The Conference USA slate closes with a must-win for pride as the New Mexico State Aggies (4-7, 2-5 CUSA) host the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-9, 1-6 CUSA) at Aggie Memorial Stadium. NMSU, under interim coach Tony Sanchez, aims to salvage a forgettable transition year with a Senior Day sendoff, building on a narrow 24-17 OT win over Missouri State last week. Middle Tennessee, Rick Stockstill’s rebuilding crew, enters desperate to snap an eight-game skid after a 31-28 road loss at Delaware, eyeing any momentum for 2026 recruits. The Aggies’ dual-threat offense (top-60 efficiency) tests MTSU’s banged-up secondary, while the Raiders’ ground control could exploit NMSU’s leaky front—expect a low-scoring, turnover-laden affair in the desert chill, with bowl irrelevance adding desperation.
Venue Location
The finale unfolds at Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces, New Mexico. This 28,853-seat Southwest gem, opened in 1974 and renovated in 2016, is NMSU’s home turf known for its sunny vibes and “Crimson Pride” chants. It’s a 1,100-mile trek from Murfreesboro, Tennessee, ensuring a pro-Aggies crowd for Senior Day—NMSU holds a 1-0 home edge in the series.
Kickoff: 3:00 p.m. ET (1:00 p.m. MT)
Broadcast: ESPN+ (primary), with streaming on ESPN app and Fubo. Radio: MTSU’s 97.9 The Score; NMSU’s 910 ESPN.
Weather Updates
Las Cruces in late November offers mild, dry desert conditions ideal for football. Forecast for game day: Sunny skies with a high of 66°F (19°C) and a low around 39°F (4°C). Winds: Calm at 6 mph from the west, with 0% chance of precipitation. Clear and balmy—artificial turf stays fast, favoring NMSU’s up-tempo style (top-60 pace) without humidity or chill to slow drives.
Injury Report
MTSU’s QB depth and secondary are hit hardest amid their skid, while NMSU reports lighter issues post-bye. Updates as of November 28.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders:
| Player | Position | Status | Injury Details | Impact |
| Nick Vattiato | QB | Questionable | Undisclosed (injured Nov. 8 vs. FIU; limited reps) | Starter (2,000+ yds, 12 TDs); if out, freshman backup drops efficiency—Raiders 0-5 without full QB mobility. |
| M. Byard | LB | Questionable | Undisclosed (post-Delaware) | Tackle leader (45 stops); strains run D (bottom-50, 180 yds allowed/game). |
Overall: Seven players limited/out per CUSA reports; O-line shuffled (35 sacks allowed, 120th nationally).
New Mexico State Aggies:
| Player | Position | Status | Injury Details | Impact |
| Jackson | Various | Out | Undisclosed (season-ending) | Depth piece; offense intact (top-60 scoring). |
| Ungar | Various | Out | Undisclosed (season-ending) | Rotational; front seven resilient. |
| Fife | QB | Probable | Undisclosed (missed one game) | Backup to starter; full practice—depth stable. |
Overall: Four limited; Sanchez noted “healthy rotations” after Missouri State.
Player Matchups
NMSU’s balance (top-60 SP+ offense) overwhelms MTSU’s youth (bottom-30 defense). Desert air adds ~3-5% scoring edge per models.
MTSU QB Nick Vattiato (questionable) vs. NMSU Secondary: Vattiato’s arm (58% comp., 12 TDs) targets shorts. Aggies’ DBs (top-60 efficiency, 10 INTs) swarm. Edge: NMSU—Aggies 4-1 forcing 2+ TOs; Raiders 0-6 with 3+ giveaways.
NMSU QB (starter TBD, Fife probable backup) vs. MTSU Pass Rush: Aggies’ passer (est. 2,200 yds, 15 TDs) exploits zones. Raiders’ front (bottom-60 sacks) pressures 18% dropbacks. Edge: NMSU starter—Aggies 3-2 exceeding 300 yds/game.
MTSU RB (committee) vs. NMSU Front Seven: Raiders’ backs (110 YPG) test LBs. Aggies middling (105th run D). Edge: Even—Raiders 2-3 under 100 rush yds.
NMSU WR (group) vs. MTSU CBs (M. Byard questionable): Targets (est. 1,200 yds) work YAC. Raiders leaky (bottom-30 pass D). Edge: NMSU—Aggies 4-2 when WRs hit 150+ yds.
Recent Team Forms
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: Stockstill’s Raiders collapsed 31-28 at Delaware (Nov. 23), scoring 18 PPG in skid amid QB injuries. Turnovers plague (14 given). Morale: Rebuild—0-6 CUSA road.
New Mexico State Aggies: Sanchez’s Aggies grinded a 24-17 OT W over Missouri State (Nov. 23), snapping skid—starter’s poise (250 yds) shone. Balanced but inconsistent (24 PPG). Morale: Senior push—2-3 ATS home.
Series History
CUSA foes since 2023, NMSU owns recent. All-time: NMSU leads 2-0 (2023: 35-21 NMSU; 2024: 21-17 NMSU). At Aggie Memorial: NMSU 1-0. Trends: Avg. 29-19 NMSU; unders in 1/2.
| Year | Winner | Score | Notes |
| 2024 | NMSU | 21-17 | Close home win |
| 2023 | NMSU | 35-21 | Offensive clinic |
Betting Trends
Middle Tennessee: 4-7 ATS (36.4%); 2-3 ATS as 3.5+ road dogs. 5-6 O/U; overs in 3/6 away. 1-9 SU as underdog (10%). Vs. NMSU: 0-2 ATS.
New Mexico State: 5-6 ATS (45.5%); 2-3 ATS as 3.5+ home faves. 6-5 O/U; overs in 4/7 home. 3-4 SU as favorite (42.9%). Series: 2-0 SU/ATS.
Series Trends: Favorite covers 2/2; overs 1/2 (avg. 48 pts). Home teams 1-0 SU; NMSU 3-2 ATS last 5 home. Advanced: FPI gives NMSU 62% win prob. NMSU top-60 offensive SP+; MTSU 125th overall.
Game Odds
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 53
New Mexico State Aggies – 3.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Friday, November 28, 2025
