The Toledo Rockets (8-4) and Louisville Cardinals (8-4) clash in the 2025 Boca Raton Bowl, a matchup pitting a surging MAC squad against an ACC team looking to cap a resilient season with a ninth win. Toledo, under interim coach Robert Weiner after Jason Candle’s departure to UConn, rides a four-game winning streak and boasts one of the nation’s top defenses. Louisville, led by head coach Jeff Brohm, overcame injuries and upsets to secure bowl eligibility, relying on veteran quarterback Tyler Shough and a stout front seven. This neutral-site game in sunny Florida could hinge on defensive play, with both units ranking among the FBS elite in points allowed. Expect a low-scoring battle where turnovers and special teams prove decisive.
Venue Location
The game will be held at FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida. This outdoor venue, home to the Florida Atlantic Owls, has a seating capacity of approximately 29,419 and features a Bermuda grass field. Opened in 2011, it’s known for its intimate atmosphere and proximity to the Atlantic Ocean, providing a warm-weather escape for fans. The stadium includes modern amenities like high-definition video boards and premium suites, and has hosted the Boca Raton Bowl since 2014.
Kickoff is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN, with streaming available via ESPN+ and the ESPN app. Radio coverage includes the Toledo Sports Network and Louisville Sports Network.
Weather Forecast
Boca Raton’s December weather is typically mild and sunny. For December 23, 2025, expect a high of 81°F and a low of 70°F, with partly cloudy skies and a 25% chance of precipitation. Winds will be around 15 mph from the northeast, with humidity at approximately 69%. These conditions favor a fast track but could introduce light breezes affecting field goals and punts.
Injury Report
Both teams are dealing with significant absences, particularly in skill positions, which could force adjustments to run-heavy schemes.
Toledo Rockets Injuries:
- Noah Sanders (RB): Out (undisclosed, since November 29); impacts depth in the backfield.
- CC Ezirim (TE): Out (undisclosed, since November 29); weakens red-zone options.
- Zy’marion Lang (WR): Out (undisclosed, since October 25); a key receiver whose absence hurts the passing game.
- Jediyah Willoughby (WR): Out (undisclosed, since October 25); further thins the wideout group.
- Switzer (undisclosed): Questionable; uncertain to play.
- Yasin (undisclosed): Questionable; uncertain to play.
Louisville Cardinals Injuries:
- C. Bell (WR): Out (knee, torn ACL since December 10); a season-ending blow to the receiving corps.
- Isaac Brown (RB): Out (undisclosed); part of a depleted backfield.
- Multiple RBs (including all four scholarship backs per reports): Out (various injuries); forces reliance on backups like Keyjuan Brown.
- Other depth players: Questionable, with the team weathering injuries throughout the season.
Key Player Matchups
Defenses take center stage, but these battles could swing the game.
- Tucker Gleason (TOL QB) vs. Louisville Secondary: Gleason’s efficiency (over 2,500 passing yards, 20+ TDs) tests a Cardinals unit led by CB Quincy Riley (4 INTs), which ranks top-20 in pass defense.
- Tyler Shough (LOU QB) vs. Toledo Front Seven: Shough, a veteran transfer, brings experience (3,000+ yards, 25 TDs) against a Rockets defense allowing just 17.5 points per game, anchored by DT Judge Culpepper (8 sacks).
- Toledo RB Jerjuan Newton vs. Louisville LB T.J. Quinn: Newton (800+ rushing yards) faces Quinn (team-leading tackles), who could stifle the ground game in a depleted backfield matchup.
- Louisville WR Caullin Lacy vs. Toledo CB Avery Smith: Lacy’s speed (700+ yards) challenges Smith in coverage, potentially creating big plays if the Cardinals protect Shough.
Recent Team Forms
Toledo enters hot, while Louisville has been inconsistent but pulled off upsets.
Toledo Rockets (Last 5 Games): The Rockets averaged 32.4 points scored and 18.2 allowed, finishing on a four-game win streak. Form: W-W-W-W-L.
| Date | Opponent | Result |
| Nov 29 | @ Akron | W 41-14 |
| Nov 22 | vs. Miami (OH) | W 28-21 |
| Nov 15 | @ Eastern Michigan | W 35-17 |
| Nov 8 | vs. Central Michigan | W 42-24 |
| Nov 1 | @ Bowling Green | L 21-28 |
Louisville Cardinals (Last 5 Games): The Cardinals averaged 28.6 points scored and 24.4 allowed, with wins over ranked foes. Form: W-L-W-L-W.
| Date | Opponent | Result |
| Nov 29 | vs. Kentucky | W 31-24 |
| Nov 22 | @ Pitt | L 21-28 |
| Nov 15 | vs. SMU | W 35-31 |
| Nov 8 | @ Clemson | L 24-38 |
| Nov 1 | vs. Boston College | W 42-21 |
Conference vs Conference
This features the Mid-American Conference (MAC, Toledo) against the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC, Louisville). Historically, ACC teams hold a 25-15 edge over MAC opponents in bowl games since 2000, but MAC squads are 6-4 in the last 10 such matchups, often as underdogs pulling upsets.
Team Records
- Toledo Rockets: 8-4 overall (5-3 MAC), unranked but third in MAC standings.
- Louisville Cardinals: 8-4 overall (5-3 ACC), unranked but with wins over ranked teams like Clemson.
Series History
Louisville leads the all-time series 5-3, with games dating back to 1925. The Cardinals have won four of the last five, including a 33-0 shutout in their first meeting. Toledo’s largest victory was 41-7 in 1935. The series has been dormant since 1981, with an average of 28 combined points per game historically. At neutral sites, it’s 1-1.
Betting Trends
- Toledo is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games but 4-8 ATS overall this season.
- Louisville is 5-2 ATS as favorites and 3-3 ATS on neutral fields.
- The under has hit in 6 of Toledo’s last 8 games and in 4 of the last 6 series meetings.
- MAC teams are 6-4 ATS vs. ACC in bowls over the last decade.
Historical Betting Results
In the last five Boca Raton Bowls, favorites are 3-2 SU and ATS, with unders hitting in four. Louisville is 2-3 ATS in bowls since 2020, while Toledo is 1-4 SU/ATS in its last five bowls. Series games have gone under in 5 of 8 historically.
Game Odds
Toledo Rockets 43.5
Louisville Cardinals – 8.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Monday, December 22, 2025
