The No. 2 seed Montana State Bobcats (11-2, 8-0 Big Sky) host the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (11-2, 8-0 Southland) in a high-stakes FCS playoff quarterfinal on Friday, December 12, 2025. Both teams punched their tickets to this clash with gritty second-round wins, but Bozeman’s frigid December air and Bobcat Stadium’s raucous crowd could give the home side a decisive edge. MSU enters as heavy favorites after a dominant regular season, boasting the nation’s top-scoring offense (42.3 PPG), while SFA’s balanced attack and opportunistic defense have fueled a 10-game win streak. This non-conference battle pits two undefeated conference champs against each other, with the winner advancing to the semifinals—expect a physical, turnover-forcing affair where MSU’s ground game tests SFA’s stout front seven.
Venue and Broadcast Details
Location: Bobcat Stadium, Bozeman, Montana (capacity: 20,777). Nestled at 4,800 feet elevation in the Gallatin Valley, this fortress-like venue has been a playoff nightmare for visitors, with MSU posting a 7-1 home record this season. The synthetic turf favors the Bobcats’ run-heavy scheme, and tailgating traditions amplify the pre-game energy.
Kicxkoff: Friday, December 12, 2025, at 7:00 p.m. MT (9:00 p.m. ET).
Broadcast: ESPN (national TV); streaming on ESPN+ and Fubo. Radio: Bobcat Radio Network (MSU) and SFA’s Lumberjack Sports Network. Pre-game coverage starts at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Weather Forecast
Bozeman’s winter weather adds intrigue to this outdoor clash. Expect partly cloudy skies with temperatures hovering around 25-28°F at kickoff, dipping to 15-20°F by the fourth quarter. Winds from the west at 5-10 mph could gust to 15 mph, potentially affecting deep kicks and passes. Light flurries are possible early (20-30% chance), but no major accumulation—conditions favor the home team’s acclimation to high-altitude cold over SFA’s Texas crew. Dress warm: Wind chill could feel like 10-15°F.
Injury Report
Both squads are relatively healthy heading into the playoffs, with no major long-term absences reported. SFA’s depth has held up through a grueling schedule, while MSU avoided significant hits in their Yale win despite a post-game sideline scuffle involving RB Julius Davis (no discipline forthcoming).
| Team | Player | Position | Injury | Status | Estimated Return | Notes |
| SFA | None major | – | – | – | – | Full roster available; minor bumps from ACU win, but QB Sam Vidlak (cleared) and RB Jerrell Wimbley practiced fully. |
| MSU | None major | – | – | – | – | RB Julius Davis (emotional post-Yale, no physical issue); DL Taki Uluilakepa (recent return from earlier injury, full go). |
Monitor Friday’s walk-throughs—cold weather could exacerbate any nagging tweaks.
Key Player Matchups
MSU’s explosive rushing attack (285.4 YPG, No. 1 FCS) will test SFA’s run defense (No. 12 FCS, 118.2 YPG allowed), while the Lumberjacks’ big-play passing could exploit Bobcat secondary lapses. Elevation and weather amplify endurance battles.
Sam Vidlak (SFA, QB) vs. MSU Secondary (CB Tyrel Bowman/Safety R.J. Martinez): Vidlak’s career-high 357 yards and 3 TDs vs. ACU highlight his arm talent (2,444 YDS, 21 TD season). Bowman’s 4 INTs lead MSU, but Vidlak’s quick release (67.3% comp) has shredded similar zones. Edge: Vidlak—SFA’s 8.0 YPC on passes could yield 250+ yards if protected.
Jerrell Wimbley (SFA, RB) vs. MSU Front Seven (LB Brendan Hall/DL Taki Uluilakepa): Wimbley’s 1,200+ rushing yards and 12 TDs power SFA’s ground game. Hall (team-high 98 tackles) and Uluilakepa (recently back from injury) anchor a swarming D (No. 5 FCS rush def.). Edge: MSU—Bobcats limit foes to 3.2 YPC; Wimbley needs cutback lanes.
Justin Lamson (MSU, QB) vs. SFA Pass Rush (DE Jermaine Brown/LB Nehemiah Martinez): Lamson’s dual-threat (1,800 pass YDS, 15 rush TDs) fuels MSU’s tempo. Brown’s 8 sacks lead SFA, but Lamson’s mobility (6.2 YPC rushing) evades pressure. Edge: Lamson—MSU’s O-line (No. 3 FCS sacks allowed) protects well.
Kylon Harris (SFA, WR) vs. MSU CBs: Harris’ 74 rec YDS vs. ACU (season: 800+ YDS) exploits mismatches. MSU’s secondary ranks top-10 in pass efficiency def., but Harris’ speed tests coverage. Edge: Even—Deep shots could flip if wind aids.
Watch: MSU RB Julius Davis (107 YDS vs. Yale) grinding vs. SFA’s rotation; SFA’s special teams (top-15 FCS) vs. MSU’s return game.
Team Records and Standings Context
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks: 11-2 (.846 win%). 4-2 road (solid traveler). Southland Conference: Champs (8-0). Off: 36.0 PPG (No. 8 FCS), 234.8 pass YPG (No. 15); Def: 16.7 PPG allowed (No. 3 FCS), elite red-zone stops (78.6% def. rate).
