The 2025-26 college football bowl season features an intriguing matchup in the Trust & Will Holiday Bowl, pitting the Arizona Wildcats from the Big 12 against the SMU Mustangs from the ACC. Arizona enters with a strong 9-3 record, having finished 6-3 in conference play and ranked around No. 17-21 nationally. SMU, in its second year in the ACC, comes in at 8-4 overall and 6-2 in the league, showing resilience despite some inconsistencies. This game represents a clash of styles, with Arizona’s balanced attack facing SMU’s high-powered offense.
Venue Location
The game will be held at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego, California. This modern venue, home to the San Diego State Aztecs, has a capacity of about 35,000 and offers a scenic coastal setting for the annual Holiday Bowl.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET (5:00 p.m. PT / 6:00 p.m. MST). The game will be broadcast nationally on FOX.
Weather Forecast
San Diego’s mild winter climate should provide favorable conditions. Expect mostly sunny skies with daytime highs around 64-66°F and lows in the 50s. There’s a low chance of precipitation (possibly a few light showers), with humidity around 78% and light winds of 5-10 mph. No major weather disruptions are anticipated, making it ideal for an outdoor evening game.
Injury Report
Arizona Wildcats: The Wildcats are relatively healthy heading into the bowl but will miss several contributors, particularly on offense. Wide receivers Rex Haynes (undisclosed), Jeremiah Patterson (undisclosed), and Landon Kelsey (undisclosed) are out, along with tight end Kellan Ford (undisclosed). Defensive lineman Powell is sidelined for the season with a leg injury. On a positive note, defensive tackle Tia Savea is expected to return after missing time. Arizona plans to keep opt-out announcements under wraps until game time, but most key starters are anticipated to play.
SMU Mustangs:
SMU has a few question marks but appears mostly intact. Tight end Chase Randall is out with an undisclosed injury. Running back or receiver Green (undisclosed) and Rogers (undisclosed) are also sidelined. Defensive end Aakil Washington, defensive tackle Jonathan Jefferson, cornerback La’Modrick Spencer, and wide receiver Isaiah Robertson are dealing with issues, though their statuses remain uncertain. The Mustangs’ depth has been tested by injuries throughout the season, but key offensive players like QB Kevin Jennings are expected to suit up.
Key Player Matchups
This game could hinge on several individual battles, particularly in the trenches and secondary.
- Arizona QB Noah Fifita vs. SMU Secondary: Fifita, a junior standout, threw for over 3,000 yards this season with a strong completion rate. He’ll test SMU’s defense, led by safety Isaiah Nwokobia (top tackler). If Fifita exploits mismatches, Arizona’s passing game could dominate.
- SMU QB Kevin Jennings vs. Arizona Defensive Backs: Jennings, SMU’s dual-threat leader, accounted for over 3,500 total yards and 30+ touchdowns. He’ll face Arizona’s elite secondary, including safeties Dalton Johnson (97 tackles, 4 INTs) and Genesis Smith (77 tackles, 8 PBUs). Arizona’s pass defense ranks highly, potentially forcing turnovers.
- Arizona DE Tre Smith vs. SMU OL: Smith, a senior edge rusher, leads Arizona with sacks and pressures. SMU’s offensive line has been solid but vulnerable to speed rushes, which could disrupt Jennings’ rhythm.
- SMU WR RJ Maryland vs. Arizona CBs: Maryland, a big-play threat, will challenge Arizona’s corners like Treydan Stukes. If Maryland gets loose, SMU’s explosive offense could flip the script.
Recent Team Forms
Arizona Wildcats (Last 5 Games)
Arizona finished strong, winning 4 of their last 5 to secure a 9-3 record. Key results include a 31-24 upset over a ranked opponent in late November and a dominant defensive showing in their finale. They averaged 28 points per game in this stretch, with their only loss coming in a close conference battle.
SMU Mustangs (Last 5 Games)
SMU went 3-2 in their final five, highlighted by a 26-20 OT win over No. 10 Miami and a 45-13 blowout at Boston College. They averaged 35 points but struggled in losses, including a high-scoring defeat to a top ACC foe. Their offense clicked late, but defense allowed 28+ points in three games.
Conference vs. Conference
Big 12 vs. ACC. The Big 12 had a strong 2025, with multiple ranked teams and a reputation for high-scoring affairs. The ACC was competitive but inconsistent, with SMU transitioning well after moving from the AAC. Historically, Big 12 teams hold a slight edge in non-conference bowls against ACC opponents, winning about 55% since 2020.Team Records
- Arizona: 9-3 overall, 6-3 Big 12 (Ranked No. 17-21 AP/Coaches)
- SMU: 8-4 overall, 6-2 ACC
Series History
The teams have met twice, splitting 1-1. SMU won the first matchup in 1938 (29-7), while Arizona triumphed in 1985 (28-6) in Tucson. This is their first encounter in nearly 40 years and first in a bowl setting.
Betting Trends
- Arizona: 7-4-1 ATS overall in 2025, including 7-2 ATS as favorites in their last nine games. They’ve gone over in 6 of 12 games but trended under in defensive-minded wins late in the season.
- SMU: 5-7 ATS in 2025, with a poor 2-8 ATS mark as underdogs of 2.5 points or more. They’ve hit the over in 8 of 12 games, reflecting their explosive offense.
Historical Betting Results
The Holiday Bowl has seen mixed ATS results. In the last 10 games (2015-2024), favorites are 6-4 ATS, with overs hitting in 6 of 10. Notable recent outcomes:
- 2023: USC 42-28 over Louisville (USC -7 covered, over 58 hit)
- 2022: Oregon 28-27 over North Carolina (Oregon -13 failed to cover, over 75 hit)
- 2019: Iowa 49-24 over USC (Iowa +1.5 covered, under 54.5) Underdogs have covered in 4 of the last 7, but favorites like Arizona in similar spreads have a 60% success rate.
oddsshark.com +2
Game PredictionArizona enters with momentum and a superior defense that should contain SMU’s offense, especially if key secondary players suit up. SMU’s explosiveness keeps it close, but injuries and Arizona’s balanced attack tip the scales. Expect a competitive game with Arizona pulling away late. Final score: Arizona 31, SMU 24. Arizona covers the -2.5 spread, and the total goes over 52.5.
Game Odds
Arizona Wildcats – 2.5
SMU Mustangs 52.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Friday, January 1, 2025
