The Sun Belt Conference’s West-East crossover finale pits the bowl-fringe Texas State Bobcats (5-6, 3-4 Sun Belt) against the fading South Alabama Jaguars (4-7, 2-5 Sun Belt) at Hancock Whitney Stadium. Texas State, under GJ Kinne, can secure a postseason nod (projected New Orleans Bowl) with a victory after a 31-20 road win over ULM last week, extending their home streak. South Alabama, Kane Wommack’s squad in turmoil, enters on a four-game skid following a 28-24 loss at Troy—scrambling for any positivity amid offensive struggles. The Bobcats’ dual-threat QB Jordan McCloud tests USA’s leaky secondary (bottom-30 pass D), while the Jaguars’ ground attack could exploit Texas State’s front—expect Mobile humidity, Jaguar roars, and a gritty battle for Sun Belt positioning under the lights.
Venue Location
The game is hosted at Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, Alabama. This 25,000-seat coastal gem, opened in 2020, is South Alabama’s home since 2020 and features a vibrant “Jag Nation” student section with Gulf views. It’s a 500-mile drive from San Marcos, Texas, drawing a pro-Jaguars crowd for the program’s first sellout since 2023—USA holds a 2-1 home edge in the series.
Kickoff: 3:00 p.m. ET (2:00 p.m. CT)
Broadcast: ESPN+ (primary), with streaming on ESPN app and Fubo. Radio: South Alabama’s 107.5 FM (Jaguar Sports Network); Texas State’s 93.5 The Legend.
Weather Updates
Mobile’s late-November forecast offers balmy, fan-friendly Gulf Coast warmth with minimal disruptions. Expect partly cloudy skies with a high of 68°F (20°C) and a low around 52°F (11°C). Winds: Light 5-10 mph from the south, with 20% chance of isolated showers in the evening. Humidity ~75%, but the grass field (Bermuda) drains quickly—ideal for Texas State’s up-tempo offense, though any mist could slick punts in a potential track meet.
Injury Report
Texas State’s depth has held firm, but South Alabama’s QB and O-line are battered, contributing to their skid. Updates as of November 28.
South Alabama Jaguars:
| Player | Position | Status | Injury Details | Impact |
| Gio Rinaldi | QB | Questionable | Shoulder (limited vs. Troy; bye-week rehab) | Starter (2,100 yds, 14 TDs); if out, sophomore backup drops efficiency—Jaguars 1-5 without full QB health. |
| Kenton Kirkland | OL | Out | Undisclosed (season-ending) | Tackle; O-line allowed 32 sacks (115th nationally)—run game vulnerable. |
| J.R. Burney | WR | Probable | Hamstring (full practice) | Slot speed (30 rec, 450 yds); key YAC threat if cleared. |
Overall: Six players limited/out per Sun Belt reports; front seven intact but pass rush weak (90th sacks).
Texas State Bobcats:
| Player | Position | Status | Injury Details | Impact |
| Jordan McCloud | QB | Available | No issues (cleared post-bye) | Dual-threat star (2,800 yds, 20 TDs; 400 rush yds); Bobcats 5-1 with McCloud 250+ total yds. |
| Chris Rhodes | RB | Questionable | Ankle (limited vs. ULM) | Lead rusher (900 yds, 10 TDs); rotational depth covers if needed. |
| Beaux Collins | WR | Out | Lower body (midseason) | Slot receiver (35 rec, 500 yds); shifts targets amid top-50 passing. |
Overall: Four limited; Kinne noted “manageable” after ULM, with secondary stout (top-40 TOs).
Player Matchups
Texas State’s athleticism (top-50 SP+ offense) exploits USA’s inconsistencies (bottom-50 defense). Coastal air adds ~2-3% scoring per models.
South Alabama QB Gio Rinaldi (questionable) vs. Texas State Secondary: Rinaldi’s rhythm (62% comp., 14 TDs) carves short. Bobcats’ DBs (top-40 efficiency, 12 INTs) force TOs. Edge: Texas State—Bobcats 5-1 with 2+ TOs; Jaguars 1-5 with 3+ giveaways.
Texas State QB Jordan McCloud vs. USA Pass Rush: McCloud’s mobility (400 rush yds) extends plays. Jaguars’ front (bottom-60 sacks) pressures 20% dropbacks. Edge: McCloud—Bobcats 4-1 exceeding 350 yds/game.
South Alabama RB (committee) vs. Texas State Front Seven: Jaguars’ backs (140 YPG) test LBs (top-50 run D, 120 yds allowed). Edge: Texas State—Jaguars 0-4 under 100 rush yds.
Texas State WR (post-Collins) vs. USA CBs: Boundary targets (est. 1,000 yds) exploit zones. Jaguars bend (bottom-30 passer rating). Edge: Texas State—Bobcats 4-2 when WRs hit 200+ yds.
Recent Team Forms
South Alabama Jaguars: Wommack’s Jaguars slipped 28-24 at Troy (Nov. 23), with Rinaldi’s flashes (200 yds) undone by turnovers (10 given last 3). Offense sputtering (20 PPG), D middling (28 PPG allowed). Morale: Rebound hunt—1-4 ATS home.
Texas State Bobcats: Bobcats grinded 31-20 at ULM (Nov. 23), with McCloud’s clutch (300 total yds). Balanced (26 PPG), D opportunistic (11 TOs). Morale: Bowl push—4-1 SU when rushing 150+ yds.
Series History
Sun Belt rivals since 2022, Texas State edges recent. All-time: Texas State leads 2-1 (2024: 38-31 Texas State OT thriller). Jaguars won 2022 30-27. At Hancock Whitney: USA 1-0. Trends: Avg. 32-29 Texas State; overs in 2/3.
| Year | Winner | Score | Notes |
| 2024 | Texas State | 38-31 | OT nailbiter |
| 2023 | Texas State | 35-28 | Bobcat home win |
| 2022 | South Alabama | 30-27 | Jaguar upset |
Betting Trends
South Alabama: 4-7 ATS (36.4%); 3-2 ATS as 3.5+ home dogs. 6-5 O/U; overs in 4/6 home. 2-5 SU as underdog (28.6%). Vs. Texas State: 1-2 ATS.
Texas State: 6-5 ATS (54.5%); 2-3 ATS as 3.5+ road faves. 7-4 O/U; overs in 5/7 road. 3-3 SU as favorite (50%). Series: 2-1 SU/ATS.
Series Trends: Road team covers 2/3; overs 2/3 (avg. 61 pts). Dogs 2-1 ATS; Texas State 2-0 SU last 2. Advanced: FPI gives Texas State 60% win prob. Texas State top-50 offensive SP+; USA 100th overall.
Game Odds
South Alabama Jaguars 62.5
Texas State Bobcats – 9
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Friday, November 28, 2025
