The No. 8 seed Illinois State Redbirds (9-4), who punched their ticket with a 34-10 first-round playoff rout of Eastern Kentucky on November 29, face a daunting rematch against the No. 1 seed North Dakota State Bison (12-0), the defending FCS champions and MVFC titans who earned a first-round bye after clinching their 12th conference crown in 15 seasons. At the Fargodome, where NDSU has won 16 straight playoff games dating to 2010, this all-MVFC showdown revives a lopsided rivalry—North Dakota State has won 13 straight over Illinois State, including a 33-16 regular-season thumping on October 4, 2025. The Redbirds’ opportunistic passing attack (Tommy Rittenhouse: 21-of-25 for 338 yards/4 TDs in their last win) meets the Bison’s suffocating defense (11.7 PPG allowed, 1st in FCS), setting up a classic David vs. Goliath battle. With Fargo’s dome shielding outdoor woes and both squads relatively healthy, expect a low-scoring affair dominated by NDSU’s ground game—projected final: North Dakota State 28-13, extending their FCS playoff win streak to 17 and advancing to the quarters behind Cam Miller’s efficiency and a relentless front seven.
Venue, Date, and Time
Venue: Gate City Bank Field at the Fargodome, 1800 N University Dr, Fargo, ND 58102. Capacity: 19,000 (FCS record for attendance; expected sellout of 18,700+ for playoffs). This iconic indoor dome, NDSU’s home since 1992, features a raucous “Bison” faithful and artificial turf that amplifies the Bison’s up-tempo style—site of 10 national titles and 16 straight playoff wins.
Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET (12:00 PM CT / 10:00 AM PT).
Broadcast: ESPN+ (national streaming), FloFootball (FCS exclusive), Bison 96.7 FM (local radio). Pre-game tailgates and Thundercats student section will electrify the dome for this early afternoon kickoff, aligning with MVFC playoff traditions.
Weather Forecast
As an indoor dome venue, the Fargodome is immune to external conditions, ensuring a controlled environment at a consistent 68°F (20°C) with no wind or precipitation impacts. For reference, Fargo’s outdoor forecast on December 6, 2025, predicts highs around 18°F (-8°C) and lows near 5°F (-15°C)—below historical averages (average high 24°F, low 8°F)—with partly cloudy skies, a 30% chance of light snow (0.5 inches total), and winds at 10-15 mph from the NW. The chill won’t affect gameplay, but tailgaters should bundle up; dome conditions favor a fast-paced, pass-friendly contest.
Team Records
| Team | Overall Record | Home/Away/Neutral Split | MVFC Standings | Key Stats (PPG / Opp PPG / Rush YPG Allowed) |
| Illinois State Redbirds | 9-4 | 5-2 Home / 3-2 Away / 1-0 Neutral | 3rd (6-2 MVFC) | 29.8 / 21.3 / 129.4 |
| North Dakota State Bison | 12-0 | 7-0 Home / 5-0 Away / 0-0 Neutral | 1st (8-0 MVFC) | 42.2 / 11.7 / 98.5 |
Illinois State ranks 18th in scoring offense but 23rd in defense, while NDSU leads FCS in PPG (3rd) and rush D (5th at 98.5 YPG), allowing just 238 total YPG (1st).
Recent Team Forms
NDSU’s perfection meets Illinois State’s playoff spark after a regular-season rematch loss.
Redbirds (4-2 in last 6): Illinois State dominated Eastern Kentucky 34-10 in their playoff opener on November 29 (Rittenhouse: 338 pass yards/4 TDs), extending a three-game win streak that included a 46-32 upset of Murray State (November 22, Rittenhouse: 21-of-25/338/4 TDs) and 42-30 over Indiana State (November 15). Their losses: 33-16 to NDSU (October 4) and 24-7 at South Dakota State (October 25). Averaging 35.2 PPG with 368.5 total YPG (top-20 FCS) in the surge, but pass D vulnerabilities (300.5 Opp PYPG, 119th) loom—road form solid (3-2, +4.2 margin).
Bison (6-0 in last 6): NDSU earned a bye after clinching the MVFC with a 38-7 rout of South Dakota State on November 22 (Cole Payton: 380 total yards/4 rush TDs), following 31-0 over Northern Iowa (November 15) and 35-10 at Missouri State (November 8). Undefeated overall, averaging 42.2 PPG with 474.1 YPG (6th FCS), their D has held foes to single digits in four of six—home unbeatable (7-0, +30.5 margin).
