Kickoff: 7:30 PM ET
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Broadcast: ABC
Weather Forecast
Temperature: ~84°F (29°C) at kickoff
Conditions: Humid, partly cloudy, light winds (6–8 mph)
Impact: Classic South Florida night game conditions—heat and humidity could test depth, especially for Florida’s defense.
Injury Report
Florida Gators (SEC):
QB DJ Lagway (true freshman starter) coming off a rough outing vs. LSU (5 INTs). Healthy but under pressure to rebound.
RB Montrell Johnson Jr. (questionable, minor ankle tweak).
WR corps intact, led by Eugene Wilson III.
Defense healthy, anchored by LB Scooby Williams.
#5 Miami Hurricanes (ACC):
QB Carson Beck (Georgia transfer) thriving, completing 78% of passes with 7 TDs, 2 INTs through three games.
RB Mark Fletcher Jr. (hamstring) probable.
WR Xavier Restrepo and Colbie Young both healthy and producing.
Defense at full strength, led by LB Francisco Mauigoa.
Key Player Matchups
QB DJ Lagway (Florida) vs. Miami Secondary
Lagway’s turnovers have been costly; Miami’s defense ranks top-25 nationally in pass efficiency allowed.
WR Eugene Wilson III (Florida) vs. CB Daryl Porter Jr. (Miami)
Wilson is Florida’s most dynamic playmaker; Porter and the Canes’ corners must contain him.
QB Carson Beck (Miami) vs. Florida Pass Rush
Beck has been nearly flawless; Florida’s front seven must generate pressure to disrupt his rhythm.
RB Mark Fletcher Jr. (Miami) vs. Florida Linebackers
Fletcher’s power running could wear down Florida’s defense in humid conditions.
Recent Team Form
Florida Gators (1–2)
8/30/25: W 31–14 vs. Samford
9/6/25: L 24–17 vs. USF
9/13/25: L 20–10 @ LSU
Trend: Defense solid (allowing just 13 PPG), but offense sputtering with turnovers and inconsistency.
#5 Miami Hurricanes (3–0)
8/30/25: W 27–24 vs. Notre Dame
9/6/25: W 49–12 vs. USF
9/13/25: W 38–14 vs. Florida A&M
Trend: Offense ranked #1 in SP+ nationally, averaging 41 PPG; defense improving under new DC Corey Hetherman.
Series History
All-time: Florida leads 29–27.
Last meeting: 2019, Florida won 24–20 in Orlando.
Miami won 7 of the previous 8 meetings before that.
This is the first matchup in Miami since 2013 (Miami won 21–16).
Betting Trends
Florida:
10–3 ATS in last 13 games.
4–17 SU in last 21 road games.
0–5 ATS in last 5 vs. Miami.
Miami:
2–4 ATS in last 6 as favorite.
Overs hit in 4 of last 5 games.
8–16 ATS in last 24 home games.
Head-to-Head:
Miami 6–2 SU in last 8 vs. Florida.
Florida last won in 2019.
Historical Betting Results
Florida: Strong ATS overall recently, but poor on the road and against Miami specifically.
Miami: Inconsistent ATS at home, but offense has been covering large spreads in 2025.
Rivalry Trend: Games often close and defensive, but Miami’s 2025 offense could break that mold.
Game Odds
Florida Gators 51
Miami Hurricanes – 7.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Friday, September 19, 2025
