The AFC Wild Card round features a compelling matchup between the resurgent Los Angeles Chargers and the dominant New England Patriots. With the Chargers sneaking into the playoffs as a lower seed and the Patriots securing the top spot in the AFC East, this game pits a high-powered offense against a stout defense in a classic playoff scenario. Below is a comprehensive breakdown of all key aspects.
Venue Location
The game will be held at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. This outdoor venue, home to the Patriots since 2002, has a capacity of approximately 65,878 and is known for its challenging winter conditions, which could play a factor in this mid-January contest.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 PM ET (5:00 PM PT).
Broadcast: The game will be broadcast nationally on NBC: Mike Tirico, Cris Collinsworth, Melissa Stark (field reporter)
Westwood One: Tom McCarthy, Derek Rackley
Streaming on Peacock, marking a primetime slot for this playoff opener.
Weather Updates
Forecasts indicate cold and potentially inclement conditions typical for New England in January. Expect daytime highs around 41°F, dropping to lows in the mid-20s to low 30s by game time. Skies will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of light freezing rain or precipitation during the evening. Winds will be light and variable, but humidity could reach 85%, making it feel even chillier. These conditions favor teams accustomed to outdoor play, potentially impacting passing games and favoring run-heavy strategies.
Injury Report
Both teams enter the playoffs relatively healthy, but key players are being monitored. Here’s the latest from practice reports as of January 8-9, 2026:
Los Angeles Chargers:
QB Justin Herbert (Left Hand): Full participation – He was rested in Week 18 but reports feeling positive and ready for action.
CB Donte Jackson (Ankle): Limited.
RB Omarion Hampton: Did not practice Thursday, but the team is optimistic for his availability.
Overall: The Chargers had a lengthy list early in the week but appear close to full strength, with Coach Jim Harbaugh noting the team is “almost 100%” heading into the weekend.
New England Patriots:
OT Vederian Lowe (Illness): Did not participate.
CB Alex Austin (Wrist): Limited.
WR Kayshon Boutte (Hamstring): Limited.
LB Harold Landry (Knee): Limited.
G Jared Wilson: Limited – A rookie starter on the offensive line, his status is crucial against the Chargers’ pass rush.
Overall: Four players were sidelined Thursday, raising concerns about the offensive line’s depth. The Patriots have several worrying updates but expect most to play.
Injuries could tilt the trenches, where both teams boast strong defensive fronts.
Player Matchups
This game hinges on several high-profile battles, particularly in the passing and rushing games:
QB Justin Herbert (Chargers) vs. QB Drake Maye (Patriots): The best quarterback duel of Wild Card weekend. Herbert’s arm talent and mobility will test the Pats’ secondary, while Maye, a potential 2025 MVP candidate, thrives at home. Expect big plays if protection holds.
Chargers Pass Rush (Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack) vs. Patriots Offensive Line: New England’s line features rookies like G Jared Wilson and OT Will Campbell, who could struggle against LA’s veteran edge rushers. Pressuring Maye is key for the Chargers.
Patriots Running Backs (Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson) vs. Chargers Front Seven: The Pats’ balanced run game will be crucial in cold weather. Stevenson could exploit LA’s run defense for 75+ combined rushing/receiving yards.
Chargers S Derwin James vs. Patriots Receivers: James, a “special player,” will shadow key targets and disrupt underneath routes.
Patriots Pass Rush vs. Justin Herbert: New England’s defense must generate pressure to limit Herbert’s deep throws, as both teams excel at containing explosive passes.
These matchups emphasize trench warfare and quarterback protection in what could be a low-scoring affair.
Recent Team Forms
Chargers: Entered the playoffs on a mixed note but showed resilience. They went 2-1 in their last three games overall, with strong defensive performances limiting opponents’ yards. Offensively, they’ve leaned on Herbert’s efficiency and a revitalized run game, though injuries tested depth. Overall 2025 stats: 5,675 total yards, 36 TDs.
Patriots: Red-hot, winning 9 of their last 10 games to close the regular season. Their defense has been elite, with 48 sacks and only 10 INTs allowed, while the offense balanced passing (3,953 yards) and rushing (2,067 yards). This form makes them heavy favorites at home.
Series History
The Patriots hold a commanding edge in this rivalry, leading 27-17-2 all-time (including 3-1 in playoffs). They’ve won 7 of the last 10 meetings, often in high-stakes games. Notable: New England’s last home playoff win over LA was in 2007. The Chargers are 2-1 outright in their most recent three matchups, showing they can compete, but historical trends favor the Pats in cold-weather postseason games.
Betting Trends
Patriots: 7-3 ATS in last 10 games; 9-1 SU overall. Strong at home (6-2 ATS) and in playoffs.
Chargers: 2-1 ATS in last three vs. Pats; 5-4 ATS as underdogs this season. They’ve hit the under in 6 of last 8 road games.
Overall: The under has cashed in 7 of the last 10 head-to-head matchups, especially in cold weather. Both defenses rank top-10 against the pass, supporting low-scoring trends.
