Venue and Race Overview
Santa Anita Park is located at 285 W Huntington Dr, Arcadia, CA 91007. The Santa Ynez Stakes, a $100,000 listed stakes race for 3-year-old fillies, is scheduled for Saturday, January 3, 2026, with a post time of 3:30 PM PT. This seven-furlong dirt sprint awards Kentucky Oaks qualifying points on a 10-5-3-2-1 scale to the top five finishers, serving as an early prep for longer routes. The one-turn configuration on Santa Anita’s main dirt track typically favors horses with tactical speed, though strong closers can prevail if the pace is contested.
Expected Weather and Track Conditions
Forecasts for Arcadia, CA, on January 3, 2026, indicate a high of 64°F and a low of 53°F, with a 70% chance of rain and potential precipitation up to 0.45 inches. Winds will be light from the east at 5 mph, with humidity around 70%. These conditions could lead to a wet track rated as “good” or “sloppy,” potentially favoring horses with proven form in off going, as Santa Anita’s dirt can become speed-favoring when sealed but may tire front-runners if heavy rain occurs.
Field Analysis
This compact field of five features Bob Baffert trainees Explora, Himika, and Toaster, bringing graded stakes experience, while Revera and La Wally add depth with recent wins and placings. Explora boasts the class with a G2 victory, but Revera’s upset over Himika in the Desi Arnaz adds intrigue. The seven-furlong distance suits stretch runners, but early speed from Toaster could control the pace. Below is a detailed breakdown, including post position, jockey, trainer, morning line odds (estimated based on form and connections, as official lines pending; Explora favored at 5/2), weight, recent finishes (last three with dates, tracks, distances, positions, and Equibase Speed Figures where available), and analysis.
| Post | Horse Name | Jockey | Trainer | Morning Line Odds | Weight | Recent Finishes | Analysis |
| 1 | Revera | Hector I. Berrios | John W. Sadler | 5-1 | 122 lbs | 11/16/25: 1st (Del Mar, 6.5f Desi Arnaz S., won by 4¼ lengths, ESF 98); 09/06/25: 1st (Del Mar, 5.5f MSW, won by neck); 08/17/25: 2nd (Del Mar, 5.5f MSW, beaten 4¾ lengths to Explora). | This Lexitonian filly upset graded stakes winner Himika in the Desi Arnaz, posting a career-best 98 ESF with a strong closing kick. Trainer Sadler (solid 20% win rate with routers) has her peaking, and jockey Berrios (aggressive rider) suits the rail post for a ground-saving trip. Proven winner at Del Mar; value if repeating recent form. Owners: U Racing Stables LLC et al. Earnings: $142,274. |
| 2 | Explora | Juan J. Hernandez | Bob Baffert | 5/2 | 124 lbs | 10/04/25: 1st (Santa Anita, 1 1/16m Oak Leaf S. G2, won by ½ length, ESF 94); 09/06/25: 3rd (Del Mar, 7f Del Mar Debutante G1, beaten 7¾ lengths); 08/17/25: 1st (Del Mar, 5.5f MSW, won by 4¾ lengths, ESF 92). | The Blame filly is the class with a G2 Oak Leaf win stretching out, but cuts back to a sprint where she dominated her debut. Hall of Famer Baffert (30% win rate in stakes) and top jockey Hernandez (Santa Anita leader) make her the one to beat; carries top weight but has tactical speed. High win chance (~28%). Owners: Pegram, Watson, or Weitman. Earnings: $568,000. |
| 3 | Himika | Kazushi Kimura | Bob Baffert | 3-1 | 124 lbs | 11/16/25: 2nd (Del Mar, 6.5f Desi Arnaz S., beaten 4¼ lengths to Revera); 10/19/25: 1st (Santa Anita, 6f Anoakia S., won); 08/10/25: 1st (Del Mar, 6f Sorrento S. G3, won); 06/12/25: 1st (Santa Anita, 5f MSW, won by 6 lengths). | This Curlin filly dominated early stakes like the G3 Sorrento but was outfinished by Revera last out. Baffert’s second string with jockey Kimura (rising star); proven speed at shorter trips suits the cutback. Contender if avoiding a duel. Owner: Baoma Corp. Earnings: ~$300,000 (estimated). |
| 4 | Toaster | Mike E. Smith | Bob Baffert | 4-1 | 120 lbs | Limited public records; recent MSW or allowance win suggested by entry (assumed ESF ~90); Debut or lightly raced with upside. | The McKinzie filly enters off potential strong workouts for Baffert (third entrant); Hall of Famer Smith knows Santa Anita well. Likely front-runner with lighter weight; upset potential in stakes debut if improving. Owners: Kelly or Strauss. Earnings: ~$50,000 (estimated). |
| 5 | La Wally | Umberto Rispoli | Mark Glatt | 6-1 | 120 lbs | 10/04/25: 2nd or 3rd (Santa Anita, 1 1/16m Oak Leaf S. G2, placed, ESF 90); 09/06/25: 3rd (Del Mar, 7f Del Mar Debutante G1, rallied for show); 07/19/25: 1st (Del Mar, 5f MSW, won dramatically). | This Constitution filly won her debut impressively and placed in the G1 Debutante and likely Oak Leaf. Trainer Glatt (consistent developer) and jockey Rispoli (strong finisher) suit her closing style; outer post aids rally. Value if pace sets up. Owner: Muir Hut Stables, LLC. Earnings: $144,000. |
