The Florida State Seminoles (5-6 overall, 2-6 ACC) head south to battle the Florida Gators (3-8 overall, 2-6 SEC) in the annual Sunshine State Showdown, a heated in-state rivalry that closes out the regular season for both programs. This matchup at “The Swamp” carries extra weight for FSU, who are fighting to salvage bowl eligibility under head coach Mike Norvell amid a frustrating campaign marked by injuries and defensive lapses. The Gators, led by interim coach Billy Gonzales after a midseason shakeup, desperately need a signature win to build momentum for a potential coaching search and end a dismal year on a high note. Expect a gritty, emotional affair where bragging rights trump records—FSU aims to snap a potential three-game skid in the series, while Florida seeks to extend its home dominance.
Venue and Logistics
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (aka “The Swamp”), Gainesville, Florida (capacity: 88,548). This iconic SEC fortress, surrounded by gator-chomping fans and a notoriously humid, rowdy atmosphere, has been a house of horrors for visitors. Nicknamed for its swampy origins, the venue’s sunken design amplifies crowd noise to deafening levels (often exceeding 115 decibels), potentially rattling FSU’s young secondary. Travel from Tallahassee (about 170 miles) is a short drive, minimizing jet lag but maximizing rivalry tension—tailgating along University Avenue will be electric with SEC flair.
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET. The afternoon slot on ESPN2 allows for prime-time buildup, with pregame coverage starting at 3:30 p.m. ET. Kickoff under the Florida sun sets the stage for a classic SEC-ACC clash, broadcast nationally.
Weather Updates
Gainesville’s late-November forecast promises ideal football conditions for this afternoon tilt. Expect kickoff temperatures around 68°F, cooling to 55°F by the fourth quarter under mostly sunny skies with just a 1% chance of precipitation. Light winds from the northwest at 10 mph will keep it comfortable, with humidity dipping to 50%—a far cry from the steamy September games here. No rain delays anticipated, but the dry turf could favor FSU’s up-tempo offense if they protect the ball. Teams should monitor for any pop-up clouds, but overall, it’s a bettor’s dream: clear and crisp.
Injury Report
Injuries have ravaged both rosters this fall, forcing schematic adjustments and exposing depth issues. Florida State’s defense is particularly decimated in the secondary, while the Gators’ passing game takes another hit with key receivers sidelined.
Florida State Seminoles:
CB Ja’Bril Rawls (Lower Leg): Out for the season after a November 17 injury; a projected starter with 28 tackles and 2 INTs lost.
RB Samuel Singleton (Undisclosed): Out; the backup rusher (412 yards, 4 TDs) misses his third straight game, overloading lead back on carries.
TE Chase Loftin (Knee): Out; reliable chain-mover (22 catches, 245 yards) sidelined since mid-October.
CB Quindarrius Jones (Shoulder): Out; depth piece with 15 tackles.
CB Ricky Knight (Concussion): Out; rotational player in a already thin DB room.
DL Deamontae Diggs (Ankle): Questionable; 18 tackles, 3.5 sacks if he plays.
WR Jayvan Boggs (Foot): Doubtful; missed Wake Forest and beyond, impacting slot production (28 rec, 320 yds).
Other Notes: The Seminoles have dealt with 12 season-ending injuries this year, per coaching updates—expect more nickel packages to compensate.
Florida Gators:
WR Dallas Wilson (Knee): Out for the season; blue-chip freshman (15 catches, 210 yards) lost in November, gutting the aerial attack.
WR Eugene Wilson III (Shoulder): Out; emerging speedster (12 rec, 180 yds, 2 TDs) done after a midseason hit.
EDGE George Gumbs Jr. (Undisclosed): Out; pass-rush specialist (22 tackles, 5 sacks) returns to training but ruled out.
DL Michai Boireau (Lower Leg): Out; rotational lineman with 14 tackles.
DB Bryce Thornton (Hamstring): Game-time decision; starter (32 tackles, 1 INT) practiced limited this week—his availability is pivotal for man coverage.
DB Micheal Caraway (Knee): Out; backup safety with coverage duties.
DB Cormani McClain (ACL): Out for season; top recruit hampered all year.
Other Notes: Florida’s defense has been “plagued” by injuries, per reports, with 10+ players on IR—OL Caleb Banks is back from a brief absence, providing a spark.
These absences point to a run-heavy, mistake-minimizing game, with both QBs facing depleted secondaries.
