The 2026 FCS National Championship pits the unseeded Illinois State Redbirds against the No. 2-seeded Montana State Bobcats in a clash of Missouri Valley Football Conference (MVFC) grit versus Big Sky Conference dominance. This marks the first-ever meeting between the two programs, with Montana State entering as heavy favorites after a dominant season, while Illinois State has authored one of the most improbable playoff runs in FCS history. The Bobcats aim for their first national title since 1984, having finished as runners-up in 2021 and 2024. The Redbirds, appearing in their second championship game (first since a 2014 loss to North Dakota State), seek their inaugural FCS crown after becoming the first team to win four straight road playoff games to reach the final.
Venue Location
FirstBank Stadium, located on the campus of Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tennessee. The open-air venue has a capacity of 40,350 and has hosted the FCS Championship since 2025, providing a neutral site for the title game.
Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. CT (7:30 p.m. ET, 5:30 p.m. MT).
Weather Forecast
Forecasts for Nashville on January 5, 2026, indicate mild winter conditions typical for early January in Tennessee. Expect daytime highs around 43°F to 57°F, with nighttime lows dipping to 34°F to 39°F. There’s a 25% chance of precipitation, potentially light rain, with winds around 8 mph and a UV index of 1. Overall, the weather should not significantly impact play, though cooler temperatures and possible dampness could favor teams with strong ground games. January averages in Nashville feature highs of 44°F-48°F and 3-8 days of rain, so teams should prepare for variable conditions in the open stadium.
Injury Report
- Illinois State Redbirds: No major injuries reported heading into the championship. The team dealt with early-season offensive line shuffling due to injuries but has stabilized during their playoff run, with key players like QB Tommy Rittenhouse and RB Victor Dawson fully available.
- Montana State Bobcats: Safety Caden Dowler, the Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year, suffered an injury early in the semifinal win over Montana and his status remains questionable. Dowler has been a defensive anchor with 90 tackles, 6 interceptions, and 2 forced fumbles this season; he plans to “do everything he can” to play. No other significant injuries noted, though the team has managed depth well throughout the year.
Key Player Matchups
This game features explosive offenses against opportunistic defenses, with several pivotal individual battles:
- QB Tommy Rittenhouse (ILST) vs. Montana State’s Secondary: Rittenhouse has thrown for 3,257 yards, 36 TDs (school record), and 12 INTs, adding 402 rushing yards and 7 TDs. He’ll test a Bobcats secondary that ranks high in turnovers but could be vulnerable if Dowler is limited.
- WR Daniel Sobkowicz (ILST) vs. CBs/Safeties (MTST): Sobkowicz leads with 78 receptions, 1,089 yards, and 18 TDs (7 in playoffs), holding school records in career receptions (257) and TD catches (40). Montana State’s pass defense must contain him to limit big plays.
- QB Justin Lamson (MTST) vs. LB Tye Niekamp (ILST): Lamson is a dual-threat star with 2,892 passing yards (72% completion, 28 TDs, 3 INTs) and 704 rushing yards (14 TDs). Niekamp, the MVFC Defensive Player of the Year, has 155 tackles and 14.5 TFLs, anchoring a Redbirds defense with 19 interceptions.
- RBs Adam Jones/Julius Davis (MTST) vs. ILST’s Run Defense: Montana State’s duo combines for over 2,000 rushing yards (Jones: 1,047 yards, 17 TDs; Davis: 1,100 yards). Illinois State’s front, led by Niekamp, will aim to control time of possession (36:28 average in playoffs) and force passing situations. theanalyst.com
Recent Team Forms
- Illinois State Redbirds: Winners of 8 of their last 9 games, including a remarkable playoff streak. Path to championship: First Round – W 21-6 at Southeastern Louisiana; Second Round – W 29-28 at No. 1 North Dakota State (upset defending champs); Quarterfinals – W 42-31 at No. 8 UC Davis; Semifinals – W 30-14 at No. 12 Villanova. They’ve thrived as road underdogs, outscoring opponents 122-79 in playoffs with a plus-5 turnover margin.
- Montana State Bobcats: On a 13-game winning streak after early losses, finishing 8-0 in Big Sky play. Path to championship: Second Round – W 21-13 vs. Yale; Quarterfinals – W 44-28 vs. Stephen F. Austin; Semifinals – W 48-23 vs. No. 3 Montana (rival Brawl of the Wild). They’ve dominated at home, averaging 38.1 points per game (8th in FCS) with a plus-16 turnover margin (tied for 3rd nationally).
Conference vs. Conference
MVFC (Illinois State) vs. Big Sky (Montana State). The MVFC has dominated recent FCS titles, with member schools appearing in 15 straight championship games and holding a 14-6 record in prior appearances. Illinois State is 4-3 all-time against current Big Sky teams, including recent playoff wins over UC Davis. The Big Sky has produced strong contenders, but Montana State seeks to end the MVFC’s recent
Series History
This is the first meeting between Illinois State and Montana State in football. No prior head-to-head games.
Betting Trends
- Montana State is 10-5 against the spread (ATS) this season, covering in all three playoff games. They’ve gone over the total in 8 of 15 games, thriving in high-scoring affairs (38.1 PPG).
- Illinois State is 9-7 ATS, including 4-0 in playoffs as underdogs. They’ve hit the under in 10 of 16 games, reflecting their possession-dominant style (36:28 TOP in playoffs).
- Neutral-site FCS games trend toward unders (55% in last 20 championships), but Montana State’s explosive offense could push totals higher. si.com +1
Historical Betting Results:
In recent FCS championships (last 10 years), favorites have won 7 of 10 outright but only covered the spread in 5. Overs have hit in 6 of 10, with average totals around 55 points. Montana State was a -3 favorite in the 2024 title game (lost 20-0 to South Dakota State, failing to cover). Illinois State’s only prior title game (2014) saw them as +7 underdogs in a 29-27 loss to NDSU (covered but under hit). Big Sky teams are 2-5 in title games since 2010; MVFC teams are 8-2.
Game Prediction: Montana State 31, Illinois State 24.
The Bobcats’ balanced attack and home-like momentum in a neutral site should prevail, but Illinois State’s road warrior mentality and turnover-forcing defense keep it close. Expect Montana State to cover the spread if Dowler plays, with the over hitting on explosive plays. Win probability: Montana State ~70-84% per advanced metrics.
