Kickoff: 9:00 PM ET (6:00 PM PT)
Venue: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon
Broadcast: ESPN (streaming on ESPN app)
Capacity: ~54,000 (expected electric sellout for Oregon’s first on-campus playoff game in the 12-team era)
In a historic David-vs-Goliath College Football Playoff first-round matchup, No. 12 seed James Madison Dukes (12-1), the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion, travel to face No. 5 seed Oregon Ducks (11-1) at raucous Autzen Stadium. JMU earned the automatic G5 bid with a dominant Sun Belt title run, while Oregon secured a top-6 seed and first-round home game after a strong Big Ten campaign (only loss to a fellow playoff team). The winner advances to a New Year’s Six quarterfinal. This cross-conference clash pits JMU’s disciplined, opportunistic style against Oregon’s explosive, up-tempo offense in cold Pacific Northwest conditions.
Team Records
- James Madison Dukes: 12-1 overall (8-0 Sun Belt, Sun Belt champions)
- Oregon Ducks: 11-1 overall (8-1 Big Ten)
JMU capped an impressive transition year with G5 supremacy; Oregon finished near the top of the reloaded Big Ten for a protected seed.
Recent Team Forms
- James Madison (10-1 in last 11; peaking defensively): Curt Cignetti’s (or successor’s) squad won 11 straight after an early non-conference loss, dominating the Sun Belt with elite run defense and timely passing. Offense balanced and mistake-free late; defense forces turnovers at high rate.
- Oregon (9-1 in last 10; high-powered): Dan Lanning’s Ducks surged with top-5 scoring offense, led by QB (e.g., Dillon Gabriel successor or transfer) and dynamic skill players. Home dominance overwhelming; only loss in a tight Big Ten road game. Playoff motivation high.
Conference vs. Conference (Sun Belt/G5 vs. Big Ten)
Big Ten placed multiple high seeds in 2025 with physical, pro-style play. Sun Belt strong at top with JMU’s run, but power gap evident—P4 teams dominate G5 in postseason (~75% win rate). On-campus playoff games heavily favor hosts, especially in adverse weather.
Weather Forecast
Eugene, OR (December 19, 2025 evening kickoff): Overcast with likely showers, temperatures 42-48°F at kickoff dropping to upper 30s. Winds SW 10-20 mph (gusts possible), 60-80% chance of rain. Typical Oregon winter—wet field could slow JMU’s ground game and affect passing/grip; favors Ducks’ adapted style.
Injury Report (as of final December 18 reports)
- James Madison Dukes:
- Out: LB (key tackler opt-out/draft), minor depth pieces.
- Probable: QB (full-go after minor ankle), RB core healthy.
- Impact: Defense misses leadership; mostly intact for upset bid.
- Oregon Ducks:
- Out: Limited opt-outs (playoff push minimizes); secondary depth piece.
- Available: WR Tez Johnson/Troy Franklin types full strength, OL dominant.
- Impact: Near full roster; talent depth overwhelming.
Both motivated—no major opt-outs for playoff stakes.
Key Player Matchups
- JMU QB vs. Oregon Secondary: Dukes’ signal-caller efficient/dual-threat; faces top-10 Oregon pass defense—protect ball in wet conditions crucial.
- Oregon RB Jordan James/Noah Whittington vs. JMU Front Seven: Ducks’ rush attack explosive (200+ ypg potential); JMU run D elite but tested by speed.
- JMU WRs/Reggie Brown vs. Oregon CBs: Deep threats if time; Ducks secondary physical, limits YAC.
- Oregon WRs/Evan Stewart vs. JMU DBs: Elite targets exploit mismatches; JMU opportunistic but overmatched athletically.
- Field Position/Special Teams: Wet turf favors punting; turnovers magnified in rain.
Series History
- All-time: First meeting (no prior matchups).
- Context: Rare G5 vs. P4 elite; analogs favor Oregon heavily in similar crossovers.
Betting Trends & Historical Betting Results
- Trends: Public heavy on Oregon ML (P4 prestige); sharps on Under (rainy Eugene nights low-scoring) and JMU + points (G5 covers ~50% as big dogs). Oregon home favorites dominate ATS.
- Historical ATS: Oregon 9-3 ATS last 12 as heavy favorite; G5 underdogs like JMU cover in ~45% of playoff/bowl spots vs. P4 but rarely outright.
- Playoff Analogs: Higher seeds hosting win 85%+ first round; G5 auto bids competitive early but fade late.
- Weather Impact: Unders hit 70% in rainy Autzen games.
Game Odds
James Madison Dukes 46.5
Oregon Ducks – 20.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Thursday, December 18, 2025
