The FCS playoffs deliver another classic underdog tale in the semifinals, as the unheralded Illinois State Redbirds crash the party against a Villanova squad that’s been a model of consistency all season. This matchup pits the CAA’s resilient runners-up—riding a four-game playoff win streak that includes a shocking upset of top-seeded North Dakota State—against the Wildcats, who boast a stingy defense and home-field edge in chilly Pennsylvania. It’s the first postseason meeting between these programs, and with a berth in the national championship on the line (against the Montana intrastate winner), expect a grind-it-out affair emphasizing red-zone efficiency and turnover margin. Villanova’s balanced attack has carried them to Washington, D.C., while ISU’s ground-and-pound philosophy has toppled giants. The Wildcats’ crowd could be the X-factor, but the Redbirds’ road warriors have won eight straight away from Hancock Stadium.
Game Details
Kickoff 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Villanova Stadium, Villanova, Pennsylvania (Capacity: 13,500; expected sellout with strong local support)
Broadcast: ESPN2; Streaming on ESPN app
Series Context: First-ever playoff clash in a series that’s seen just one prior meeting (1976). Winner advances to the FCS title game on January 5, 2026, at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee.
Weather Forecast
December in suburban Philadelphia brings typical winter bite, and the outlook for kickoff favors a defensive battle with minimal disruptions. Expect temperatures around 28-32°F at gametime, dipping to the low 20s by the fourth quarter under mostly cloudy skies. Winds from the WNW at 10-15 mph could add a chill factor, but no precipitation is forecast (0-10% chance of flurries). The turf surface at Villanova Stadium should hold up well, though the cold may amplify footing issues late—teams acclimated to Midwest winters like ISU might have a slight edge in handling the elements.
Injury Report
Both teams dodged major bullets in the quarterfinals, entering this semifinal with depth intact after bye weeks and cautious practices. No game-time decisions linger, setting up a full-strength showdown.
| Team | Key Updates |
| Villanova Wildcats | Fully healthy. QB Pat McQuaide (mild shoulder tweak in quarterfinal) threw for 250+ yards vs. Tarleton State without issue. RB Ja’briel Mace practiced fully after a minor hamstring strain earlier in playoffs. |
| Illinois State Redbirds | Clean slate. All-conference WR Daniel Sobkowicz (missed time in November with a high-ankle sprain) exploded for 150 receiving yards vs. UC Davis, confirming his return to form. No new concerns post-quarterfinal. |
Key Player Matchups
These individual duels could swing momentum in a low-scoring slugfest, blending Villanova’s opportunistic D with ISU’s explosive backs.
Villanova QB Pat McQuaide vs. ISU Secondary (Led by S Sam Nkuba II): McQuaide (2,713 passing yards, 22 TDs, 6 INTs) dissected Tarleton State for 280 yards and 2 scores in the quarterfinal; his quick release has been key in the red zone. Nkuba (3 INTs, 65 tackles) anchors a unit that’s forced 14 turnovers—his coverage on slot fades could force McQuaide into checkdowns.
ISU RB Victor Dawson vs. VU Front Seven (Anchored by LB Shane Hartzell): Dawson (1,148 rushing yards, 12 TDs) gashed UC Davis for 148 yards, powering ISU’s top-15 national run game (212 YPG). Hartzell (85 tackles, 2 sacks) led VU to a 26-21 upset with 5 tackles and a sack—his run fits will test if Villanova can stack the box without losing edge rush.
Villanova WR Luke Colella vs. ISU CBs (Featuring Jalen Dwyer): Colella (812 receiving yards, 8 TDs) is McQuaide’s go-to (team-high 65 catches), thriving on crossing routes. Dwyer (4 PBUs) shut down UC Davis’ top receiver; if he shadows Colella, it opens underneath throws for ISU’s opportunistic LBs.
ISU QB Tommy Rittenhouse vs. VU Pass Rush (DEs Ahmad Johnson & Co.): Rittenhouse (2,450 yards, 18 TDs; 450 rushing yards) scrambled for a game-sealing TD vs. UC Davis. VU’s edges combined for 3 sacks in the quarterfinal—if they collapse the pocket (VU ranks top-20 in sacks), Rittenhouse’s 8 INTs could multiply.
