Venue & Game Details
Kickoff Time: 4:15 PM ET / 3:15 PM CT
Venue: Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field, Starkville, Mississippi
Capacity: ~61,000
Broadcast: SEC Network
Weather Forecast (Starkville, MS)
Kickoff Temperature: ~81°F (27°C)
Conditions: Partly sunny, humid
Wind: 6–10 mph from the south
Precipitation: ~20% chance of scattered showers
Impact: Warm, sticky conditions typical of late September in the Deep South; stamina and depth could be factors.
Injury Report
Tennessee Volunteers:
QB Joey Aguilar – healthy, 1,124 yards, 12 TDs, 3 INTs.
RB Star Thomas – healthy, 272 yards, 4 TDs.
WR Chris Brazzell II – healthy, 426 yards, 6 TDs.
CB Kamal Hadden – questionable (ankle).
Mississippi State Bulldogs:
QB Blake Shapen – healthy, 882 yards, 7 TDs, 2 INTs.
RB Da’Marion Bothwell – healthy, 271 yards, 4 TDs.
WR Brenen Thompson – healthy, 291 yards, 3 TDs.
LB John Lewis – questionable (shoulder).
Key Player Matchups
Joey Aguilar (Tennessee QB) vs. Bulldogs Secondary
Aguilar is averaging 281 ypg with 12 TDs.
Mississippi State’s pass defense ranks 14th nationally (129 ypg allowed).
Blake Shapen (MSU QB) vs. Tennessee Pass Defense
Shapen has been efficient but faces a Vols defense ranked 126th in pass yards allowed (279 ypg).
Star Thomas (Tennessee RB) vs. Bulldogs Front Seven
Thomas averaging 6.5 ypc.
MSU allows 136.5 rushing ypg (68th nationally).
Brennen Thompson (MSU WR) vs. Vols Corners
Thompson is Shapen’s top target.
Tennessee’s secondary has struggled against explosive plays.
Recent Team Form
Tennessee Volunteers (3–1)
W 56–24 vs. UAB (Week 4)
L 27–41 vs. Georgia (Week 3)
W 42–14 vs. Kent State (Week 2)
W 38–10 vs. Chattanooga (Week 1)
Strengths: High-powered offense (554 ypg, 4th nationally).
Weaknesses: Pass defense (279 ypg allowed).
Mississippi State Bulldogs (4–0)
W 38–10 vs. Northern Illinois (Week 4)
W 31–17 vs. Arizona State (Week 3)
W 28–14 vs. Memphis (Week 2)
W 45–7 vs. Louisiana Tech (Week 1)
Strengths: Balanced offense (444 ypg, 39.8 ppg).
Weaknesses: Penalties (89 ypg, 134th nationally).
Conference vs. Conference
Both are SEC programs.
Tennessee: SEC East Mississippi State: SEC West.
This is a cross-divisional SEC matchup with Top 25 implications.
Series History
All-time series: Tennessee leads 29–16–1.
Last meeting: Tennessee won 20–10 in 2019.
Trend: Volunteers have won 8 of the last 9 meetings, dating back to the 1998 SEC Championship.
Betting Trends
Tennessee Volunteers:
2–2 ATS in 2025.
5–1 ATS in last 6 SEC games.
3 of last 4 games have gone Over.
Mississippi State Bulldogs:
3–1 ATS in 2025.
4–1 ATS in last 5 home games.
5 of last 7 games have gone Under.
Historical Betting Results
2019: Tennessee -6.5 covered in 20–10 win (Under cashed).
2012: Mississippi State -3 covered in 41–31 win (Over cashed).
2008: Tennessee +7 covered in 34–3 win (Under cashed).
Game Odds
Tennessee Volunteers – 7.5
Mississippi State Bulldogs 63
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Friday, September 26, 2025
