The 2025 NCAA Division III Football Playoffs reach the semifinals with a clash between two of the nation’s most dominant programs: the undefeated North Central Cardinals (13-0) from the College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin (CCIW) and the surging John Carroll Blue Streaks (12-1) from the North Coast Athletic Conference (NCAC). This marks the first-ever meeting between these two historic DIII powers, with the winner advancing to the Stagg Bowl national championship on January 5, 2026, at Shell Energy Stadium in Houston, Texas.
North Central, the defending national champions, enter as heavy favorites in a matchup that pits offensive firepower against opportunistic defense. The Cardinals boast the nation’s top-scoring offense (51.3 points per game), while the Blue Streaks have ridden a wave of playoff upsets, including a stunning double-overtime victory over perennial powerhouse Mount Union.
Venue and Logistics
Location: Benedetti-Wehrli Stadium, North Central College, Naperville, Illinois (a suburb 30 miles west of Chicago). Capacity: Approximately 5,500. The stadium features artificial turf and is known for its intimate, raucous atmosphere during playoff games, with North Central selling out their last five home postseason contests.
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. CT / 4:30 p.m. ET (broadcast on ESPN+)
Weather Forecast: Expect chilly late-December conditions in Naperville, with highs around 32°F and lows dipping to 25°F by kickoff. Partly cloudy skies with a 40% chance of light flurries and winds from the northwest at 10-15 mph. These conditions could favor North Central’s ground-heavy attack, as the Cardinals are 7-0 in games with temperatures below 40°F this season. No significant precipitation is expected, but the wind may impact deep passing plays for both teams.
Injury Report
Both teams enter the semifinal relatively healthy after navigating grueling quarterfinals, but depth will be tested in the cold.
North Central Cardinals:
Out: None reported. The team is at full strength following a clean bill of health in their 35-21 quarterfinal win over Bethel.
Questionable: Sophomore RB Maverick Ohle (defensive lineman, 27 tackles, 2 sacks) – missed one regular-season game with a minor ankle sprain but returned in the playoffs with 3 tackles vs. Bethel. Expected to play.
Probable: Senior WR Thomas Skokna (nation-leading 23 TD receptions) – managed a shoulder tweak in Week 12 but has practiced fully all week. No major setbacks from the Bethel game, where the Cardinals’ offensive line allowed just one sack.
John Carroll Blue Streaks:
Out: Freshman OL (unnamed reserve) – season-ending knee injury from the Mount Union game; not a starter.
Questionable: Senior CB Dylan Crasi (5 INTs, including 2 vs. Berry) – targeting ejection in the third round vs. Mount Union sidelined him for the first half vs. Berry, but he returned with 3 takeaways. Cleared to start.
Probable: QB Nick Semptimphelter (2,500+ passing yards, 25 TDs) – minor hand contusion from the Berry fumble recovery but threw for 180 yards in that game. The Blue Streaks’ defense, which forced 7 turnovers vs. Berry, showed no rust despite the minor bumps.
Key Player Matchups
This semifinal boils down to North Central’s explosive passing game against John Carroll’s turnover-forcing secondary, and the Blue Streaks’ balanced rush attack vs. the Cardinals’ stout front seven.
North Central QB Garret Wilson vs. John Carroll CB Dylan Crasi
Wilson (212.0 passer rating, 39 TD passes, 3,200+ yards) is the engine of the nation’s No. 1 offense, but Crasi (team-high 5 INTs, including a pick-six potential in the Berry game) has thrived in zone coverage, allowing just 45% completion rate when targeted. If Crasi shadows Wilson’s top target, Skokna (144 points scored, 23 TDs), it could force Wilson into checkdowns—where North Central is only 85% efficient.
John Carroll RB Nemo Jenkins vs. North Central LB JP Sullivan
Jenkins (769 rushing yards, 7 TDs, 6.9 YPC) powers the Blue Streaks’ ground game, but Sullivan (CCIW Defensive POY, 19.5 TFLs, 6.5 sacks) leads a front that ranks No. 1 nationally in points allowed (8.3 PPG). Sullivan has stuffed 10+ rushers for losses in the playoffs; if he disrupts Jenkins’ 90-yard long run potential, John Carroll’s offense (39.8 PPG) could stall early.
