Game Overview
The No. 1-ranked Harding Bison (12-0) host the UT Permian Basin Falcons (10-2) in a gripping NCAA Division II quarterfinal matchup on Saturday, December 6, 2025, as part of Super Region Four. This clash pits Harding’s relentless ground-and-pound dynasty—fresh off their 2023 national title and another undefeated regular season—against the Falcons’ high-flying, upset-fueled playoff run, marked by gritty OT survival and statement wins over top-10 foes. The Bison, who boast the nation’s top rushing attack (430+ YPG), enter as prohibitive favorites with home-field fortress status, while UTPB’s explosive offense (38+ PPG) and road warrior mentality make them a live underdog chasing program history. The winner punches a semifinal ticket, potentially setting up a rematch with Ferris State. Expect a run-heavy chess match at First Security Stadium, where Harding’s defensive front could neutralize UTPB’s speed, but the Falcons’ big-play ability keeps it from being a blowout—dynasty defense meets desert storm in a DII classic.
Venue and Location
The showdown takes place at First Security Stadium on the Harding University campus in Searcy, Arkansas. Tucked in the rolling Ozark foothills of White County, roughly 50 miles northeast of Little Rock and 30 miles west of Batesville, the 6,500-seat facility—renovated in 2021 with upgraded lighting and suites—has become a playoff nightmare for visitors, where the Bison are 10-1 in postseason games and have outscored opponents 350-100 this year. Known for its intimate, echoing design and “Bison Pride” tailgates fueled by alumni barbecues, the stadium’s grass surface (with turf sidelines) favors Harding’s punishing run game. Gates open two hours early; ample parking in campus fields, with shuttles from downtown Searcy. Nearest airport: Bill and Hillary Clinton National (50 miles southwest).
Kickoff: 2:00 p.m. CT (3:00 p.m. ET; aligned for ESPN+ regional broadcast)
This mid-afternoon slot optimizes Central Time viewing and allows for pre-game pageantry amid Arkansas’ crisp December backdrop.
Weather Forecast
Searcy’s early December weather often mixes chill with southern mildness, and the outlook for game day is partly cloudy with temperatures starting at 50°F (10°C) at kickoff, dipping to 42°F (6°C) by the fourth quarter. Northerly winds at 6-10 mph may swirl leaves on the field and challenge deep kicks, while 70% humidity and a 25% chance of light drizzle in the evening could add slipperiness to the grass—potentially favoring Harding’s ball-control style over UTPB’s vertical shots. No severe weather risks; the surface should hold firm, but layers and thermals recommended for fans. A classic fall-to-winter transition, primed for a defensive tilt.
Injury Report
Both squads enter healthy after physical second-round wins, with no season-enders reported. Updates as of December 1:
Harding Bison:
Out: None; the Bison’s depth (four-deep at RB) has masked minor dings all postseason.
Questionable: Backup QB Parker McDonald (elbow from Nov. 29 vs. Pittsburg St.) limited but not needed behind starter Caden Jones.
Probable: RB Braden Jay (shoulder tweak from regular season) and LB Gunner Bradford (ankle) full practice reps; DL Chris Allen (knee) cleared after imaging.
UT Permian Basin Falcons:
Out: Reserve OL Jacob Ruiz (foot surgery from Week 9) sidelined; no starter impact.
Questionable: WR Devin Williams (hamstring pull from OT win vs. Western Colorado) game-time decision; he’s a deep threat (8 TDs) but backups stepped up.
Probable: QB Kaleb Barkley (concussion cleared) and RB Jaylon Baldon (wrist) 100%; secondary healthy post-recovery.
Harding’s 98% availability gives them a roster edge; UTPB at 95%, with Williams’ status key for explosiveness.
Key Player Matchups
These head-to-heads will test willpower and scheme:
Harding QB Caden Jones vs. UTPB Pass Rush (Led by DE Jaden Thompson): Jones (1,800 pass yds, 20 TDs; 600 rush yds) orchestrates play-action mastery; Thompson (10 sacks) leads a front allowing 1.5 sacks/game, but Harding’s O-line (No. 2 in DII sack protection) should buy time for bootlegs.
UTPB RB Jaylon Baldon vs. Harding Front Seven (LB Gunner Bradford & DT Chris Allen): Baldon (1,200 rush yds, 15 TDs) powers a 180 YPG attack, but Harding’s D (No. 1 vs. rush, 85 YPG allowed) feasts on backs—Bradford (95 tackles) and Allen (8 TFLs) could cap him under 100 yards.
Harding RB Braden Jay vs. UTPB LB Corps (Led by MLB Tyler King): Jay (1,400 rush yds, 18 TDs) anchors the nation’s top ground game; King’s sideline-to-sideline speed (110 tackles) disrupts lanes, but UTPB’s run D (top-20, 110 YPG) faces its sternest test.
UTPB QB Kaleb Barkley vs. Harding Secondary (CB Marcus Murphy): Barkley (2,500 pass yds, 25 TDs) slings it deep; Murphy’s ball-hawking (5 INTs) heads a unit with 15 picks—expect traps for turnovers in zone coverage.