Conference vs. Conference
This all-MVFC playoff tilt (both from Missouri Valley Football Conference) underscores intra-conference parity: MVFC’s physical, run-heavy style (avg. 48.6 combined PPG, top-3 rush offenses) vs. its own defensive prowess (avg. 24.2 Opp PPG). Historically, higher seeds in MVFC playoff matchups win 75% SU since 2010 (12-4), with NDSU 8-0 in such (covers 6-2 ATS). Illinois State’s 2-1 in MVFC playoffs (wins over UNI 2018, SDSU 2019), but 0-2 vs. NDSU. Expect a lower total (proj. 41.5 points) than MVFC norms, favoring the Bison’s efficiency in a dome grinder.
Injury Report
NDSU largely healthy post-bye; Illinois State monitors depth. Updates as of December 5, 2025 (FCS official report).
| Team | Player | Status | Injury Details | Impact |
| Redbirds | Tye Niekamp (LB) | PROBABLE | Ankle (limited vs. EKU; full practice Dec. 3, 85% chance). | Top tackler (43 stops, 3 TFLs); D holds if active. |
| Redbirds | Several OL (unnamed) | DAY-TO-DAY | Minor bumps from Nov. 29 (per coach Spack); bye aided. | Protection intact; Rittenhouse sacked 1.0/gm. |
| Bison | None listed | All available | Clean slate; Payton/Brown lines full go post-bye. | Depth boost—D eyes 5th straight shutout vs. FCS. |
Bison’s health amplifies their front; Redbirds’ absences test secondary.
Key Player Matchups
NDSU’s rush D vs. ISU’s pass game headlines; these could dictate flow.
Tommy Rittenhouse (Redbirds QB) vs. NDSU Secondary (Led by CB Jaden Calderon): Rittenhouse’s hot hand (72.6% comp, 22 TDs) tests Calderon’s picks (4 INTs); expect 220+ yards if protected—Rittenhouse eyes 2 TDs vs. NDSU’s 45th-ranked pass D.
Michael Dilliard (Redbirds RB) vs. NDSU Front (Anchored by DT Eli Mostaert): Dilliard’s burst (193 team rush YPG) bullies Mostaert’s stuffs (8 TFLs); duel projects 100 rush yards for Dilliard, but NDSU’s 5th-ranked rush D caps at 80.
Cole Payton (Bison QB) vs. ISU LB (Tye Niekamp): Payton’s dual-threat (979 pass/277 rush yards, 10 TDs) exploits Niekamp’s coverage (43 tackles); air battle favors NDSU if Miller scrambles.
Jaden Calderon (Bison CB) vs. Illinois State WR (Bryce Lance): Calderon’s shutdown vs. Lance’s deep threat (337 yards/2 TDs); coverage duel tips under if pressure mounts.
Bison’s D matchups dominate.
Series History
This MVFC rivalry dates to 2004, with NDSU dominating 14 of 16 meetings (.875 win%): All-time: North Dakota State 14-2. Recent: Bison 33-16 on October 4, 2025 (Payton: 3 TD passes); 42-10 in 2024. Redbirds’ wins: 2010 (24-3), 2009 (34-31 OT). At Fargodome: NDSU 8-0. Trends: Unders in 9/16 (avg. 38.4 points); Bison cover 10-6 ATS. Playoff meetings: None—NDSU seeks first vs. ISU in postseason.
Betting Trends
NDSU’s streak and home dominance draw heavy action, but ISU’s dog value in playoffs tempts. Public: 65% on Bison spread (62% handle on Redbirds). Trends: NDSU 8-2 ATS last 10 home; ISU 5-3 ATS as underdogs >10 pts. Overs 3-7 in Bison’s last 10; ISU unders 6-4 road. Historical vs. similar: MVFC favorites 12-4 SU in playoffs (75%), covering 9-7 ATS; ISU 2-1 ATS last 3 as +14+ dogs.
Historical Betting Results
In 16 meetings: NDSU 11-5 ATS (68.8%), with 7-9 O/U (43.8% over). Last 10: Bison 7-3 ATS, avg. margin 18.2 points (all covers >10). ISU 3-7 ATS as underdogs, but 5-5 O/U in losses. Playoff context: No direct, but NDSU 16-0 SU in home playoffs (14-2 ATS); MVFC No. 1 seeds 18-2 SU in second round (covers 15-5 ATS since 2010).
Game Odds
Illinois State Redbirds 41.5
North Dakota State Bison – 14.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Friday, December 5, 2025