North Central WR Thomas Skokna vs. John Carroll S Mason Rus
Skokna (nation-leading 23 TD catches, 1,200+ yards) is a Gagliardi Trophy finalist, but Rus (team-leading 6 tackles/game, 1 sack) anchors a secondary that held Berry to 13 points despite 7 turnovers forced. Rus’s blitz packages (2 sacks in playoffs) could pressure Skokna at the line, where he’s dropped just 2 passes all season.
Recent Team Forms
North Central Cardinals (13-0, 9-0 CCIW): The Cardinals are riding a 28-game win streak dating back to 2023, capped by playoff dominance.
Their last five games:
| Date | Opponent | Result | Key Stats |
| Dec 13 | Bethel (Qtrfinal) | W 35-21 | 312 rush yds, 0 turnovers |
| Dec 6 | Wis-La Crosse | W 35-27 | Pick-six seals halftime lead |
| Nov 15 | Ill. Wesleyan | W 24-7 | Defense holds to 7 pts |
| Nov 8 | Elmhurst | W 58-0 | 400+ total yds |
| Nov 1 | Carroll (WI) | W 64-7 | Wilson: 4 TD passes |
North Central’s offense is unstoppable (51.3 PPG, 6.8 YPC rushing), but their red-zone defense (.500 stop rate) was tested vs. Bethel.
John Carroll Blue Streaks (12-1, 8-0 NCAC): After an early-season stumble, the Blue Streaks have won 11 straight, including three playoff thrillers.
Their last five:
| Date | Opponent | Result | Key Stats |
| Dec 13 | at Berry (Qtrfinal) | W 21-13 | 7 forced turnovers, 0 sacks allowed |
| Dec 6 | at Mount Union | W 10-7 (2OT) | Defense: 3 INTs, held to 7 pts |
| Nov 29 | Randolph-Macon | W 35-6 | Semptimphelter: 31/33, 257 yds |
| Nov 15 | at Denison | W 48-21 | Jenkins: 100+ rush yds |
| Nov 8 | Otterbein | W 55-17 | 448 total yds |
John Carroll’s defense (13.4 PPG allowed) shines in chaos, forcing 15 turnovers in the playoffs, but their road woes (4-1 away) face a tough test.
Conference vs. Conference: CCIW vs. NCAC
The CCIW (North Central’s home) is a DIII juggernaut, with 5 national titles since 2019 and a 22-2 non-conference record in 2025. They’ve dominated OAC/NCAC foes historically, going 15-3 since 2010 in crossovers, thanks to superior athleticism and coaching (North Central’s Kurt Hester is 84-3 since 2019).
The NCAC (John Carroll’s conference, formerly OAC-aligned) is gritty but less proven nationally, with just 2 titles ever and a 10-12 playoff record. However, the Blue Streaks’ 8-0 league mark mirrors the CCIW’s balance, and NCAC teams are 6-4 vs. CCIW in the last decade when road underdogs.
Series History
This is the first all-time meeting between North Central and John Carroll—no prior regular-season or playoff clashes. Both programs boast rich histories: North Central with 3 titles (2019, 2022, 2024) and John Carroll with 12 conference crowns but zero national rings. Expect fireworks in a neutral-site feel despite the home-field edge for the Cardinals.
Betting Trends
Total: North Central games hit under in 7 of 13, John Carroll in 6 of 13 road/neutral). North Central is 11-2 ATS as favorites >5 points (88%), covering in all 5 home playoffs. John Carroll is 7-1 ATS as underdogs (88%), winning outright in 4 of 5. Public money (65%) on North Central; sharps fading with Blue Streaks +6.5 (value on road dogs in DIII semis: 12-5 ATS last 5 years).
Historical Betting Results (DIII Semifinals/Stagg Bowl): Favorites cover 68% in semis (17-8 ATS last 25), but underdogs win 25% outright. Totals go OVER in 55% of cold-weather semis (Dec/Jan), but unders hit 70% when defenses force >3 turnovers (fits John Carroll’s MO). Stagg Bowl trends: Home teams (like North Central here) 14-6 SU since 2010; overs in 60% of title games.
Game Odds
North Central (IL) Cardinals – 6.5
John Carroll Blue Streaks 48.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Friday, December 19, 2025
