The 2025-26 college football bowl season brings an inter-conference matchup in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl between the ACC’s Wake Forest Demon Deacons and the SEC’s Mississippi State Bulldogs. Wake Forest finished 8-4 overall and 4-4 in the ACC, showing defensive grit but offensive inconsistencies. Mississippi State, at 5-7 and 1-7 in the SEC, earned a bowl berth despite the losing record due to high APR scores filling available slots. This game pits Wake’s balanced approach against Mississippi State’s rebuilding offense under coach Jeff Lebby.
Venue Location
The game takes place at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. This NFL venue, home to the Carolina Panthers, seats over 74,000 and has hosted the Duke’s Mayo Bowl since 2002, offering a neutral-site atmosphere with modern amenities.
Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET. The game will air nationally on ESPN.
Weather Forecast
Charlotte’s early January weather is expected to be cool and mostly clear. Daytime highs around 50-59°F with nighttime lows dipping to 32-39°F. There’s a 25% chance of precipitation, possibly light showers, with winds at 5-6 mph and humidity around 60-70%. Conditions should be playable but chilly for an evening kickoff—fans should bundle up.
Injury Report
Wake Forest Demon Deacons:
The Deacons are dealing with several absences. Running back Ajongo is out for the season with a knee injury. Defensive lineman M. Ibirogba is doubtful due to an undisclosed issue. Other potential concerns include tight end Devin Kylany and defensive back Rushaun Tongue, listed as questionable earlier in the season, though updates are limited. Opt-outs may affect depth, but core starters like QB Deshawn Purdie are expected to play.
Mississippi State Bulldogs:
The Bulldogs have a few key question marks. Defensive lineman W. Whitson is questionable with an undisclosed injury. Offensive guard B. Smith is also questionable (undisclosed), while defensive end Dingle Jr. is out for the season with a leg injury. Running back Davon Booth was on the Egg Bowl injury report but is expected back. Opt-outs could thin the roster further, though QB Blake Shapen is confirmed to start.
Key Player Matchups
This matchup could turn on offensive explosiveness versus defensive resilience, with several pivotal battles.
- Wake Forest QB Deshawn Purdie vs. Mississippi State Secondary: Purdie threw for 8 touchdowns and led the Deacs in passing efficiency, but he’ll face a Bulldogs secondary that allowed over 250 passing yards per game. Safety Isaac Smith (key tackler for MSU) will need to contain Purdie’s mobility.
- Mississippi State QB Blake Shapen vs. Wake Forest Defensive Backs: Shapen posted 2,431 passing yards, 15 TDs, and 8 INTs, adding rushing threat. He’ll test Wake’s strong safeties like Nick Andersen (70.0+ coverage grade) and Davaughn Patterson. Wake’s pass defense ranked solidly, potentially forcing turnovers.
- Wake Forest RB Demond Claiborne vs. Mississippi State Front Seven: Claiborne rushed for consistent yards behind a solid line. MSU’s defensive line, led by Fluff Bothwell, must improve against the run after struggling in SEC play.
- Mississippi State WR Brenen Thompson vs. Wake Forest CBs: Thompson’s speed (top receiver) could exploit mismatches against corners like Karon Prunty, setting up big plays if Shapen has time.
Recent Team Forms
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Last 5 Games): Wake went 3-2 in their final five, closing with a gritty 13-12 win over SMU. Key results: L 42-7 at FSU, L at UVA (score not specified, but loss), W 13-12 vs SMU, earlier wins including 42-10 over Western Carolina. They averaged 20 points offensively but held opponents under 25 in wins.
Mississippi State Bulldogs (Last 5 Games): MSU finished 1-4 in their last five, with losses piling up in SEC play. Results: L 45-38 vs Texas, L 41-21 vs Georgia, L 49-27 at Missouri, L to Ole Miss (Egg Bowl), but a W 38-35 at Arkansas. Offense averaged 30+ points, but defense surrendered 40+ in three losses.
Conference vs. Conference
ACC vs. SEC. The SEC has dominated bowl matchups historically, holding a 37-24 edge over the ACC since 1998 and a .561 overall bowl win percentage. However, the ACC has shown recent competitiveness, going 7-4 head-to-head in some seasons, though the SEC’s depth often prevails in postseason play.
Series History
Mississippi State leads 1-0. The lone meeting was in the 2011 Music City Bowl, where the Bulldogs won 23-17. The teams haven’t played in over 14 years, making this a rare rematch.
Betting Trends
- Wake Forest: 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games, including 4-2 ATS as underdogs this season. The over hit in 5 of 12 games, but they’ve trended under in low-scoring wins.
- Mississippi State: 3-2 ATS in their last 5, but 4-8 ATS overall in 2025. They’ve gone over in 7 of 12 games, driven by high-scoring losses.
Historical Betting Results
The Duke’s Mayo Bowl (formerly Belk Bowl) has a 12-10 over record all-time. Underdogs are 4-2 ATS in the last six games, with overs also 4-2 in that span. Recent examples: 2024 Minnesota covered as -10 favorite (under hit); 2023 West Virginia failed to cover as -6.5 but over cashed. Favorites have a slight edge overall (10-12 ATS since 2002), but underdogs thrive in close spreads like this.
Game Odds
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 53.5
Mississippi State Bulldogs – 3
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Friday, January 1, 2025
