The 2025 Mountain West Football Championship delivers a trilogy finale with playoff stakes, as the No. 20 UNLV Rebels (10-2, 6-2 MWC) chase redemption against the No. 10 Boise State Broncos (8-4, 6-2 MWC) in a rematch of October’s 56-31 Broncos rout. This marks the third straight title-game clash between these rivals, with Boise State seeking a historic three-peat after claiming the last two crowns. UNLV, under Dan Mullen, enters on a four-game win streak with the league’s top-scoring offense (37.2 PPG), but faces a Broncos defense that ranks top-15 nationally in scoring (21.8 PPG allowed). Hosting rights went to Boise via head-to-head tiebreaker in a chaotic four-way conference knot, positioning the winner for a strong 12-team CFP case. Boise opens as a slim home favorite in a projected high-wire act on the blue turf, where rain could tilt toward the Rebels’ ground attack.
Venue and Game Details
Location: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho (Capacity: 36,016; home of the Boise State Broncos since 1970, known for its iconic blue turf).
Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET (6:00 p.m. MT / 5:00 p.m. PT).
Broadcast: FOX (with streaming on FOX Sports App, Fubo, and YouTube TV).
Weather Forecast
Evening conditions in Boise call for cool temperatures around 41-45°F at kickoff under partly cloudy skies, with a 25-40% chance of light rain or flurries that could slicken the turf (per AccuWeather models). Winds light at 2-7 mph from the northwest, minimizing disruption but potentially favoring short passes and runs if precipitation hits. No severe alerts; Mullen noted travel acclimation, but the damp setup may slow Boise’s explosive plays (5.8 YPP in dry conditions).
Injury Report
Both teams carry QB uncertainties into the spotlight, with Boise’s starter Maddux Madsen limited by an ankle tweak that sidelined him recently. UNLV’s receiving corps is thinned, impacting red-zone options. Full practices Tuesday suggest most will push through, per team reports.
| Team | Player | Position | Status | Injury Details |
| UNLV | Var’keyes Gumms | TE | Questionable | Hamstring; limited vs. Utah State, day-to-day. |
| UNLV | Rashawn Jackson | WR | Questionable | Undisclosed; missed snaps in win over SJSU. |
| UNLV | Jae Beasley II | TE | Questionable | Undisclosed; uncertain for Friday. |
| UNLV | E. Haynes | OG | Out | Undisclosed; season-long O-line depth hit. |
| Boise State | Maddux Madsen | QB | Questionable | Ankle; backup Cutforth started last two, full go Wednesday. |
| Boise State | Ben Ford | WR | Out | Undisclosed; missed final month. |
| Boise State | Dion Washington | DL | Questionable | Undisclosed; limited in Utah State prep. |
| Boise State | H. Schmidt | OG | Questionable | Undisclosed; O-line rotation concern. |
| Boise State | Demetric Whitlock Jr. | WR | Questionable | Undisclosed; recent addition to report. |
| Boise State | Chris Marshall | WR | Questionable | Undisclosed; key target if available. |
UNLV RB Jai’Den Thomas and Boise RB Malik Sherrod are fully cleared after heavy workloads.
Key Player Matchups
Boise’s home dominance (5-1) vs. UNLV’s road resilience (5-1) sets up trench battles, with QBs under duress (combined 2.8 sacks/game allowed). Turnovers loom large—Boise +1.2 margin (18th nationally) vs. UNLV’s 1.1 forced/game.
Boise State QB Max Cutforth/Maddux Madsen vs. UNLV LB Marsel McDuffie: Cutforth (341 yards, 2 TDs vs. Utah State) steps up if Madsen (ankle) sits, fueling Boise’s No. 22 passing game (278 YPG). McDuffie (All-MWC, 95 tackles) leads a Rebels front that’s third in MWC sacks (2.4/game), but struggled vs. Boise’s O-line in October (0 sacks allowed).
UNLV QB Anthony Colandrea vs. Boise State DE Ahmed Hassane: Colandrea (2,500+ yards, 22 TDs, 250+ yards in five straight) drives UNLV’s air raid (top-35 nationally). Hassane (8 sacks) anchors Boise’s top-15 pass rush (2.6 sacks/game), exploiting UNLV’s 48 sacks allowed—Colandrea’s quick release (2.3 sec) key in wet conditions.
UNLV RB Jai’Den Thomas vs. Boise State LB Chase Martin: Thomas (All-MWC, 1,100+ rush yards, 12 TDs) powers 205 YPG on ground (17th nationally), clearing 100+ in four of last five. Martin (questionable undisclosed, 80 tackles) fronts Boise’s 142 YPG rush D (35th), but Rebels gashed them for 150+ in October revenge bid.