Player Matchups to Watch
This rivalry often turns on explosive plays and turnovers, with both teams leaning on ground games amid injuries. Critical battles:
FSU QB Tommy Castellanos vs. UF Secondary (Led by S Devin Moore): Castellanos (2,145 pass yds, 62% comp, 14 TDs, 9 INTs; 456 rush yds) has been serviceable but turnover-prone lately (3 INTs in last two). Moore (48 tackles, 3 INTs) anchors a banged-up group—Thornton’s status could force mismatches if Castellanos targets underneath.
UF QB DJ Lagway vs. FSU Pass Rush (Led by DE Patrick Payton): The freshman phenom (1,892 pass yds, 58% comp, 12 TDs, 7 INTs) thrives at home but faces pressure from Payton (35 tackles, 7 sacks), who leads an FSU front ranking 45th nationally in sacks (25 total). Lagway’s mobility (312 rush yds) will test the edges.
FSU RB (Committee Led by Caziah Holmes) vs. UF Front Seven (Led by LB Jaden Jackson): With Singleton out, Holmes (645 rush yds, 6 TDs) carries the load against Jackson (55 tackles, 8 TFLs) and a Gators D allowing 142 rush ypg (top-60). Florida’s run stuff could force FSU into predictable passes.
UF WR Montrell Johnson Jr. vs. FSU CB Azareye’h Thomas: Johnson (stepping up with WRs out; 28 rec, 385 yds) faces Thomas (3 INTs, 42 tackles), a physical cover corner vulnerable to YAC. If Thornton plays, it flips to speed vs. size.
Matchups favor the home team’s familiarity, but FSU’s front could dictate tempo if they avoid penalties.
Team Recent Forms
Florida State Seminoles: A rollercoaster year after 2024’s playoff heartbreak, with early non-con wins masking ACC woes. Started 3-0 (W 31-17 vs. Alabama, W 77-3 vs. ETSU, W 66-10 vs. Kent State) before a 2-6 conference slide. Key results: L 38-46 (2OT) at Virginia, W 34-14 vs. Virginia Tech, L 24-10 at Clemson, L vs. NC State (details pending, but dropped to 5-6). Recent Form (Last 5): 1-4, averaging 22.6 ppg scored and 30.2 allowed—offense sputtering (bottom-70 in scoring at 24.1 ppg overall), defense leaky against the run.
Florida Gators: A nightmare season under duress, with Napier fired midyear and Gonzales stabilizing the ship minimally. Opened with W 55-0 vs. LIU but stumbled hard (L 16-18 vs. USF, L 10-28 at LSU). Wins: vs. Vanderbilt, UMass; losses pile up in SEC play. Key: L 20-24 vs. Georgia, L 7-38 at Kentucky, L vs. Tennessee (Nov 22). Recent Form (Last 5): 0-5, averaging 14.8 ppg scored and 32.4 allowed—worst in SEC scoring offense (17.2 ppg), defense middling at 28.6 ppg allowed.
FSU’s slight edge in talent shines through records, but Florida’s home desperation could flip the script.
Series History
Dating to 1958, this is the 71st meeting in one of college football’s fiercest rivalries, with Florida holding a commanding 37-28-2 edge overall. The Gators dominated early (20-3 from 1958-1993), but FSU surged in the 1990s-2010s, winning 7 of 10 from 2010-2019. Recent: Florida has won the last two (2023: 24-15; 2024: details pending, but streak L1 for FSU). At The Swamp: Florida 22-13-1 all-time. Average score: Florida 24.8, FSU 20.6. Last eight: 5 overs, with rivalry games averaging 48.2 total points—expect fireworks despite records.
Betting Trends
Florida State: 4-7 ATS overall (36.4%), but 3-2 ATS as road dogs under 3 points. Public 55% on FSU ML (contrarian value), overs in 6 of 11 (54.5%). Rivalry road: 2-3 ATS last 5.
Florida: 5-6 ATS (45.5%), 4-2 ATS at home as slight favorites. 52.4% implied win prob on ML. Unders in 7 of last 10 home games (70%), but rivalry overs in 4 of 6. Sharp action on under (60% handle), public leaning over (58%).
Head-to-Head: Florida 5-3 ATS last 8; totals push over in 62.5% of meetings.
Trends scream low-scoring grinder, with FSU’s dog bark undervalued in neutral-site vibes.
Game Odds
Florida State Seminoles 48.5
Florida Gators PK
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Friday, November 28, 2025
