The No. 11 seed South Dakota Coyotes (10-4, 6-2 MVFC) face the No. 3 seed Montana Grizzlies (12-1, 7-1 Big Sky) in an FCS playoff quarterfinal on Saturday, December 13, 2025. Montana, riding high after a dominant 50-29 second-round rout of South Dakota State, hosts in the friendly confines of Washington-Grizzly Stadium, where they’ve gone 7-0 all-time against the Coyotes. South Dakota advanced with a statement 47-0 shutout of Mercer, showcasing their opportunistic defense amid a four-game win streak. This 21st all-time meeting—the first in the playoffs—pits the MVFC’s balanced attack against the Big Sky’s high-powered offense (38.2 PPG, No. 4 FCS), with Montana’s home-field edge and altitude (3,200 feet) potentially wearing down the visitors in a high-scoring affair. The winner heads to the semifinals—expect Montana’s passing game to exploit USD’s secondary, but the Coyotes’ ground control could keep it close.
Venue and Broadcast Details
Location: Washington-Grizzly Stadium, Missoula, Montana (capacity: 25,515). This mountain-ringed fortress, home to the Grizzlies since 1986, features natural grass turf that favors Montana’s tempo and a deafening crowd (average 24,000+ in playoffs) that creates one of the FCS’s toughest environments. At 3,200 feet elevation, it tests road teams’ conditioning.
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET (1:30 p.m. MT / 2:30 p.m. CT).
Broadcast: ABC (national TV; Roy Philpott on PxP, Sam Acho analyst, Taylor Davis sideline); streaming on ESPN+ and Fubo. Radio: Grizzly Sports Network (Montana) and Coyote Sports Radio (USD). Pre-game coverage starts at 3:00 p.m. ET on ABC.
Weather Forecast
Missoula’s early December chill adds a playoff grind. Expect partly cloudy skies with temperatures around 42°F at kickoff, cooling to 35°F by the fourth quarter. Light winds from the southwest at 5-10 mph (gusts to 15 mph) could influence punts and field goals, but no precipitation (10% chance of flurries). Wind chill feels like 35-38°F—conditions suit Montana’s acclimated squad over South Dakota’s Midwest travelers, favoring a run-heavy, ball-control game.
Injury Report
Both teams are largely healthy post-second round, with no major absences reported. Montana’s depth shone in their SDSU win, while USD’s shutout masked minor tweaks from Mercer’s physicality.
| Team | Player | Position | Injury | Status | Estimated Return | Notes |
| USD | None major | – | – | – | – | Full roster; QB Jaeden Johnson (cleared post-Mercer) and RB Travis Christian practiced fully. |
| USD | Aidan Smith | WR | Ankle | Probable | Dec. 13 | Day-to-day; limited snaps vs. Mercer (45 rec YDS)—depth WRs ready if needed. |
| MT | Eli Stader | K | Groin | Questionable | Dec. 13 | 85% FG rate; backup Ty Morrison (long snapper dual-role) could handle if sidelined. |
| MT | None major | – | – | – | – | Clean slate; O-line intact after bye-like prep. |
Monitor warmups—cold could tighten hamstrings for USD’s speedsters.
Key Player Matchups
Montana’s aerial assault (285.4 pass YPG, No. 5 FCS) tests USD’s pass defense (No. 18 FCS, 210 YPG allowed), while the Coyotes’ rushing (210 YPG) battles Grizzlies’ stout front (No. 12 FCS rush def.). Elevation favors home endurance.
Jaeden Johnson (USD, QB) vs. MT Secondary (CB Josh Seltzner/Safety Jalon Dawson): Johnson’s 2,800+ pass YDS and 25 TDs (plus 500 rush YDS) powered the Mercer shutout (3 TD passes). Seltzner’s 5 INTs lead MT’s opportunistic unit (No. 10 FCS TO forced), but Johnson’s mobility (6.2 YPC) evades blitzes. Edge: Johnson—USD’s 58% 3rd-down conv. exploits MT’s 42% red-zone def. rate.
Travis Christian (USD, RB) vs. MT Front Seven (LB Ty Gilbert/DL Kale Edwards): Christian’s 1,100+ rush YDS and 12 TDs grind defenses (120 YDS vs. Mercer). Gilbert (110 tackles) anchors MT’s swarm (3.1 YPC allowed), but Christian’s vision finds cutbacks. Edge: MT—Grizzlies limit foes to 110 rush YPG; Christian needs 4+ YPC to control clock.
Keali’i Ah Yat (MT, QB) vs. USD Pass Rush (DE Riley Delaney/LB Alex Furman): Ah Yat’s 3,200 pass YDS, 28 TDs (360 YDS, 4 TD vs. SDSU) fuel explosiveness. Delaney’s 9 sacks pressure, but Ah Yat’s quick release (68% comp) dodges sacks. Edge: Ah Yat—MT’s O-line (No. 8 FCS sacks allowed) protects elite.
Eli Sanders (MT, WR) vs. USD CBs: Sanders’ 900+ rec YDS (season-high 150 vs. SDSU) creates mismatches. USD’s secondary ranks top-15 pass eff. def., but Sanders’ YAC (5.2 avg.) shines. Edge: Even—Deep balls could decide if wind calms.
Watch: USD TE Quente Carter’s red-zone threat vs. MT’s box safeties; MT RB Nick Ostmo’s burst (1,000+ YDS) vs. USD’s rotation.
