The 2026 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl features the Rice Owls (5-7) against the Texas State Bobcats (6-6) in a rematch of their 2023 First Responder Bowl encounter, where Texas State dominated 45-21. This G5 clash pits Rice’s struggling offense against Texas State’s balanced attack, with the Bobcats aiming for their second bowl win in three years under G.J. Kinne. Rice, in its second straight bowl under Scott Abell, looks to snap a three-game postseason losing streak. As a neutral-site game honoring military personnel, it highlights AAC vs. Sun Belt depth, with Texas State entering as favorites amid Rice’s late-season slide.
Venue Location
The game will be held at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. This 50,000-capacity venue, home to TCU football, has hosted the Armed Forces Bowl since 2006 and offers a patriotic atmosphere with military tributes.
Fort Worth’s proximity to Texas State (about 3-hour drive) could give the Bobcats a fan edge.
Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET (12:00 p.m. CT / 10:00 a.m. PT). The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Weather Forecast
Fort Worth’s forecast for January 2, 2026, predicts mild conditions with highs around 70°F and lows near 59°F. Expect partly cloudy skies with a low 10% chance of precipitation, winds at 7-10 mph, and comfortable humidity—favorable for passing but unlikely to alter strategies significantly.
Injury Report and Opt-Outs
Bowl attrition is light, but both teams face depth issues in key areas. Rice’s defense could be impacted, while Texas State’s skill positions show vulnerabilities.
- Rice Owls:
- Questionable: LB K. Blanton (undisclosed).
- Questionable: QB Chase Jenkins (leg; exited late season).
- Questionable: QB Drew Devillier (shoulder).
Rice’s QB room is thin, potentially forcing true freshman Patrick Crayton Jr. into action if backups falter.
- Texas State Bobcats:
- Questionable: RB Torrance Burgess (undisclosed).
- Questionable: S Bobby Crosby (head/neck; recovering from October injury).
Texas State’s run game and secondary could be compromised, but no major opt-outs reported.
Key Player Matchups
Texas State’s offense ranks top-50 nationally, while Rice struggles defensively (bottom-30 in yards allowed). Matchups favor the Bobcats’ balance.
- Rice QB E.J. Warner vs. Texas State Secondary: Warner (2,500+ yards) must navigate Texas State’s opportunistic DBs (top-40 interceptions). If protected, he targets WRs for big plays, but Texas State’s S could force turnovers.
- Texas State QB Jordan McCloud vs. Rice Pass Rush: McCloud (3,000+ yards) exploits Rice’s weak front (bottom-50 sacks). Rice’s DEs need pressure to disrupt.
- Texas State RB Ismail Mahdi vs. Rice Run Defense: Mahdi (1,000+ yards) tests Rice’s porous D (4.5+ yards/carry allowed).
- Rice RB Dean Connors vs. Texas State Front: Connors provides balance, but Texas State’s LBs limit gains.
Texas State’s edges in trenches could control the game.
Recent Team Forms
- Rice Owls: 5-7 (2-6 AAC), ended with losses including 52-3 at USF and 56-24 vs. UNT. Wins over UAB (24-17), but inconsistent. Form: L-L-W-L-L.
- Texas State Bobcats: 6-6 (3-5 Sun Belt), mixed with wins like 45-0 at West Virginia but losses in conference. Form: W-L-W-L-W.
Conference vs. Conference
AAC vs. Sun Belt: AAC leads all-time 58-23 (71.6%), with stronger bowl history (AAC 4-0 vs. Sun Belt in 2025 non-bowls).
Series History
Rice leads 2-3 all-time, but Texas State won the last meeting 45-21 in 2023 First Responder Bowl. Sparse history since 1920.
Betting Trends
- Rice: 9-4 ATS overall, but 3-2 as underdogs; over in 7 of 13 games.
- Texas State: 10-3 ATS, 4-1 as underdogs but strong as favorites; under in 5 of 7 with defense.
- General: Favorites 8-2 ATS in recent Armed Forces Bowls.
Historical Betting Results
Armed Forces Bowl favorites cover 8-2 ATS last 10; under hits in low totals. Sun Belt teams 1-0 vs. AAC in this bowl (2023 Texas State win).
Game Odds
Rice Owls 58.5
*Texas State Bobcats – 13.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Friday, January 1, 2025
