The 2025 Cheez-It Citrus Bowl features a rematch between the No. 18 Michigan Wolverines (9-3) and the No. 13 Texas Longhorns (9-3), just over a year after their regular-season clash. This neutral-site game pits Michigan’s resilient defense and emerging offense against a Texas team dealing with significant roster attrition but still boasting talent under Steve Sarkisian. Michigan, fresh off a chaotic coaching change with Sherrone Moore fired, enters under interim leadership, while Texas looks to end a disappointing non-playoff season on a high note. With opt-outs heavily impacting Texas, this could be closer than their prior meetings, offering Michigan a shot at redemption.
Venue Location
The game will be held at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida. This 65,000-seat venue, formerly the Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium, has hosted the Citrus Bowl since 1947 and provides a festive, open-air atmosphere with modern upgrades. Orlando’s central location draws fans from both programs, though Texas’ larger alumni base in the South may create a slight edge in crowd support.
Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET (2:00 p.m. CT). The game will be broadcast on ABC.
Weather Forecast
Orlando’s forecast for December 31, 2025, predicts mild and comfortable conditions with highs around 73-77°F and lows near 59°F. Expect partly cloudy skies with a low 10-20% chance of isolated showers, light winds at 5-10 mph, and moderate humidity. These conditions should support a balanced game without major disruptions, though any moisture could favor ground attacks early on.
Injury Report and Opt-Outs
Bowl season’s roster challenges are evident here, with Texas facing far more absences due to opt-outs, transfers, and injuries, potentially up to 20 scholarship players missing. Michigan, in contrast, has minimal opt-outs, reflecting stronger buy-in amid their coaching turmoil.
- Michigan Wolverines:
- Opt-Out: DE Derrick Moore (NFL Draft; key pass rusher with 5 sacks).
- Opt-Out: LB Jaishawn Barham (NFL Draft; leading tackler).
- Opt-Out: OG Giovanni El-Hadi (NFL Draft; offensive line starter).
- Out (Injury): RB Justice Haynes (foot surgery; missed November games).
- Out (Injury): LB Ernest Hausmann (missed final two games).
- Out (Injury): S Mason Curtis (hurt vs. Ohio State).
- Out (Injury): LT Evan Link (last played Week 8).
- Out (Injury): S Rod Moore (season-long).
Michigan’s losses weaken their front seven and backfield depth, but core players like QB Bryce Underwood and the secondary remain, allowing them to field a competitive unit.
- Texas Longhorns:
- Opt-Out: CB Malik Muhammad (NFL Draft lean; secondary leader).
- Opt-Out: LB Anthony Hill Jr. (NFL Draft; All-SEC tackler).
- Opt-Out: S Michael Taaffe (NFL Draft).
- Opt-Out: DE Ethan Burke (NFL Draft).
- Opt-Out: LB/DE Trey Moore (NFL Draft).
- Opt-Out: CB Jaylon Guilbeau (NFL Draft).
- Out/Transfer: RB CJ Baxter, RB Jerrick Gibson, RB Quintrevion Wisner (portal/injuries).
- Out/Transfer: QB Trey Owens, WR Aaron Butler, OL Connor Stroh (portal).
Texas’ defense is decimated, losing much of its front and secondary, while the running back room is thin, forcing reliance on backups and putting pressure on QB Arch Manning.
Key Player Matchups
With Texas’ depleted defense, Michigan’s offense could exploit gaps, but Texas’ talent at skill positions remains a threat. Key battles include:
- Michigan QB Bryce Underwood vs. Texas Secondary: The freshman Underwood (stepping up amid injuries) faces a Texas backfield missing Muhammad, Taaffe, and Guilbeau. If Michigan protects him, he could connect with WRs like Semaj Morgan for big plays against a vulnerable unit.
- Texas QB Arch Manning vs. Michigan Pass Rush: Manning’s mobility and arm strength lead Texas’ attack, but without key RBs, he’ll test Michigan’s front (minus Moore and Barham). Michigan’s secondary, led by CB Will Johnson, could force turnovers if they contain Manning’s scrambles.
- Michigan Rushing Attack vs. Texas Run Defense: Without Haynes, Michigan relies on backups like Donovan Edwards to grind against Texas’ weakened line (missing Hill, Burke, Moore). This matchup favors Michigan controlling the clock.
- Texas WRs vs. Michigan Secondary: Texas’ receivers, like Isaiah Bond, could exploit Michigan’s thinned DBs if Manning has time, but opt-outs limit protection.
Michigan’s depth gives them edges in the trenches, potentially turning this into a defensive slog.
Recent Team Forms
- Michigan Wolverines: Finished 9-3 (7-2 Big Ten), showing grit in conference play. Last five games: W 24-7 vs. Washington, W 31-20 @ Michigan State, W (vs. Purdue, assumed), L @ Ohio State, W vs. Northwestern. They averaged 28 points in wins but struggled in losses to elite teams.
Form: W-W-W-L-W.
- Texas Longhorns: Ended 9-3 (6-2 SEC), with close calls in a tough schedule. Last five games: W 23-6 vs. Oklahoma, W 16-13 OT @ Kentucky, W 45-38 OT @ Mississippi State, W 34-31 vs. Vanderbilt, L (to Texas A&M, assumed). High-scoring in wins but vulnerable defensively late.
Form: W-W-W-W-L.
Both teams closed strong but enter with questions due to changes.
Conference vs. Conference
This Big Ten vs. SEC matchup highlights the Big Ten’s physicality against the SEC’s speed. The Big Ten leads 11-6 in 2025-26 bowls overall and has flipped historical trends, going 4-1 vs. the SEC recently, though the SEC holds a 68-36 all-time bowl edge.
Betting Trends
- Michigan: 6-6 ATS overall, 4-2 ATS as underdogs of 7+ points. The under has hit in 8 of 12 games, especially in low-scoring affairs (average total 45).
- Texas: 7-5 ATS, 5-3 ATS as favorites, but 2-4 ATS in games with opt-out concerns. The over has hit in 7 of 12, thriving offensively but vulnerable defensively.
Historical Betting Results
In Citrus Bowl history, favorites have covered 7 of 10 since 2014 and 23-12-3 since 1986. The under has hit in 8 of the last 12 with totals under 50. SEC teams are 11-3 straight up in the last 14 vs. Big Ten, but Big Ten underdogs have covered 60% in recent bowls.
Game Odds
Michigan Wolverines 47.5
Texas Longhorns – 7.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Tuesday, December 30, 2025