CHARGERS NOTES:
• CHARGERS qualified for postseason in consecutive seasons for 1st time since 4 straight playoff appearances from 2006-09. • QB JUSTIN HERBERT ranked tied-7th with 26 TD passes, 8th with 340 completions & 9th with 3,727 pass yards in 2025 & is 3rd player ever (HOFer Peyton Manning & Russell Wilson) with 3,000+ pass yards & 20+ TD passes in each of his 1st 6 seasons. Had TD pass in 15 games this season, 1 of 5 QBs to do such. Has 2,285 career completions, most by a player in his 1st 6 seasons in NFL history & has 24,820 pass yards, 2nd most (HOFer Peyton Manning – 24, 885 pass yards) by a player in 1st 6 seasons in NFL history. Aims for 3rd in row in postseason with TD pass. • RB OMARION HAMPTON ranked 8th among rookie RBs this season with 737 scrimmage yards & 5 TDs. Is 1 of 5 rookies this season with 60+ scrimmage yards in 8+ games. Aims for 3rd in row with TD. • WR KEENAN ALLEN ranks 2nd with 1,055 receptions & 5th with 12,051 rec. yards since 2013 & became fastest player in NFL history to reach 1,000 career receptions (159 games). Has 336 rec. yards & 3 TDs in 5 career playoff games. Had 75 rec. yards & TD in last playoff meeting. • TE ORONDE GADSDEN ranked 6th among rookies with 664 rec. yards this season. • LB KHALIL MACK ranks tied-1st with 36 FF & 4th with 113 sacks since 2014 & is 1 of 2 (HOFer Kevin Greene) with 35+ sacks with 3 different teams since 1982. Aims for 3rd in row in postseason with sack & 6th in row with TFL. • LB TULI TUIPULOTU ranked 6th with career-high 13 sacks this season. Had sack in 2 of his last 3 reg. season games. • LB DAIYAN HENLEY had 6+ tackles in 3 of his last 4 reg. season games. Had 10 tackles in 2024 Wild Card game at Hou. • CB BENJAMIN ST-JUSTE aims for 3rd in row with PD. • S DERWIN JAMES tied his career-high with 3 INTs this season. Had PD in 2 of his last 3 reg. season games. Has 7+ tackles in 3 of his last 4 postseason games. • S TONY JEFFERSON had career-high 7 PD in 2025. Had 8+ tackles in 2 of his last 3 reg. season games. Had FF & FR in 2024 Wild Card game.
PATRIOTS NOTES:
• PATRIOTS won AFC East for 1st time since 2019 & qualified for playoffs for 1st time since 2021. • QB DRAKE MAYE ranked 3rd with career-high 31 TD passes & 4th with career-high 4,394 pass yards in 2025 & is 6th QB under 24 in NFL history with 4,000+ pass yards & 30+ TD passes in a single season. Became 3rd player under 24 all-time with 2+ TD passes & 100+ rating in 10 games in a single season & 2nd player under 24 all-time (Patrick Mahomes) with 12+ games with 100+ passer rating. Has 2+ TD passes in 11 games this season, 1 of 2 QBs (Matthew Stafford) to do such. Aims for 1st career playoff start. • RB RHAMONDRE STEVENSON had career-high 9 scrimmage TDs this season. Aims for 3rd in row with 100+ scrimmage yards & 4th in row with TD. • RB TREVEYON HENDERSON ranked 2nd among rookies with 911 rush yards & 1,132 scrimmage yards in 2025. Has 75+ scrimmage yards in 5 of his last 6 reg. season games at home. Became 3rd rookie in NFL history (Saquon Barkley & HOFer Lenny Moore) with 4+ rush TDs of 50+ yards & 4th rookie in NFL history (HOFer Lenny Moore, Doug Martin & Adrian Peterson) with multiple 50+ yard rush TDs in a single game (Week 10). • WR STEFON DIGGS ranks 4th since 2015 with 909 rec. yards in postseason. Aims for 15th career playoff appearance. Had 100+ rec. yards in 2 of his last 3 reg. season games. • TE HUNTER HENRY had career-high 768 rec. yards & had 7 TD catches this season. Had TD reception in 2 of his last 3 reg. season games. • LB K’LAVON CHAISSON had career-high 7.5 sacks, 10 TFL & 2 FFs in 2025. • CB CHRISTIAN GONZALEZ had 10 PD in 2025, his 2nd consecutive season with 10+ PD. Had PD in 5 of his last 6 reg. season games at home. • CB MARCUS JONES had career-high 3 INTs this season. • S JAYLINN HAWKINS ranked tied-8th with career-high 4 INTs this season & aims for 3rd in row with INT. Had PD in 4 of his last 5 reg. season games. Aims for 1stcareer playoff appearance.
Game Odds
Los Angeles Chargers 45.5
New England Patriots – 3.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Saturday, January 10, 2026