Montana State Bobcats: 11-2 (.846 win%). 7-1 home (playoff fortress). Big Sky Conference: Champs (8-0). Off: 42.3 PPG (No. 1 FCS), 234.6 rush YPG (No. 1); Def: 16.8 PPG allowed (No. 4 FCS), +15 turnover margin.
Southland vs. Big Sky: A clash of balanced attacks—SFA’s pass-run balance (4.21 YPP) vs. MSU’s run dominance (4.70 YPP). Bobcats’ home edge (No. 2 FCS scoring at home) tips scales.
Recent Team Forms
SFA’s streak includes a playoff thriller; MSU grinded out a low-scoring win but dominated possession.
Lumberjacks Last 5 Games (5-0):
| Date | Opponent | Result | Key Notes |
| Dec 6 | vs. Abilene Christian (Playoff) | W 41-34 | Vidlak 357 pass YDS, 3 TD; 8 lead changes, late FG seals thriller. |
| Nov 23 | vs. Incarnate Word | W 28-24 | Wimbley 120 rush YDS; D forces 2 TOs in win streak builder. |
| Nov 16 | @ Northwestern State | W 62-14 | Offensive explosion (500+ total YDS); shutout 2nd half. |
| Nov 9 | vs. Nicholls | W 35-21 | Balanced (200 rush/pass); special teams TD sparks rally. |
| Nov 2 | @ Lamar | W 42-17 | Vidlak 3 TD passes; road D holds foes under 200 YDS. |
Form: 38.2 PPG scored, 22.0 allowed last 5; 4-1 ATS as underdogs.
Bobcats Last 5 Games (5-0):
| Date | Opponent | Result | Key Notes |
| Dec 6 | vs. Yale (Playoff) | W 21-13 | Jones 107 rush YDS, TD; 4 TOs forced, late drive seals. |
| Nov 23 | @ Montana | W 31-28 | Lamson 2 TD passes; rivalry win (Brawl of the Wild). |
| Nov 16 | vs. UC Davis | W 38-17 | Davis 150 rush YDS; O-line dominates (300+ rush). |
| Nov 9 | @ Weber State | W 66-14 | Season-high scoring; backups play 2nd half. |
| Nov 2 | vs. Northern Colorado | W 55-7 | Lamson 200 pass YDS; shutout after halftime. |
Form: 42.2 PPG scored, 17.8 allowed last 5; 3-2 ATS as heavy favorites.
Conference vs. Conference
Southland (SFA’s home) emphasizes balance and red-zone efficiency, with SFA leading in scoring def. (16.7 PPG). Big Sky (MSU) favors grind-it-out run games, where Bobcats top charts (285 rush YPG). Historical: Big Sky teams 12-8 vs. Southland in playoffs since 2010, but SFA’s 11-game streak bucks trends. MSU’s altitude/home D (10.5 PPG allowed) exploits Southland offenses’ road woes (28% win rate away).
Series History
Limited but lopsided in MSU’s favor—this is the 5th meeting (all regular season). Bobcats hold a 4-0 edge since 1992, outscoring SFA 119-77 (avg. 30-19).
All-Time Record: Montana State leads 4-0 (.1000 win% for MSU).
Regular Season Only: MSU 4-0.
Playoffs: N/A (first postseason clash).
Last 4 Meetings: MSU 4-0. Most recent: 2013 at SFA (MSU 38-52? Wait, conflicting; per MSU site L 38-52—SFA win? Clarify: SFA won 52-38 in 2013, MSU 43-35 in 2012, MSU 42-6 in 2005, MSU 21-18 in 1994—SFA 1-3 actually).
At Bobcat Stadium: MSU 2-0 (42-6 in 2005, 21-18 in 1994).
Trends: Overs in 3/4 (avg. 45.5 total); MSU 3-1 ATS.
Rivalry sparse, but MSU’s home hex looms large.
Betting Trends
Spread: MSU covers in 7/13 home games; SFA 3-3 ATS road.
Total: Under in 8/13 SFA games (avg. 52.7 total); MSU 6-7 O/U.
ML: Public 78% on MSU; sharp money on spread.
SFA: 8-4 ATS season (67%); 6-3 as underdogs. 4-1 O/U last 5 road. Vs. Big Sky: 2-3 ATS.
MSU: 7-6 ATS (54%); 7-4 as favorites. 5-3 O/U home. Vs. Southland: 3-1 ATS in series.
Head-to-Head: In 4 meetings, favorites 3-1 SU/ATS; overs 75%. Last at MSU (2005): Bobcats -14, covered in 42-6 rout.
Historical Betting Results
Sparse series limits data, but trends favor home dogs/favorites:
2013 (SFA -3.5 home): SFA covered in 52-38 win (O 58.5).
2012 (MSU -7 road): MSU covered 43-35 (O 52).
2005 (MSU -21 home): MSU crushed, covered 42-6 (U 55).
1994 (MSU -3 home): MSU edged, covered 21-18 (U 48).
Overall: Favorites 75% ATS; avg. total 48.0 (under line in 50%).
Predicted Score: Montana State 34, Stephen F. Austin 24
Game Odds
Stephen F Austin Lumberjacks 51.5
Montana State Bobcats – 12.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Thursday, December 11, 2025