Team Records and Standings Context
South Dakota Coyotes: 10-4 (.714 win%). 5-2 road (playoff road warriors). MVFC: 2nd (6-2). Off: 32.5 PPG (No. 12 FCS), 210.0 rush YPG (No. 10); Def: 20.1 PPG allowed (No. 15 FCS), +10 TO margin.
Montana Grizzlies: 12-1 (.923 win%). 7-0 home (stadium unbeaten streak). Big Sky: Champs (7-1). Off: 38.2 PPG (No. 4 FCS), 285.4 pass YPG (No. 5); Def: 18.5 PPG allowed (No. 20 FCS), elite home D (14.2 PPG).
MVFC’s physicality (top-5 conf. rush def.) vs. Big Sky’s tempo (top-3 conf. scoring)—Montana’s home xYPP (2.1) edges USD’s road woes.
Recent Team Forms
USD’s streak features defensive gems; Montana’s lone loss was a rivalry heartbreaker, but playoff dominance prevails.
Coyotes Last 5 Games (4-1):
| Date | Opponent | Result | Key Notes |
| Dec 6 | @ Mercer (Playoff) | W 47-0 | Johnson 3 TD passes; shutout with 4 TOs forced, 400+ total YDS. |
| Nov 29 | vs. Drake | W 38-17 | Christian 140 rush YDS; balanced attack (250 pass/200 rush). |
| Nov 15 | @ SIU | W 53-51 (5OT) | Marathon thriller; Johnson 4 TD passes in comeback. |
| Nov 8 | vs. SDSU | W 24-17 | Defensive stands (2 INTs); ground control wins low-scorer. |
| Nov 1 | @ NDSU | L 28-21 | Close rivalry loss; held high-powered offense under 300 YDS. |
Form: 35.0 PPG scored, 21.0 allowed last 5; 3-2 ATS as underdogs.
Grizzlies Last 5 Games (4-1):
| Date | Opponent | Result | Key Notes |
| Dec 6 | vs. SDSU (Playoff) | W 50-29 | Ah Yat 360 pass YDS, 4 TD; 550+ total YDS, avenged past losses. |
| Nov 22 | vs. MTST | L 31-28 | Rivalry heartbreaker; outgained 400-350 but late FG miss. |
| Nov 15 | @ PRST | W 63-17 | Offensive explosion (500+ YDS); Sanders 2 TD rec. |
| Nov 8 | vs. EWU | W 29-24 | Clutch win; D forces 3 TOs in 4th-quarter stand. |
| Nov 1 | @ WEB | W 38-17 | Ah Yat 3 TD passes; road control with 300 rush YDS. |
Form: 40.2 PPG scored, 22.2 allowed last 5; 4-1 ATS as favorites.
Conference vs. Conference
MVFC stresses run-heavy, physical play (avg. 28.5 PPG scored, 22.1 allowed), with USD leading in TO forced (+10). Big Sky favors pass-oriented tempo (avg. 32.4 PPG scored, 24.8 allowed), where Montana tops charts. Historical: Big Sky teams 15-9 vs. MVFC since 2015, but MVFC’s 55% road win rate vs. Big Sky holds firm. Montana’s home scoring (42.0 PPG) exploits MVFC visitors’ 30% upset rate away.
Series History
The 21st meeting, all regular season—Montana leads 12-8 all-time, outscoring USD 412-358 (avg. 24-21). First playoff clash adds stakes.
All-Time Record: Montana leads 12-8 (.600 win% for MT).
Regular Season Only: MT 12-8.
Playoffs: N/A.
Last 5 Meetings: Split 3-2 MT. Most recent: 2022 neutral (MT 35-28 win).
At Washington-Grizzly: MT 7-0 (unbeaten streak since 1998).
Trends: Overs in 12/20 (avg. 45.0 total); MT 9-2 SU as home favorite.
Rivalry dates to 1906; expect intensity in Montana’s “fortress.”
Betting Trends
Spread: MT covers in 7/13 home games; USD 4-3 ATS road.
Total: Over in 8/14 USD games (avg. 52.6 total); MT 7-6 O/U.
ML: Public 68% on MT; sharp money on spread.
USD: 7-6-1 ATS season (54%); 5-3 as underdogs. 4-2 O/U last 6 road. Vs. Big Sky: 3-4 ATS.
MT: 9-4 ATS (69%); 7-3 as favorites. 5-4 O/U home. Vs. MVFC: 6-3 ATS in series.
Head-to-Head: Favorites 13-7 SU/ATS; overs 60%. Last at MT (2019): Grizzlies -10, covered 31-17 (U 55).
Historical Betting Results
In 20 meetings, home teams 14-6 SU (70%); favorites 13-7 ATS (65%). Avg. total 45.0 (under line in 55%).
2022 (Neutral, MT -7): MT covered 35-28 (O 52).
2019 (MT -10 home): MT covered 31-17 (U 55).
2016 (USD +3 road): USD covered in upset 24-21 (U 48).
2013 (MT -6 home): MT covered 28-20 (O 51). Avg.: Home favorites 80% ATS; 60% overs.
Predicted Score: Montana 38, South Dakota 27
Game Odds
South Dakota Coyotes 59.5
Montana Grizzlies – 8.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Friday, December 12, 2025
