The Memphis Tigers (8-4) and NC State Wolfpack (7-5) cap their seasons in the Gasparilla Bowl, a Tampa tradition since 2016 pitting AAC finishers against ACC bubble teams in a first-time clash blending Memphis’ high-octane passing with NC State’s gritty run game. Memphis, seeking a third straight bowl win under Ryan Silverfield, enters on a three-game skid but boasts the league’s top-scoring offense (34.5 PPG). NC State, aiming to rebound from a midseason slump under Dave Doeren, rides a two-game win streak highlighted by a rivalry rout of UNC, but must navigate injuries in the secondary. This neutral-site opener favors the Wolfpack’s experience (11th bowl in 12 years), though the Tigers’ tempo (72 plays/game) could force a shootout.
Kickoff is set for 2:30 p.m. ET from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida (capacity 65,890; opened 1998, renovated 2016). The pirate-themed venue, home to the Buccaneers and previous Gasparilla hosts (e.g., UCF- Georgia Tech 2016), expects a pro-NC State crowd (Florida drives) but Memphis’ fanbase adds volume.
Broadcast: ESPN (national); streaming on ESPN+ and Fubo.
Weather Forecast
Tampa’s late-December forecast delivers classic Florida bowl vibes: Partly cloudy skies at kickoff with temperatures hovering at 68°F, dipping to 62°F by the fourth quarter. Winds SSE at 8-10 mph (gusts to 15 mph), humidity 75%, and a 20% chance of isolated showers early—negligible on the grass field, but monitor for brief delays. Dress light; no extreme heat or cold risks.
Team Records and Standings
Memphis’ AAC finish (4-4) trails NC State’s ACC mark (4-4), but Tigers edge in scoring (34.5 PPG vs. 28.8). Wolfpack lead defense (24.1 PPG allowed vs. 22.5).
| Team | Overall Record | Conference Record | AAC/ACC Rank | ATS Record | O/U Record |
| Memphis Tigers | 8-4 | 4-4 | 6th | 8-4 | 6-6 |
| NC State Wolfpack | 7-5 | 4-4 | 7th | 6-6 | 7-5 |
Recent Team Forms
Memphis falters late with turnover woes (3 in each loss); NC State surges post-bye, holding foes under 20 in 3/5 wins. Tigers average 420 total yds in losses; Wolfpack 421 in wins.
Memphis Tigers Last 5 Games:
| Date | Opponent | Result | Key Stats (Memphis) |
| Nov. 27 | vs. Navy | L 17-28 | 269 total yds, 3 TOs, 33% 3rd down |
| Nov. 15 | @ ECU | L 27-31 | 312 total yds, 2 INTs, 41% conv. |
| Nov. 7 | vs. Tulane | L 32-38 | 389 total yds, 3 sacks, 50% red zone |
| Oct. 31 | @ Rice | W 38-14 | 456 total yds, 1 TO, 67% 3rd down |
| Oct. 25 | vs. USF | W 34-31 | 478 total yds, 2 INTs, 55% conv. |
- Form Summary: 2-3. Averaging 30.2 PPG scored/30.4 allowed. Skid features QB Lewis’ inefficiency (58% comp. last 3); rushing holds (185 YPG).
NC State Wolfpack Last 5 Games:
| Date | Opponent | Result | Key Stats (NC State) |
| Nov. 29 | vs. UNC | W 42-19 | 416 total yds, 2 TOs, 60% 3rd down |
| Nov. 22 | @ Wake | W 34-24 | 406 total yds, 1 INT, 55% conv. |
| Nov. 15 | vs. UVA | W 35-31 | 389 total yds, 2 sacks, 50% red zone |
| Nov. 8 | @ GT | W 35-31 | 421 total yds, 3 TOs forced, 67% |
| Nov. 1 | vs. Pitt | L 34-53 | 342 total yds, 3 INTs, 44% conv. |
- Form Summary: 4-1. Averaging 36.0 PPG scored/27.6 allowed. Streak showcases Bailey’s passing (318 yds vs. ECU); run D solid (137 YPG allowed).