Harding’s physicality tips the scales, but UTPB’s athleticism could spark counters.
Recent Team Forms
Harding’s machine-like precision meets UTPB’s resilient chaos in peak postseason strides.
Harding Bison: Flawless from wire-to-wire, the Bison capped an 11-0 regular season with playoff romps. Last five: W 37-21 vs. Pittsburg St. (Nov. 29, second round—rushed for 430 yds), W 38-16 vs. Northwest Mo. St. (Nov. 22, first round), W 47-13 vs. Arkansas Tech (GAC finale), W 65-0 vs. East Central (regular), W 52-7 vs. Ouachita Baptist (semis). Offense: 42.5 PPG (569 rush yds vs. Tech); Defense: 12.8 PPG allowed (four shutouts). Untouched since 2023 title.
UT Permian Basin Falcons: Bounced back from early LSC stumbles (losses to Angelo St., Midwestern St.) with seven straight wins into playoffs. Last five: W 21-15 (OT) vs. Western Colorado (Nov. 29, second round—clutch FG sealed survival), W 28-24 vs. CSU Pueblo (Nov. 22, first round), W 35-21 vs. Texas A&M-Kingsville (LSC semis), W 42-28 vs. Eastern N.M. (regular), W 31-27 vs. Angelo St. (rematch). Offense: 38.2 PPG; Defense: 20.5 PPG lately (held foes under 250 yds in playoffs).
Harding’s dominance edges UTPB’s momentum—watch the Falcons’ late-game fire.
Conference vs. Conference (GAC vs. LSC)
The Great American Conference (GAC) and Lone Star Conference (LSC) are DII’s heartland heavyweights, with the GAC’s run-first grit clashing against the LSC’s spread-option flair. The GAC, formed in 2011 from LSC defectors (e.g., Harding joined from NAIA), spans Arkansas/Oklahoma with nine members and emphasizes physicality—yielding three national titles (Harding 2023; Henderson St. 1986, 1993 pre-GAC) and 18 playoff berths since inception. Its recruiting from Bible Belt pipelines prioritizes depth and clock control.
The LSC, dating to 1931 with 11 core members (TX/NM/OK) plus affiliates, is a sprawling giant producing five titles (Angelo St. 1978; Texas A&M-Commerce 2017) and 25 playoff teams since 2010; known for high-scoring shootouts (e.g., 2025’s 161 combined pts in ACU-West Texas A&M). Head-to-head since 2012: LSC leads 25-18 (58% win rate), including bowl clashes like the 2021 Live United (GAC’s Okla. Baptist vs. LSC’s Eastern N.M.). GAC’s two 2025 playoff squads (Harding auto-bid) match LSC’s (UTPB at-large), but GAC defenses (top-10 nationally) counter LSC offenses. This tests GAC hammer vs. LSC scalpel.
Team Records
| Team | Overall Record | Conference Record | Playoff Record (2025) | National Rank |
| Harding Bison | 12-0 | 11-0 (GAC Champs) | 2-0 | No. 1 |
| UT Permian Basin Falcons | 10-2 | 7-2 (LSC Tournament) | 2-0 | No. 12 |
Harding’s +1,100 point differential crushes; UTPB’s losses averaged 7 pts, honing their edge.
Series History
This is the first-ever football meeting between Harding and UT Permian Basin. The Bison hold a 6-2 all-time record vs. LSC opponents (e.g., 35-28 over Texas A&M-Commerce in 2023 playoffs), while UTPB is 3-4 vs. GAC foes (e.g., 2021 Heritage Bowl loss to Central Mo.). Harding’s playoff ledger: 12-4 (one title); UTPB’s: 3-2 (program’s deepest run). No baggage, all stakes.
Betting Trends
Harding: 9-3 ATS (75%), covering 7 straight home games and both playoff wins. Public 75% on Bison; 8 of 12 unders, reflecting defensive clamps.
UTPB: 8-4 ATS (67%), 5-2 as road dogs. Sharps 52% on Falcons +18.5 for cover value; overs in 9 of 10 road games.
Neutral: GAC vs. LSC 6-4 to under since 2015; DII quarterfinal favorites cover 72%.
Historical Betting Results (DII Quarterfinals Context)
In the last 10 DII quarterfinals (2015-2024), No. 1 seeds like Harding are 10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS (avg. win 22 pts). Home teams: 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS. Underdogs (like UTPB) 2-8 SU but 6-4 ATS, thriving in covers (e.g., 2023’s Angelo St. +16.5 upset). Totals: 7-3 under (avg. 48 pts), aided by cold fronts and run focus. GAC teams: 5-3 SU in quarters; LSC: 4-4 SU but 6-2 ATS as dogs.
Final Score Prediction: Harding 35, UT Permian Basin 17
Game Odds
Harding Bison – 18.5
UT Permian Basin Falcons 52.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Friday, December 5, 2025
