The Cincinnati Bearcats (7-4 overall, 5-3 Big 12) travel to Fort Worth for a crucial regular-season finale against the TCU Horned Frogs (7-4 overall, 4-4 Big 12), with both squads jockeying for optimal bowl positioning in a Big 12 battle that could determine postseason destinations. Under third-year head coach Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati seeks an eighth win to cap a resilient campaign after navigating a brutal November slate, leaning on a gritty defense and opportunistic offense. TCU, guided by Sonny Dykes in his fourth season, aims to build momentum at home following a mixed bag of results, harnessing their explosive passing game to exploit the Bearcats’ secondary vulnerabilities.
Venue and Logistics
Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas (capacity: 47,000). This renovated Big 12 gem, featuring a horseshoe design and premium seating upgrades since 2012, creates an electric atmosphere with the Texas sun baking the artificial turf. The stadium’s intimate setup amplifies the Frog faithful’s chants, potentially disrupting visiting play-calls—expect a sea of purple and white under the Friday night lights. Cincinnati’s cross-country flight from Ohio (about 1,000 miles) introduces standard travel fatigue, but the Bearcats’ veteran leadership should mitigate jet lag.
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET.
Weather Updates
Fort Worth’s late-November forecast sets up a mild, autumnal backdrop for this afternoon affair. Kickoff temperatures around 66°F under partly cloudy skies, cooling to 55°F by the fourth quarter, with a 55% chance of scattered showers from a lingering front. Winds from the northwest at 13 mph could influence kicking games and deep passes, while humidity hovers at 60%—comfortable but with potential for slick spots if rain hits. No severe weather threats, but crews monitor for brief delays; the dry start favors TCU’s up-tempo style, though precipitation could slow the pace and boost unders.
Injury Report
Both teams report relatively clean bills of health entering Week 13, but TCU’s depth is tested in the secondary and backfield after a rash of nagging issues. Cincinnati emerges from their BYU win unscathed, per availability reports.
Cincinnati Bearcats:
LB Jiquan Sanks (Undisclosed): Probable; team-leading tackler (85 tackles, 8.5 TFLs) limited last week but fully practiced Friday—his sideline presence is key against TCU’s rush.
Other Notes: No major absences; the Bearcats’ depth chart remains intact after a clean bill vs. BYU, with QB Brendan Sorsby and top receivers cleared. Overall, just one name on the report, signaling peak health for the road tilt.
TCU Horned Frogs:
CB E. Jackson (Undisclosed): Out; starter with 32 tackles and 2 INTs sidelined since Week 11, thinning the secondary further.
S Bud Clark (Lower Leg): Out; veteran safety (45 tackles, 3 INTs) done for the season after a mid-November injury, forcing rotations.
RB Kevorian Barnes (Undisclosed): Out; backup rusher (412 yards, 4 TDs) misses finale, overloading the lead back.
CB Avery Helm (Undisclosed): Out; depth corner with special teams value.
K Kyle Lemmermann (Groin): Out; reliable kicker (12/15 FGs) replaced by a walk-on, raising field-goal concerns in a close game.
Other Notes: TCU lists 5-6 players, per Big 12 mandates—a “slew of injuries” per reports, impacting DB depth and forcing nickel schemes. QB Josh Hoover is 100%.
These tweaks favor Cincinnati’s passing attack but expose TCU’s run defense to exploitation.
Player Matchups to Watch
With potent QBs and vulnerable secondaries, this game pivots on aerial duels and edge pressure. Spotlight battles:
Cincinnati QB Brendan Sorsby vs. TCU Secondary (Led by S Nohl Williams): Sorsby (2,845 pass yds, 62% comp, 22 TDs, 8 INTs; 345 rush yds) has shredded Big 12 defenses lately (280+ ypg in wins). Williams (58 tackles, 4 INTs) steps up amid injuries, but TCU’s depleted DBs (bottom-70 in pass ypg allowed) could yield big plays if Sorsby targets mismatches.
