The No. 15 seed North Dakota Fighting Hawks (8-5), who advanced with a gritty 31-6 first-round playoff road win over No. 13 Tennessee Tech on November 29, travel to face the No. 4 seed Tarleton State Texans (11-1), the United Athletic Conference’s at-large powerhouse that earned a first-round bye after a dominant regular season capped by a 59-3 rout of Mississippi Valley State on November 22. At Tarleton Memorial Stadium, where the Texans have posted a perfect 6-0 home record and outscored foes by 28.5 points per game, this Missouri Valley (UND) vs. United Athletic (Tarleton) playoff tilt pits North Dakota’s balanced, comeback-fueled attack (averaging 28.2 PPG in wins) against Tarleton’s explosive offense (FCS’s No. 1 scoring unit at 45.2 PPG, leading the nation in turnover margin at +1.8 per game). The Fighting Hawks, who snapped a three-game skid with their playoff opener, boast a stout secondary (allowing 180.5 pass YPG, 22nd in FCS) to counter Tarleton’s aerial assault (335.8 pass YPG, 3rd), but the Texans’ rush D (4th at 90.5 YPG allowed) could stifle UND’s ground game (153 rush YPG, 45th). With no prior meetings and Tarleton seeking their deepest playoff run since 2021, expect a high-scoring duel in Texas warmth—projected final: Tarleton State 38-27, advancing behind QB Victor Gabalis’ efficiency and a opportunistic secondary forcing turnovers from UND’s Jerry Kaminski.
Venue, Date, and Time
Venue: Tarleton Memorial Stadium, 1000 N 4th St, Stephenville, TX 76401. Capacity: 8,000 (FCS standard; expected sellout of 7,500+ for playoffs). This on-campus stronghold, opened in 1966 and renovated in 2021, features a fervent Texan crowd and natural grass surface that favors Tarleton’s up-tempo style—home to six straight wins, including a 30-27 2OT upset of FBS Army on August 30.
Kickoff: 12:00 PM ET (11:00 AM CT / 10:00 AM PT).
Broadcast: ESPN+ (national streaming), FloFootball (FCS exclusive), Tarleton Sports Network (local radio). Pre-game pageantry and student sections will ignite the atmosphere for this noon kickoff, aligning with Southern FCS playoff vibes.
Weather Forecast
Stephenville-area weather on December 6, 2025, forecasts mild, sunny conditions ideal for football, with highs climbing to 69°F (21°C) and kickoff temps around 62°F (17°C)—warmer than historical averages (average high 57°F, low 36°F). Expect mostly sunny skies with a mere 10% chance of isolated showers (trace precipitation), light winds (5-8 mph from the S), and low humidity (45-55%). The warmth could boost passing games for both QBs, with no delays anticipated on the grass field; sunscreen and light jackets for fans. (Forecast based on long-range models; verify via Weather.com closer to game day.)
Team Records
| Team | Overall Record | Home/Away/Neutral Split | MVFC/United Athletic Standings | Key Stats (PPG / Opp PPG / Rush YPG Allowed) |
| North Dakota Fighting Hawks | 8-5 | 5-2 Home / 3-3 Away / 0-0 Neutral | 4th (5-3 MVFC) | 26.8 / 24.2 / 142.5 |
| Tarleton State Texans | 11-1 | 6-0 Home / 5-1 Away / 0-0 Neutral | 1st At-Large (7-1 UAC) | 45.2 / 18.3 / 90.5 |
North Dakota ranks 35th in scoring offense but 41st in defense, while Tarleton leads FCS in PPG and turnover margin (+1.8/game), allowing just 281 total YPG (8th).
Recent Team Forms
Tarleton’s dominance meets North Dakota’s playoff resurgence after a late-season stumble.
Fighting Hawks (3-3 in last 6): UND cruised to a 31-6 playoff win over Tennessee Tech on November 29 (Kaminski: 4 TD passes, 2 to Hromadka), halting a three-game skid that included a 34-31 OT loss to South Dakota State (November 22) and 26-21 at South Dakota (November 15). Earlier wins: 50-20 over Portland State (November 8, Kaminski: 4 TD passes/1 rush TD). Averaging 28.5 PPG with 385 total YPG (28th in FCS) in the stretch, their secondary shines (180.5 Opp PYPG allowed, 22nd)—road form middling (3-3, -0.8 margin), but ATS 4-2.
Texans (7-0 in last 7): Tarleton earned a bye after a 59-3 demolition of Mississippi Valley State on November 22 (Gabalis: 5 TD passes), extending a streak that featured a 61-0 rout of North Alabama (November 15, Gabalis: 4 TD passes) and 45-10 over West Georgia (November 8). Lone loss: 30-27 2OT at Abilene Christian (October 25). Averaging 48.7 PPG with 505.5 YPG (1st FCS), their D has blanked three of seven—home flawless (6-0, +28.5 margin).