Conference vs. Conference: AAC vs. ACC
ACC dominates all-time (12-8 SU, 60%; 11-9 ATS, 55%) vs. AAC in bowls since 2014, averaging 31.4-26.2 scores. Overs hit 55% (avg. total 57.6 points). AAC underdogs 3-16 SU/ATS (+7 or less); ACC favorites 28-15 ATS in bowls. Recent: ACC 4-1 SU last 5 crossovers.
Injury Report
Secondaries strained: Memphis’ DBs thin post-Navy; NC State’s CBs questionable from UNC wear. No major opt-outs.
Memphis Tigers Injuries:
| Player | Status | Injury/Notes |
| B. White (LB) | Questionable | Undisclosed (Nov. 27) |
| C. Logan Jr. (CB) | Questionable | Undisclosed (Nov. 27) |
| J. Johnson (CB) | Out | Undisclosed (Nov. 7, season) |
NC State Wolfpack Injuries:
| Player | Status | Injury/Notes |
| A. Johanningsmeier (DL) | Questionable | Undisclosed (Dec. 6) |
| C. Webb (CB) | Questionable | Undisclosed |
| J. Thomas (CB) | Questionable | Undisclosed (Dec. 6) |
Key Player Matchups
Tampa turf spotlights stars: Memphis’ air raid vs. NC State’s length.
- Brendon Lewis (MEM QB, 2,415 pass yds, 18 TD) vs. NC State Secondary (C. Webb/J. Thomas, Q): Lewis’ arm (58% comp.) tests banged-up DBs (139.9 pass yds allowed/gm). Edge: Lewis—280+ yds projected.
- Hollywood Smothers (NCST RB, 964 rush yds, 8 TD) vs. Memphis Front: Smothers’ vision (5.2 YPC) exploits Tigers’ 3.8 YPC allowed. Edge: Smothers—over 100 rush yds.
- Cortez Braham Jr. (MEM WR, 912 rec yds, 8 TD) vs. NC State CBs: Braham’s routes (15.2 YPC) vs. questionable coverage. Edge: Braham—over 80 rec yds.
- CJ Bailey (NCST QB, 2,895 pass yds, 16 TD) vs. Memphis Secondary: Bailey’s efficiency (67.2% comp.) vs. Tigers’ 12 INTs. Edge: Bailey—290+ yds projected.
Bonus Watch: Wesley Grimes (NCST WR, 121 yds high) targets Memphis gaps.
Series History
First-ever meeting—no prior clashes (Memphis’ AAC era vs. NC State’s ACC tenure). Neutral-site debut; avg. G5 vs. P5 bowl score 28.4-31.2 (ACC edge). Trends: AAC 3-7 SU vs. ACC in bowls.
Head-to-Head Meetings: N/A (0-0).
- Trend: N/A. Bowls: Memphis 2-1 SU/ATS (66.7%); NC State 5-6 (45.5%).
Betting Trends
- Memphis: 8-4 ATS (66.7%); 4-2 ATS as dog (66.7%). 6-6 O/U; overs in 4/6 road/neutral. 2-1 ATS in bowls.
- NC State: 6-6 ATS (50%); 3-3 ATS as fave (50%). 7-5 O/U; overs in 5/7 ACC games. 5-6 ATS in bowls.
- Head-to-Head: N/A (first meeting).
- Public/Sharp: 65% bets on NC State ML (62% handle); sharps on Memphis +5.5 (58% handle). Bowl overs hit 55% for ACC teams.
Historical Betting Results
Inaugural matchup, no direct history. AAC vs. ACC bowls: ACC 12-8 ATS (60%), avg. total 57.6 (over 55%). Memphis 2-1 ATS in bowls (66.7%); NC State 5-6 (45.5%). Last 10 neutral AAC vs. P5: 4-6 O/U (40% over).
Game Odds
Memphis Tigers 56.5
North Carolina State Gamecocks – 3.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Thursday, December 18, 2025