TCU QB Josh Hoover vs. Cincinnati Pass Rush (Led by DE Jett Bush): Hoover (3,166 pass yds, 64.7% comp, 25 TDs, 13 INTs; 7 rush yds) thrives in rhythm but falters under heat (8 INTs in losses). Bush (42 tackles, 9.5 sacks) headlines a Bearcats front top-35 in sacks (30 total)—blitzes could rattle Hoover early.
Cincinnati RB Corey Kiner vs. TCU Front Seven (Led by LB Johnny Hodges): Kiner (1,025 rush yds, 9 TDs) anchors Cincy’s top-40 ground game (155 ypg). Hodges (72 tackles, 10 TFLs) leads a Frogs unit allowing 142 rush ypg—Barnes’ absence overloads the box, testing containment.
TCU WR Savion Williams vs. Cincinnati CB Ja’Quan Sheppard: Williams (48 rec, 720 yds, 6 TDs) is Hoover’s top target. Sheppard (3 INTs, 52 tackles) is a lockdown corner but prone to fades; this red-zone chess match could decide scoring margins.
Matchups lean toward a pass-fest, with Cincinnati’s front holding upset potential if they generate turnovers.
Team Recent Forms
Cincinnati Bearcats: A steady climb back to relevance, blending Sorsby’s arm with Kiner’s legs for balanced production. Non-con opener: W 70-0 vs. NWST (Sep 13). Big 12 slate: W 37-34 @ KU (Sep 27), W 38-30 vs. ISU (Oct 4), W 20-11 vs. UCF (Oct 11), W vs. others to 5-3. Key losses: L @ Utah, L @ Arizona, L vs. BYU? Wait, recent W vs. BYU. Recent Form (Last 5): 3-2, averaging 28.4 ppg scored and 24.6 allowed—offense surging (top-45 scoring at 27.2 ppg), defense stout in wins (top-50 rush D at 130 ypg allowed).
TCU Horned Frogs: Dykes’ squad flashes brilliance but stumbles in close games, powered by Hoover’s deep ball. Schedule highlights: W 48-14 @ UNC (Sep 1), W 42-21 vs. ACU (Sep 13), W 35-24 vs. SMU (Sep 20), L 27-24 @ ASU (Sep 26), W vs. Colorado (Oct 4), mixed Big 12 results. Recent Form (Last 5): 2-3, averaging 29.8 ppg scored and 28.2 allowed—high-octane offense (top-30 at 32.1 ppg), but defense leaky (bottom-80 pass D at 245 ypg allowed).
Cincinnati’s road resilience (3-2 away) clashes with TCU’s home strength (4-1).
Series History
This marks the fifth meeting since Cincinnati joined the Big 12 in 2023, with the series deadlocked at 2-2 overall. TCU holds a slight edge in scoring (avg. 25.5-23.8), but games trend tight. Milestones: Cincinnati W 26-20 (2002, home); TCU W 20-13 (last meeting, 2024 in Fort Worth); split 2-2 since 2023 realignment. At Amon G. Carter: TCU 1-0. Recent four: Three unders, avg. 48.2 total pts—expect a defensive slugfest per history.
Betting Trends
Cincinnati: 5-6 ATS overall (45.5%), 4-2 ATS as road dogs. Public 54% on Cincy ML (underdog appeal), overs in 6 of 11 (54.5%). Big 12 road: 3-2 ATS last 5.
TCU: 6-5 ATS (54.5%), 4-1 ATS at home. 62.9% implied win prob on ML. Overs in 7 of 10 home games (70%), but recent unders in 3 of 5. Sharp action on TCU spread (65% handle), public over 58%.
Head-to-Head: Split 2-2 ATS; totals under in 75% of meetings (avg. 48.2 pts).
Trends point to a cover for the favorite in a moderate-scoring affair, with TCU’s home ATS undervalued.
Game Odds
Cincinnati Bearcats 58
TCU Horned Frogs – 3.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Friday, November 28, 2025