Boise State WR Chris Marshall vs. UNLV CB J. Reynolds: Marshall (questionable, 600+ yards, 19.5 YPR) stretches fields for Cutforth. Reynolds (4 INTs) keys UNLV’s secondary (top-40 pass efficiency D), but Marshall’s deep threat (5 catches 50+ yards) exposed them in the 56-31 loss.
Offenses project edges in sims (combined 68.4 PPG), but weather and injuries tilt toward underdog value.
Team Records and Season Overview
A four-way 6-2 tie atop the MWC standings triggered computer metrics (SP+, SOR, KPI, SportSource) for qualifiers, with UNLV (45.50 avg.) and Boise (47.75) advancing—head-to-head sent it to the blue turf. UNLV’s surge (9-1 after 1-1 start) features FBS-best streak of 250+ pass yards/game; Boise’s balance (451 YPG total, 22nd) overcame a 6-2 skid with late wins.
| Team | Overall Record | MWC Record | National Rank (AP) | Offensive PPG | Defensive PPG Allowed |
| UNLV | 10-2 | 6-2 | No. 20 | 37.2 | 24.1 |
| Boise State | 8-4 | 6-2 | No. 10 | 31.5 | 21.8 |
UNLV: Mullen’s squad notched signature non-con W (UCLA), but stumbled in October (Boise, UNM).
Boise State: Spencer Danielson’s group rebounded from Power 4 L (South Florida) with 6-1 conference heater.
Recent Team Forms
UNLV rides a four-game streak, outscoring foes 151-63 while forcing 7 turnovers. Boise has won three of four but exposed flaws in losses (outgained 400-200 by Utah State).
UNLV Last 5 Games:
| Date | Opponent | Result | Key Stats |
| Nov 29 | SJSU | W 42-17 | Colandrea: 270 pass yds, 3 TDs |
| Nov 15 | Utah State | W 29-26 (2OT) | Thomas: 88 rush yds; Defense: 2 INTs |
| Nov 8 | at CSU | W 42-10 | Colandrea: 251 pass yds, 4 TDs |
| Nov 1 | UNM | L 35-40 | Passing: 382 yds but 2 INTs |
| Oct 25 | Fresno State | W 38-24 | Rushing: 180 yds, 2 TDs |
Boise State Last 5 Games:
| Date | Opponent | Result | Key Stats |
| Nov 28 | Utah State | W 25-24 | Cutforth: 341 pass yds, 2 TDs; Walk-off |
| Nov 22 | at Nevada | W 49-21 | Gaines: 149 rush yds, 2 TDs |
| Nov 15 | Fresno State | L 7-17 | Cutforth: 104 pass yds; Shutout nearly |
| Nov 1 | at SJSU | L 7-30 | Rushing: 67 yds |
| Oct 24 | Air Force | W 24-3 | Madsen: 175 pass yds; Defense: 3 INTs |
Series History
Boise State dominates 12-3 all-time, including 9-0 since 2011 and 4-0 in title games (avg. margin 17.5). Recent clashes average 70+ points, with Boise’s home streak (7-0) unyielding. UNLV’s last win: 1976 (31-26).
| Date | Location | Result (UNLV Score – BSU Score) | Notes |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Boise, ID | L 31-56 | Boise rolls with 500+ yds |
| Dec 6, 2024 | Boise, ID (Champ) | L 7-21 | Defensive Broncos win |
| Dec 2, 2023 | Las Vegas, NV (Champ) | L 20-44 | Boise three-peat bid starts |
| Oct 25, 2024 | Las Vegas, NV | L 24-29 | Narrow regular-season L |
| Oct 5, 2019 | Las Vegas, NV | L 13-38 | Boise controls trenches |
UNLV’s revamped D (up 15% efficiency) eyes upset, but history favors the Broncos.
Betting Trends
UNLV: 7-5 ATS (58.3%), 4-1 ATS in last 5 road; 8-4 O/U, overs in 6 of 8 vs. top-25 Ds. Public 55% on Rebels +3.5.
Boise State: 6-4-2 ATS (60%), 13-3 ATS as home favorites; 7-5 O/U, overs in 5 of 7 conference. Public 60% on Boise ML.
Head-to-Head: Boise 9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS; all last 4 hit over (avg. 72 points).
Advanced: UNLV +0.8 turnover margin
Predicted Score: Boise State 32, UNLV 27
Game Odds
UNLV Rebels 58.5
Boise State Broncos – 4
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Thursday, December 6, 2025
