another title. As a neutral-site game in the expanded 12-team playoff, it promises intensity, with Ohio State’s depth favored but Miami’s explosiveness capable of an upset.
Venue Location
The game will be played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. This 80,000-capacity domed venue, home to the NFL’s Dallas Cowboys, has hosted the Cotton Bowl since 2010 and provides a controlled indoor environment with state-of-the-art facilities and a massive video board.
Arlington’s location favors Ohio State fans with easier travel from the Midwest, though Miami’s South Florida base will draw a passionate contingent.
Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (6:30 p.m. CT / 4:30 p.m. PT). The game will be televised on ESPN.
Weather Forecast
As an indoor game at AT&T Stadium, weather will not impact play. For fans tailgating or traveling, Arlington’s forecast calls for mild conditions with a high of 63°F and a low around 43°F. Expect partly cloudy skies with a 25% chance of light precipitation, winds at 7 mph, and moderate humidity—comfortable for late December but prepare for cooler evenings.
Injury Report and Opt-Outs
Playoff games see fewer opt-outs as players chase championships, but injuries and transfers still factor in. Miami deals with secondary woes, while Ohio State enters relatively healthy, with minimal absences reported.
- Miami Hurricanes:
- Out (Injury): CB Damari Brown (undisclosed).
- Out (Injury): LB Malik Bryant (undisclosed).
- Out (Injury): WR Dylan Upshaw (undisclosed).
- Questionable/Probable (Injury): DB Keionte Scott (undisclosed; missed final three regular-season games but probable for bowl).
Miami’s secondary is thinned, potentially exposing them to Ohio State’s passing attack, but no major opt-outs beyond transfers in non-key roles.
- Ohio State Buckeyes:
- Questionable (Injury): WR Jeremiah Smith (undisclosed; limited late in season but expected to play).
- Out (Injury): WR Carnell Tate (undisclosed; missed Rutgers game).
Ohio State’s receiving corps could be impacted if Smith is limited, but reports indicate minimal opt-outs, with the team motivated for a title run.
Key Player Matchups
This game features Ohio State’s top-ranked defense (allowing fewest yards nationally at ~250 per game) against Miami’s high-powered offense (averaging 35+ points).
Key battles could decide advancement:
- Miami QB Carson Beck vs. Ohio State Secondary: Beck, a transfer standout, has thrown for over 3,000 yards and 25 TDs. He’ll face Ohio State’s elite DBs, including S Caleb Downs and CB Davison Igbinosun, who lead a unit allowing under 150 passing yards per game. If Beck exploits injuries like Scott’s status, Miami stays competitive.
- Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith vs. Miami Secondary: Smith, a sophomore sensation with 1,200+ yards and 12 TDs, is OSU’s go-to weapon.
Miami’s thinned CBs (Brown out, Scott questionable) could struggle, especially if Smith is healthy post-injury concerns.
- Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr. vs. Ohio State Run Defense: Fletcher (1,000+ yards, 10 TDs) anchors Miami’s ground game.
Ohio State’s front, allowing under 100 rushing yards per game, features DEs like Phillip Daniels and LBs for containment.
- Ohio State QB Lincoln Kienholz vs. Miami Pass Rush: Kienholz’s efficiency (20+ TDs) will test Miami’s front, led by LB Malik Bryant (if healthy), in a matchup favoring OSU’s protection. Ohio State’s defensive dominance gives them the edge, but Miami’s balance could force turnovers.
Recent Team Forms
- Miami Hurricanes: Finished 11-2 (6-2 ACC), with a late surge including wins over Louisville and Syracuse but losses to SMU and a home upset.
Averaged 35 points in wins. Form (last five): W-W-L-W-W.
- Ohio State Buckeyes: Ended 12-1 (9-0 Big Ten), undefeated in conference with blowouts over Michigan (48-10) and UCLA but a non-conference loss.
Defense allowed under 15 points per game in wins. Form (last five): W-W-W-W-L.
Conference vs. Conference
An ACC vs. Big Ten clash, where the Big Ten’s physicality often prevails. The Big Ten is 11-6 in 2025-26 bowls, while the ACC struggles at 2-11.
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Historically, Big Ten holds a 111-82-2 edge over ACC in all games, 27-22 in bowls.
Betting Trends
- Miami: 7-6 ATS overall, 4-2 ATS as underdogs. The over has hit in 8 of 13 games, but they struggle ATS against top defenses (2-4).
- Ohio State: 10-3 ATS, 8-2 ATS as favorites of 9+ points. The under has hit in 9 of 13, reflecting defensive dominance.
- General: Favorites are 8-2 SU/ATS in recent Cotton Bowls; under is 15-5 in bowls with totals ≤46.
Historical Betting Results
In Cotton Bowl history, favorites cover 8-2 ATS over the last 10 games, with outright winners on 12-4 SU/ATS runs.
The under hits frequently in low-total games (≤46). Big Ten teams are 4-2 ATS vs. ACC in recent playoff/bowl matchups.
Game Odds
Miami-FL Hurricanes 42.5
Ohio State Buckeyes – 9.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Thursday, December 31, 2025