Recent Team Forms
Both squads are surging into the semis, with Illinois State’s upset pedigree contrasting Villanova’s steady climb.
| Team | Last 5 Games (W-L) | Key Stats | Notes |
| Villanova Wildcats | 5-0 | Avg. 28.4 PPG scored; 15.2 PPG allowed; +10 turnover margin | Edged Tarleton State 26-21 (McQuaide: 280 pass yds, 2 TDs) in quarterfinal after a 31-24 regular-season win over William & Mary. Defense has held 4 of last 5 foes under 20 points; only losses: non-conference to Penn State and Monmouth. |
| Illinois State Redbirds | 5-0 | Avg. 32.6 PPG scored; 22.4 PPG allowed; +8 takeaways in playoffs | Routed UC Davis 42-31 (Dawson: 148 rush yds; Sobkowicz: 150 rec yds) after stunning No. 1 NDSU 29-28. 8-game road win streak vs. FCS foes; losses: early to Oklahoma and within MVFC (YSU, NDSU). |
Conference vs. Conference
A marquee CAA vs. MVFC clash highlights the FCS’s two deepest leagues. Villanova (7-1 in CAA) earned the auto-bid as runners-up, showcasing the conference’s defensive prowess (top-10 nationally in scoring D). Illinois State (5-3 in MVFC) snuck in as an at-large after a late surge, embodying the Valley’s grind-it-out ethos (league leads in rushing). Historically, CAA-MVFC playoff games are nail-biters (52% decided by 7 points or less since 2010), with MVFC holding a slight 14-12 edge in postseason tilts. This year’s playoffs featured four MVFC teams and three from CAA, underscoring the conferences’ stranglehold on the bracket.
Team Records
| Team | Overall Record | Conference Record | Home/Away/Neutral | Playoff Seeding |
| Villanova Wildcats | 12-2 | 7-1 | 7-0 Home / 4-1 Away / 1-1 Neutral | No. 12 Seed |
| Illinois State Redbirds | 11-4 | 5-3 | 6-1 Home / 4-2 Away / 1-1 Neutral | At-Large (Unseeded) |
Villanova’s losses: blowouts to FBS Penn State (52-6) and a thriller at Monmouth (51-33). ISU’s defeats: Oklahoma (35-3), plus MVFC slips to Youngstown State and NDSU.
Series History
With just one prior meeting in the modern era, this is essentially a blank slate—though that 1976 I-AA clash (ISU’s 19-17 win in Normal) adds intrigue. No Great Divide Trophy here, but the rarity amplifies the stakes.
| Category | Villanova Wins | ISU Wins | Ties | Notes |
| Overall | 0 | 1 | 0 | Sole meeting: ISU 19-17 (1976, Normal, IL). Avg. margin: 2 points. |
| Post-1978 (FCS Era) | 0 | 1 | 0 | No rematches; teams rarely cross paths outside playoffs. |
| Last 5 Meetings | N/A | N/A | N/A | Limited sample—expect a fresh dynamic. |
One-possession finishes define their tiny sample, mirroring ISU’s four playoff wins by 6 points or fewer.
Betting Trends & Historical Results
Head-to-Head ATS: ISU 1-0 ATS in the series (as +3 underdog in ’76). Limited data, but Redbirds are 6-2 ATS as road dogs this season.
Recent Trends: Villanova 10-4 ATS overall (7-3 home); ISU 9-5 ATS (6-2 road). Public 55% on VU spread; sharps leaning under (ISU games averaged 48 total points in playoffs).
Historical Betting Results in Similar Matchups: CAA home favorites vs. MVFC road teams are 8-5 SU but 6-7 ATS since 2015. Unders cashed in 70% of semifinal games last decade (avg. 49 points); road underdogs like ISU are 5-3 ATS in semis.
Final Score Prediction: Villanova 27, Illinois State 23
Game Odds
Villanova Wildcats – 2
Illinois State Redbirds 53
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Friday, December 19, 2025
