The College Football Playoff semifinals conclude with a Big Ten rematch as the No. 5-seeded Oregon Ducks seek revenge against the undefeated No. 1-seeded Indiana Hoosiers. Oregon advanced with a 51-34 first-round win over James Madison and a 23-0 shutout of Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl quarterfinal, while Indiana dominated the Big Ten Championship 27-17 over Ohio State and crushed Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl.
This game pits two elite squads vying for a spot in the national championship on January 19 in Miami, highlighting the Big Ten’s dominance this postseason.
Venue Location
Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, home of the NFL’s Atlanta Falcons and a premier venue for major college events. The domed stadium with a retractable roof ensures controlled conditions, though it may open if weather permits.
Kickoff is scheduled for
7:30 p.m. ET (4:30 p.m. PT / 5:30 p.m. MST / 6:30 p.m. CT). Broadcast on ESPN with Sean McDonough, Greg McElroy, and Molly McGrath.
Injury Report
Both teams are dealing with absences, but Oregon’s running back depth is particularly strained due to injuries and transfers.
Oregon Ducks
- Out: RB Jordon Davison (broken clavicle), WR Evan Stewart (undisclosed), RB Makhi Hughes (transfer portal), RB Jayden Limar (transfer portal), RB Da’Jaun Riggs (undisclosed), WR Kyler Kasper (transfer portal), WR Justius Lowe (undisclosed), DB Daylen Austin (transfer portal), DB Kingston Lopa (transfer portal), DB Sione Laulea (transfer portal), DB Solomon Davis (transfer portal), OL Gernorris Wilson (undisclosed).
- Questionable: None reported.
- Probable: RB Jay Harris (available despite transfer portal entry).
Oregon’s backfield relies heavily on Noah Whittington (829 yards, 6 TDs) and Dierre Hill Jr. (570 yards, 5 TDs) with Davison sidelined.
Indiana Hoosiers
- Out: K Brendan Franke (undisclosed), DL Stephen Daley (leg, season-ending), DE Kellan Wyatt (season-ending), RB Lee Beebe Jr. (leg, season-ending), S Bryson Bonds (season-ending), DB Amariyun Knighten (transfer portal), DL Andrew DePaepe (transfer portal).
- Questionable: LB Amari Kamara (shoulder).
- Probable: None reported.
Indiana remains mostly healthy, with no major surprises beyond long-term absences.
Key Player Matchups
This rematch features trench battles and quarterback duels that could decide the game.
- Oregon QB Dante Moore vs. Indiana Secondary: Moore (3,280 yards, 28 TDs, 9 INTs) must exploit mismatches without WR Evan Stewart. Indiana’s defense, allowing just 15.2 points per game, features DB D’Angelo Ponds (3 INTs) to contain Oregon’s passing attack.
- Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza vs. Oregon DL: Mendoza (3,463 yards, 41 TDs, 7 INTs) shredded Oregon for 285 yards and 3 TDs in their first meeting. Oregon’s front, led by DE Matayo Uiagalelei (10.5 sacks), must pressure him to force mistakes.
- Oregon RBs Noah Whittington & Dierre Hill Jr. vs. Indiana LB Aiden Fisher: With Davison out, Whittington (829 yards) and Hill (8.1 ypc) face Fisher’s unit (allowing 101 rushing yards/game). Controlling the ground could open play-action.
- Indiana WR Elijah Sarratt vs. Oregon CB Jabbar Muhammad: Sarratt (1,200+ yards, 12 TDs) is Mendoza’s top target. Muhammad (4 INTs) must limit big plays after Indiana’s 30-20 win exposed Oregon’s secondary.
Recent Team Forms
Oregon Ducks (13-1 overall, 8-1 Big Ten)
Oregon started 5-0 with wins over Montana State (59-13), Portland State (69-3), Oregon State (49-14), UCLA (34-13), and Michigan State (31-10). Their lone loss was 30-20 to Indiana. They’ve won eight straight since, including 21-7 over Wisconsin, 18-16 at Iowa, 42-13 over Minnesota, 38-17 at Washington, 35-0 over Washington State, 49-21 over Illinois, and CFP victories: 51-34 over James Madison and 23-0 over Texas Tech. Defense has been stellar, allowing 12.5 points in recent games.
Indiana Hoosiers (14-0 overall, 9-0 Big Ten)
Indiana opened 3-0 against Old Dominion (27-14), Kennesaw State (56-9), and Indiana State (73-0). They dominated Big Ten play: 63-10 over Illinois, 20-15 at Iowa, 30-20 at Oregon, 38-13 over Michigan State, 56-6 over UCLA, 42-13 at Michigan, 47-10 over Washington, 38-15 over Purdue, 66-0 over Nebraska. Won Big Ten Championship 27-17 over Ohio State and Rose Bowl 38-3 over Alabama. Offense averages 41.6 points per game.
Conference vs. Conference:
Big Ten vs. Big Ten
An intra-conference semifinal showcases the Big Ten’s strength (9-4 bowl record this season). Historically, Big Ten teams are 7450-5721-394 all-time (.564), with strong recent bowl performances (winning records in 9 of last 10 years). This matchup emphasizes the league’s depth, with both teams tested in conference play.
Series History
The teams have met five times, with Indiana leading 3-2. Oregon won in 1963 (28-22) and 1964 (29-21), Indiana in 2004 (30-24) and this season’s 30-20 victory in Eugene. This is their first postseason clash.
Betting Trends
- Oregon: 8-6 ATS (57.1% cover rate), 4-1 ATS as underdogs. Under hit in 6 of last 8 games.
- Indiana: 10-4 ATS (71.4% cover rate), 7-0 ATS as favorites lately. Over hit in 9 of 14 games, reflecting explosive offense.
Oregon is 3-1 ATS in bowls since 2020; Indiana 2-0 ATS in recent postseasons.
Historical Betting Results
Big Ten teams are 9-4 straight-up and 8-5 ATS in bowls this season. In intra-conference matchups (rare in bowls), favorites are 5-3 ATS since 2010. Rematches favor the first-game winner 60% of the time, but underdogs cover 55% in CFP semifinals. Value on Oregon +3.5 given revenge factor.
Game Odds
Oregon Ducks 48.5
Indiana Hoosiers – 3.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Thursday, January 8, 2025
