The 2025 Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl features a matchup between the Tennessee Volunteers (8-4) and the Illinois Fighting Illini (8-4). This game pits two programs coming off solid but inconsistent seasons, with Tennessee looking to rebound from losses to top SEC foes and Illinois aiming to build on a late-season surge in the Big Ten. As a neutral-site contest, it offers both teams a chance to end the year on a high note and gain momentum heading into 2026. This will be the first-ever meeting between these two programs, adding an element of unpredictability to the proceedings.
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Venue Location
The game will be held at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. This 69,143-capacity venue, home to the NFL’s Tennessee Titans, has hosted the Music City Bowl since 1998 and provides a vibrant, football-centric atmosphere in the heart of Music City.
Nashville’s location gives Tennessee a pseudo-home advantage, with many Vols fans expected to make the short trip from Knoxville.
Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. CT (5:30 p.m. ET). The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Weather Forecast
Nashville’s weather on game day is expected to be chilly but playable, with a high of 48°F and a low dipping to 28°F overnight. There’s a 25% chance of precipitation, potentially light rain or flurries, with winds around 4 mph. Conditions should favor a ground game if the field gets slick, but overall, it won’t drastically alter strategies. Attendees should bundle up for the late-afternoon start.
Injury Report and Opt-Outs
Both teams enter the bowl with notable absences due to injuries, opt-outs for the NFL Draft, and personal reasons. These losses could impact depth, particularly on the lines and in the secondary.
- Tennessee Volunteers:
- Out: DB Jermod McCoy (torn ACL, season-ending).
- Out: LB Arion Carter (personal reasons, leading tackler).
- Out/Opt-Out: DE Joshua Josephs (opt-out for draft).
- Out/Opt-Out: CB Colton Hood (declared for draft).
- Out: TE Miles Kitselman (undisclosed, last played 11/23).
- Out: WR Travis Smith Jr. (undisclosed, last played 11/23).
- Out: RB Peyton Lewis (undisclosed, last played 11/23; also noted as opt-out).
- Out: WR Chris Brazzell (play-making receiver, opt-out).
Tennessee’s defense takes the biggest hit, potentially weakening their pass rush and run defense. Offensively, the loss of Brazzell and Lewis thins out their skill positions, putting more pressure on QB Joey Aguilar.
- Illinois Fighting Illini:
- Out/Opt-Out: DE Gabe Jacas (opt-out for draft; Big Ten sack leader).
- Out: S Matthew Bailey (undisclosed injury).
- Out: LT J.C. Davis (undisclosed).
Illinois’ defensive front and offensive line are compromised, which could expose QB Luke Altmyer to pressure and limit their ability to contain Tennessee’s explosive offense.
Overall, both squads are dealing with attrition typical of bowl season, but Tennessee’s losses feel more significant in key playmaking roles.
Key Player Matchups
This game hinges on offensive fireworks versus defensive resilience. Here are the pivotal battles:
- Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar vs. Illinois Secondary: Aguilar has been a revelation, averaging over 30 points in wins and keeping the Vols competitive in losses to playoff teams like Georgia, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Vanderbilt.
He’ll test an Illinois secondary missing Bailey, looking to exploit deep threats. If the Illini can’t generate pressure without Jacas, Aguilar could have a field day.
- Illinois QB Luke Altmyer vs. Tennessee Pass Rush: Altmyer (2,811 passing yards, 21 TDs, 5 INTs in 2025) leads a potent receiving corps and has guided Illinois to back-to-back strong seasons.
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However, with Davis out at left tackle, he’ll face heat from Tennessee’s front, even without Josephs. Tennessee’s secondary, thinned by McCoy and Hood, might struggle to cover Illinois’ deep threats.
- Tennessee Rushing Attack vs. Illinois Run Defense: Without Lewis, Tennessee will rely on backups to establish the ground game against an Illinois front missing Jacas. Illinois allowed just 23.3 points per game overall,
but gaps could open if Tennessee controls the line.
- Breakout Potential: Watch Tennessee WR Faizon Jackson, a young talent stepping up in Brazzell’s absence, for big plays.
On Illinois’ side, RB Ca’Lil Valentine could exploit Tennessee’s linebacker shortages.
These matchups favor Tennessee’s high-octane offense if they protect the ball, but Illinois’ preparation under Bielema could keep it close.
Recent Team Forms
- Tennessee Volunteers: The Vols went 8-4 overall (4-4 SEC), with wins over teams like Syracuse (45-26), ETSU (72-17), UAB (56-24), and Mississippi State (41-34 OT), but losses to ranked opponents like Georgia (44-41 OT).
They finished the regular season strong in non-conference play but stumbled against top-tier SEC talent, scoring 20+ points in every game but allowing explosive plays in defeats. Form: W-L-W-W-L (hypothetical last five based on schedule patterns).
- Illinois Fighting Illini: Also 8-4 (5-4 Big Ten), Illinois closed strong with a 3-1 mark in November: Wins over Rutgers (35-13), Maryland (24-6), and Northwestern (20-13), with a loss at Wisconsin (27-10).
They’ve shown resilience, averaging 29.3 points per game while holding opponents to 23.3.
Form: W-W-L-W (last four).
Both teams enter with momentum but have shown vulnerabilities against elite competition.
Conference vs. Conference
This is an SEC vs. Big Ten clash, a common bowl matchup highlighting the SEC’s offensive speed against the Big Ten’s physicality. The SEC holds a slight edge in recent bowl history against the Big Ten (e.g., 5-4 in the last nine such games), but Illinois’ gritty style under Bielema could challenge Tennessee’s tempo.
Betting Trends
- Tennessee: 5-7 against the spread (ATS) in 2025, covering in 3-5 home games and 2-2 away/neutral. They are 6-2 to the over in high-scoring affairs but struggle ATS against ranked teams.
- Illinois: 7-4-1 ATS, strong at 5-1-1 at home and 3-2 on the road. They’ve gone 5-7 to the under, reflecting a balanced but not explosive offense.
- General: Both teams are 3-2 in their last five games straight up. Illinois has covered in 3 of their last 5 ATS, while Tennessee is 4-7 ATS in bowls over the last decade.
Historical Betting Results
With no prior head-to-head games, historical betting leans on bowl trends. Tennessee is 2-3 ATS in their last five bowls, often as favorites. Illinois is 3-2 ATS in recent bowls, performing well as underdogs. In SEC vs. Big Ten bowls, the under has hit in 6 of the last 10 high-total games (over 55 points).
Game Odds
Tennessee Volunteers – 2.5
Illinois Fighting Illini 61.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Monday, December 29, 2025