Conference vs. Conference
This MVFC (North Dakota) vs. United Athletic (Tarleton) playoff matchup contrasts MVFC’s gritty, balanced defenses (avg. 24.2 Opp PPG, top-5 rush D) with UAC’s explosive, turnover-forcing offenses (avg. 42.1 PPG, +1.2 turnover margin). Historically, MVFC teams hold a 10-6 edge in FCS playoff crossovers vs. UAC/Southland predecessors since 2010, but Tarleton (UAC at-large) is 1-0 in playoffs (2021 win over Eastern Kentucky). North Dakota’s 2-1 in MVFC playoffs (wins over Montana State 2018, Eastern Washington 2019), but 0-1 vs. UAC foes (loss to Abilene Christian 2023). Expect a hybrid total (proj. 51.0 points), favoring Tarleton’s scoring in a warm-weather shootout.
Injury Report
Tarleton enters fully healthy post-bye; North Dakota monitors QB depth. Updates as of December 5, 2025 (FCS official report).
| Team | Player | Status | Injury Details | Impact |
| Fighting Hawks | Sawyer Seidl (TE) | PROBABLE | Shoulder (limited vs. TTU; full practice Dec. 3, 85% chance). | Key blocker/receiver (8 rec, 2 TDs); lines intact if active. |
| Fighting Hawks | Several DBs (unnamed) | DAY-TO-DAY | Minor from Nov. 29 (per coach Schmidt); bye aided recovery. | Secondary holds; Kaminski sacked 1.5/gm. |
| Texans | None listed | All available | Clean bill; Gabalis/Hines lines full go. | Depth boost—D eyes 4th straight opponent under 20 pts. |
Texans’ health amplifies offense; Hawks’ tweaks test protection.
Key Player Matchups
Tarleton’s pass game vs. UND’s secondary spotlights; these could swing momentum.
Jerry Kaminski (Hawks QB) vs. Tarleton Secondary (Led by S Brandon Tolvert): Kaminski’s dual-threat (4 TD passes/1 rush TD vs. TTU) challenges Tolvert’s picks (4 INTs); expect 220+ yards if mobile—Kaminski eyes 2 TDs vs. Tarleton’s 35th-ranked pass D.
Nathan Hromadka (Hawks WR) vs. Tarleton CB (Unnamed): Hromadka’s hands (2 TDs vs. TTU) exploits coverage; duel projects 100 rec yards, but Tarleton’s +1.8 turnover margin forces errors.
Victor Gabalis (Texans QB) vs. UND LB (Unnamed): Gabalis’ efficiency (72% comp, 28 TDs) tests pressure; air battle favors Tarleton if protected (proj. 300+ yards).
Tylan Hines (Texans RB) vs. North Dakota Front (Anchored by DE): Hines’ burst (890 rush yards, 7 TDs) bullies run stuffs; ground duel tips over if gaps open.
Texans’ stars tilt offense.
Series History
No prior meetings—these programs from different conferences (MVFC vs. UAC) have never squared off in regular season or playoffs. Broader trends: MVFC holds 10-6 edge in FCS playoff games vs. UAC/Southland since 2010, but Tarleton 1-0 in playoffs (2021 win over EKU). At Memorial Stadium: Tarleton 6-0 home in playoffs/non-con since 2021. Trends: Overs in 7/16 MVFC-UAC tilts (avg. 52.4 points); Tarleton covers 5-2 ATS as home favorites >3 pts
Betting Trends
Tarleton’s offense and home streak draw sharp action, but North Dakota’s dog resilience in playoffs tempts. Public: 60% on Texans spread (65% handle on Hawks). Trends: Tarleton 7-1 ATS last 8 home; North Dakota 5-2 ATS as underdogs >5 pts. Overs 6-2 in Tarleton’s last 8; Hawks overs 5-3 road. Historical vs. similar: UAC favorites 8-4 SU in playoffs vs. MVFC (covers 7-5 ATS); North Dakota 3-1 ATS last 4 as +6+ dogs.
Historical Betting Results
No direct H2H, but in 14 MVFC-UAC playoff meetings since 2010: UAC 7-7 SU (50%), 8-6 ATS (57.1%). Last 10: MVFC 6-4 SU, avg. margin 7.2 points (Tarleton’s UAC kin 2-1 ATS home). Tarleton 6-2 ATS last 8 as favorites (covers 75% at home); North Dakota 4-3 ATS last 7 as road dogs (4-3 O/U). Playoff context: No. 4 seeds 15-9 SU in second round (62.5%), covering 12-12 ATS; No. 15 seeds 5-19 SU but 10-14 ATS as dogs.
Game Odds
North Dakota Fighting Hawks 52.5
Tarleton State Texans – 6.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Friday, December 5, 2025
